October 2021; who will win the 2024 election

[MargieCat]

Joe Biden will, as he is the incumbent president. Incumbents usually win, and usually win larger than what they won by originally. While I’m not saying historical patterns will necessarily continue, they probably will. Biden, while he’ll be 82 at his Second Inaugration, every president in the 20th and 21st centuries have ran for re-election, and I expect that to continue. Biden approval ratings will slowly recover once Infrastructure and reconciliation are passed in some form. All in all, Biden’s going to win re-election.

Realistically, this is what I think will happen.

Florida also tends to go for the incumbent.

I wonder if Biden is able to carry Florida. Bush carried it by 5 points (a larger margin than Trump's 2020 margin) in 2004 after the hanging chads incident in 2000. Obama then flipped it four years later.

[MargieCat]

Joe Biden will, as he is the incumbent president. Incumbents usually win, and usually win larger than what they won by originally. While I’m not saying historical patterns will necessarily continue, they probably will. Biden, while he’ll be 82 at his Second Inaugration, every president in the 20th and 21st centuries have ran for re-election, and I expect that to continue. Biden approval ratings will slowly recover once Infrastructure and reconciliation are passed in some form. All in all, Biden’s going to win re-election.

Realistically, this is what I think will happen.

Florida also tends to go for the incumbent.

I wonder if Biden is able to carry Florida. Bush carried it by 5 points (a larger margin than Trump's 2020 margin) in 2004 after the hanging chads incident in 2000. Obama then flipped it four years later.

Lmao, are you just ignoring Biden’s -9 approval rating like are y’all oblivious to that? And before you say “well Trump..” Trump had more hardcore support, Biden has very soft support. -9 for Biden garners electoral results closer to -15, -9 for Trump would produce less of a electoral tsunami.

You are ignoring the fact that it's really difficult to unseat a sitting president. 2020 was a special case because Trump was just that bad. But even so, it was a very close race. It was far from a landslide victory for Biden.