How do you think the Hispanic/Latino vote will trend in 2024?
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  How do you think the Hispanic/Latino vote will trend in 2024?
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Poll
Question: How do you think the Hispanic/Latino vote will trend in 2024?
#1
Rightward by an insignificant amount
 
#2
Rightward by a significant amount
 
#3
Leftward by an insignificant amount
 
#4
Leftward by a significant amount
 
#5
Unsure
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 39

Author Topic: How do you think the Hispanic/Latino vote will trend in 2024?  (Read 1021 times)
GregTheGreat657
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« on: October 09, 2021, 12:22:11 PM »

How do you think the Hispanic/Latino vote will trend in 2024?
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2021, 01:46:52 PM »

I think the Hispanic vote will definitely be between X<20% Dem, X>10% Dem
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dw93
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« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2021, 04:29:47 PM »

On balance slightly left. I think there has always been a pro incumbent trend with Latino voters as the last three elections with an incumbent seeking a 2nd term have shown (2004, 2012, 2020), so with the Democrats being the incumbent party, I think history suggests it'll trend slightly their way.
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« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2021, 05:40:08 PM »

“Swing D but trend R”

https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/hispanic-voters-and-the-american?

Quote
Democrats are still trying to dismiss the importance of the Hispanic swing. The new line is that Hispanic voters like to vote for incumbent Presidents. People cite Bush’s 2004 run, which got 44% of the Hispanic vote, as a parallel. This could be true, but I have my doubts. 2004 was an election where the incumbent won, by a larger margin than in 2000; Whites also shifted towards Bush in 2004. 2020, in contrast, was an election in which the incumbent lost; Hispanics moved in the opposite direction to Whites. In any case, the “Hispanics like incumbents” theory is drawn from a very small sample, has no solid theory behind, is more than a bit patronizing, and in general smells like an ad-hoc self-serving piece of bullsh**t. It might be right, I guess, but Dems who embrace this explanation risk giving Republican operatives four more years to run wild with their Hispanic outreach efforts. Not a smart move in my opinion.

OK, so if it’s not the incumbent advantage, what might it be? Various other theories include:

  • A concern for law & order and a dislike of “defund the police”
  • Annoyance with the term “Latinx”
  • A greater-than-realized concern for border security and dislike of illegal immigration
  • The macho culture of MAGA
  • Fear of socialism due to personal or ancestral experience with leftist regimes in Latin America
  • Hispanics assimilating into whiteness and acquiring the values of White voters

Any and all of these might be true. Or it might be, as David Shor says, that Hispanics are simply more conservative than we realize, and Trump’s performance is a kind of reversion to the mean.

But I think one big, powerful explanation has been sorely neglected: Economics.

The boom of 2014-2019 — and it was a boom, even though we kind of ignored it — was good for everyone, but in percentage terms it was especially good for Hispanics:



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dw93
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« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2021, 07:16:37 PM »

“Swing D but trend R”

https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/hispanic-voters-and-the-american?

Quote
Democrats are still trying to dismiss the importance of the Hispanic swing. The new line is that Hispanic voters like to vote for incumbent Presidents. People cite Bush’s 2004 run, which got 44% of the Hispanic vote, as a parallel. This could be true, but I have my doubts. 2004 was an election where the incumbent won, by a larger margin than in 2000; Whites also shifted towards Bush in 2004. 2020, in contrast, was an election in which the incumbent lost; Hispanics moved in the opposite direction to Whites. In any case, the “Hispanics like incumbents” theory is drawn from a very small sample, has no solid theory behind, is more than a bit patronizing, and in general smells like an ad-hoc self-serving piece of bullsh**t. It might be right, I guess, but Dems who embrace this explanation risk giving Republican operatives four more years to run wild with their Hispanic outreach efforts. Not a smart move in my opinion.

OK, so if it’s not the incumbent advantage, what might it be? Various other theories include:

  • A concern for law & order and a dislike of “defund the police”
  • Annoyance with the term “Latinx”
  • A greater-than-realized concern for border security and dislike of illegal immigration
  • The macho culture of MAGA
  • Fear of socialism due to personal or ancestral experience with leftist regimes in Latin America
  • Hispanics assimilating into whiteness and acquiring the values of White voters

Any and all of these might be true. Or it might be, as David Shor says, that Hispanics are simply more conservative than we realize, and Trump’s performance is a kind of reversion to the mean.

But I think one big, powerful explanation has been sorely neglected: Economics.

The boom of 2014-2019 — and it was a boom, even though we kind of ignored it — was good for everyone, but in percentage terms it was especially good for Hispanics:




Outside of screaming socialism to the high hills and convincing enough Cuban voters in Florida that Joe Biden would be Fidel Castro 2.0, what Hispanic outreach was there? I haven't seen any meaningful Hispanic outreach from the GOP since 2004.
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Leroy McPherson fan
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2021, 09:50:02 PM »

Significantly rightward
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THG
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2021, 12:59:19 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2021, 12:29:22 PM by I’M GONNA TOOOOOOOOM »

The Democrats haven’t been doing too hot with this demographic recently and Biden’s approvals with them are surprisingly poor, even according to more left leaning polls. That being said, I do think it depends on how much the incumbency advantage holds up and what candidate the Republicans put up, so for now I’ll be careful and only say slightly rightwards (outside of places like Southern Dade and the RGV which will swing more heavily rightward).
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2021, 01:29:46 PM »

Were there ever any polls that showed Obama’s approval among Hispanics during his tenure?
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2021, 01:30:51 PM »

If Biden runs again, probably a very slight leftward trend, though not necessarily one that transcends region.
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THG
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2021, 02:08:02 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2021, 02:11:29 PM by I’M GONNA TOOOOOOOOM »

Were there ever any polls that showed Obama’s approval among Hispanics during his tenure?

Yes, Obama was regularly above the 60’s in most cases.

I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a poll that has Biden above 60% with Hispanics, and certainly not recently (perhaps there were a few in his brief “Honeymoon” period).
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2021, 08:55:18 AM »

Insignificantly leftward
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2021, 11:56:18 AM »

My answer is basically "Hispanics are not a monolith" and trends will reflect that. Not out of the question to see Democrats to better in places like Arizona and New Mexico but continue to fall with Cubans and Tejanos.
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