October 2021; who will win the 2024 election

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Imma start doing these monthly

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Biden. Historically speaking, incumbents have an advantage. Despite mediocre approvals, he's the most likely to win this far out.

Trump's support can only go down at this point. He’s lost support after the insurrection and first-time voters overwhelmingly do Democratic.

Also Presidents with mediocre approvals like Biden generally win (see Obama, Truman, Bush, Clinton)

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Everyone that thinks Joe Biden has a prayer of getting re-elected is living in an alternate reality.  The man is sinking, as much as I hate to imagine the idea of a Democratic president sinking but I've never considered myself to be a pure partisan hack so, there it is.  Democrats would be wise to shake up the party after the 2022 bloodbath and get a brand new leader for 2024.

Presidents with 45% approvals win

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Everyone that thinks Joe Biden has a prayer of getting re-elected is living in an alternate reality.  The man is sinking, as much as I hate to imagine the idea of a Democratic president sinking but I've never considered myself to be a pure partisan hack so, there it is.  Democrats would be wise to shake up the party after the 2022 bloodbath and get a brand new leader for 2024.

Presidents with 45% approvals win

You really feel enthused about going through another seven years of this?

Yea why not? I’ve liked the first year!

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Right now, Trump. The margins in the swing states were so narrow last time, and Trump won't have COVID and his mismanagement of it hanging over him in all likelihood. Biden's popularity is much lower than it was then, and if he can't get either the infrastructure bill or the reconciliation bill passed, he'll for sure lose Congress and be a total lame duck going into reelection.

Obviously things can change, but if I'm looking at the picture today, it doesn't look good for Biden against Trump.

His approval is 45% which is not bad and people who hated trump then still hate him now, which means a good portion of people who disapprove of Biden will still vote for him if the opponent is trump