October 2021; who will win the 2024 election

[Frodo]

President Biden.  By this point, it is an absolute certainty that Republicans will gain both houses of Congress back -the question is now by how much.  Even if (and when) both the infrastructure and reconciliation bills finally pass and get signed into law before the end of the year, the damage is already done.  But with Covid finally in the rearview mirror, I think there will be enough of a broadly-felt economic recovery by 2024 to carry him to re-election, combined with Republican overreach in 2023 when they vengefully try to impeach him (I don't think Mitch McConnell is strong enough anymore to prevent that from happening, at least in the House) for no particular legitimate reason.