October 2021; who will win the 2024 election
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  October 2021; who will win the 2024 election
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Poll
Question: .
#1
Joe Biden
 
#2
Kamala Harris
 
#3
Donald Trump
 
#4
Ron DeSantis
 
#5
Other Republican
 
#6
Other Democrat
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 105

Author Topic: October 2021; who will win the 2024 election  (Read 2609 times)
MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« on: October 09, 2021, 02:20:12 PM »

Imma start doing these monthly
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2021, 03:05:51 PM »

Donald “Fascist In-Chief” Trump by a 294-244 margin in the electoral college.
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Panhandle Progressive
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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2021, 04:32:48 PM »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cR4fXcsu9w

I'm wondering if Bill Maher nailed 2024 this far ahead.
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MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2021, 09:49:43 PM »

Biden. Historically speaking, incumbents have an advantage. Despite mediocre approvals, he's the most likely to win this far out.

Trump's support can only go down at this point. He’s lost support after the insurrection and first-time voters overwhelmingly do Democratic.
Also Presidents with mediocre approvals like Biden generally win (see Obama, Truman, Bush, Clinton)
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BG-NY
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2021, 11:43:50 PM »

Trump. Biden won't run, and Harris is a weak candidate in swing states.
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Frodo
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« Reply #5 on: October 10, 2021, 01:19:50 PM »
« Edited: October 10, 2021, 01:28:06 PM by Frodo »

President Biden.  By this point, it is an absolute certainty that Republicans will gain both houses of Congress back -the question is now by how much.  Even if (and when) both the infrastructure and reconciliation bills finally pass and get signed into law before the end of the year, the damage is already done.  But with Covid finally in the rearview mirror, I think there will be enough of a broadly-felt economic recovery by 2024 to carry him to re-election, combined with Republican overreach in 2023 when they vengefully try to impeach him (I don't think Mitch McConnell is strong enough anymore to prevent that from happening, at least in the House) for no particular legitimate reason.  
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President Johnson
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« Reply #6 on: October 10, 2021, 04:02:42 PM »

As of today, President Joseph R. Biden
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Chips
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« Reply #7 on: October 10, 2021, 04:04:11 PM »

Biden is the most likely individual to win in 2024 as of right now. Followed by Trump, DeSantis and Harris in that order I'd say.
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2021, 06:41:55 PM »

Joe Biden will, as he is the incumbent president. Incumbents usually win, and usually win larger than what they won by originally. While I’m not saying historical patterns will necessarily continue, they probably will. Biden, while he’ll be 82 at his Second Inaugration, every president in the 20th and 21st centuries have ran for re-election, and I expect that to continue. Biden approval ratings will slowly recover once Infrastructure and reconciliation are passed in some form. All in all, Biden’s going to win re-election.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #9 on: October 10, 2021, 07:21:18 PM »

Biden. He has the incumbency advantage and it’s hard to see him losing, especially to the person he beat in the first place. I don’t know who would vote for Biden in 2020 but Trump in 2024.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2021, 12:39:06 PM »


Not watching an 8-minute Bill Maher clip, who did he say wins?
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2021, 09:25:33 PM »

I think Biden has the single highest chance of legitimately winning the 2024 election.

I'm not sure what the chances of a successful Republican coup are, but I think they're higher that the 0% they ought to be.
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PSOL
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2021, 09:29:58 PM »

The Republican Party’s path to the presidency has shrunk to the point that they cannot win a free and fair election at this point. Instead, it is increasingly clear that Republicans see revolution as an easier path to power and will attempt to overthrow the present government around 2026, or the latest, 2028.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2021, 09:35:36 PM »

At this point, Biden is the single most likely person to win, though three years is an eternity.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2021, 09:42:12 PM »

Joe Biden will, as he is the incumbent president. Incumbents usually win, and usually win larger than what they won by originally. While I’m not saying historical patterns will necessarily continue, they probably will. Biden, while he’ll be 82 at his Second Inaugration, every president in the 20th and 21st centuries have ran for re-election, and I expect that to continue. Biden approval ratings will slowly recover once Infrastructure and reconciliation are passed in some form. All in all, Biden’s going to win re-election.
Realistically, this is what I think will happen.

Florida also tends to go for the incumbent.

I wonder if Biden is able to carry Florida. Bush carried it by 5 points (a larger margin than Trump's 2020 margin) in 2004 after the hanging chads incident in 2000. Obama then flipped it four years later.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2021, 01:36:34 PM »

Joe Biden will, as he is the incumbent president. Incumbents usually win, and usually win larger than what they won by originally. While I’m not saying historical patterns will necessarily continue, they probably will. Biden, while he’ll be 82 at his Second Inaugration, every president in the 20th and 21st centuries have ran for re-election, and I expect that to continue. Biden approval ratings will slowly recover once Infrastructure and reconciliation are passed in some form. All in all, Biden’s going to win re-election.
Realistically, this is what I think will happen.

Florida also tends to go for the incumbent.

I wonder if Biden is able to carry Florida. Bush carried it by 5 points (a larger margin than Trump's 2020 margin) in 2004 after the hanging chads incident in 2000. Obama then flipped it four years later.
Lmao, are you just ignoring Biden’s -9 approval rating like are y’all oblivious to that? And before you say “well Trump..” Trump had more hardcore support, Biden has very soft support. -9 for Biden garners electoral results closer to -15, -9 for Trump would produce less of a electoral tsunami.
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SN2903
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« Reply #16 on: October 12, 2021, 02:14:04 PM »

Donald J. Trump.

I am predicting Biden doesn't run for re-election. Nominee will be Harris or Warren.
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progressive85
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« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2021, 04:20:41 PM »

Everyone that thinks Joe Biden has a prayer of getting re-elected is living in an alternate reality.  The man is sinking, as much as I hate to imagine the idea of a Democratic president sinking but I've never considered myself to be a pure partisan hack so, there it is.  Democrats would be wise to shake up the party after the 2022 bloodbath and get a brand new leader for 2024.
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President of the civil service full of trans activists
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« Reply #18 on: October 12, 2021, 04:30:37 PM »

Trump's still the frontrunner, but I'm not writing off Biden until the existential dread that fills me upon every presidential election fills me on November 5, 2024.
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Heebie Jeebie
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« Reply #19 on: October 12, 2021, 05:05:35 PM »

Biden is an alpha and Trump is a pathetic little beta.  Biden is going to win.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #20 on: October 12, 2021, 05:43:58 PM »

Joe Biden will, as he is the incumbent president. Incumbents usually win, and usually win larger than what they won by originally. While I’m not saying historical patterns will necessarily continue, they probably will. Biden, while he’ll be 82 at his Second Inaugration, every president in the 20th and 21st centuries have ran for re-election, and I expect that to continue. Biden approval ratings will slowly recover once Infrastructure and reconciliation are passed in some form. All in all, Biden’s going to win re-election.
Realistically, this is what I think will happen.

Florida also tends to go for the incumbent.

I wonder if Biden is able to carry Florida. Bush carried it by 5 points (a larger margin than Trump's 2020 margin) in 2004 after the hanging chads incident in 2000. Obama then flipped it four years later.
Lmao, are you just ignoring Biden’s -9 approval rating like are y’all oblivious to that? And before you say “well Trump..” Trump had more hardcore support, Biden has very soft support. -9 for Biden garners electoral results closer to -15, -9 for Trump would produce less of a electoral tsunami.
You are ignoring the fact that it's really difficult to unseat a sitting president. 2020 was a special case because Trump was just that bad. But even so, it was a very close race. It was far from a landslide victory for Biden.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #21 on: October 12, 2021, 06:58:47 PM »

If against Trump -> Biden wins bigger than 2020
If against other R -> Biden wins roughly equal to 2020


It remains the case that the only potential matchup that worries me is Harris vs. DeSantis.
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MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2021, 04:28:07 PM »

Everyone that thinks Joe Biden has a prayer of getting re-elected is living in an alternate reality.  The man is sinking, as much as I hate to imagine the idea of a Democratic president sinking but I've never considered myself to be a pure partisan hack so, there it is.  Democrats would be wise to shake up the party after the 2022 bloodbath and get a brand new leader for 2024.
Presidents with 45% approvals win
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progressive85
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« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2021, 05:40:37 PM »

Everyone that thinks Joe Biden has a prayer of getting re-elected is living in an alternate reality.  The man is sinking, as much as I hate to imagine the idea of a Democratic president sinking but I've never considered myself to be a pure partisan hack so, there it is.  Democrats would be wise to shake up the party after the 2022 bloodbath and get a brand new leader for 2024.
Presidents with 45% approvals win
You really feel enthused about going through another seven years of this?
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MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2021, 06:04:14 PM »

Everyone that thinks Joe Biden has a prayer of getting re-elected is living in an alternate reality.  The man is sinking, as much as I hate to imagine the idea of a Democratic president sinking but I've never considered myself to be a pure partisan hack so, there it is.  Democrats would be wise to shake up the party after the 2022 bloodbath and get a brand new leader for 2024.
Presidents with 45% approvals win
You really feel enthused about going through another seven years of this?
Yea why not? I’ve liked the first year!
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