What seats that will safe in 2022 may fall later in the decade?

[Tekken_Guy]

What seats that will be considered safe for the 2022 cycle do you think will flip later in the decade?

[Mr.Phips]

IN-01 or TX34 for Dems and GA-06 or GA-11 for Republicans.

[MargieCat]

TX-24 comes to mind.

[walleye26]

Depends how they are drawn, but SC-1, TX-24, and UT-4.

Maybe NE-2 if trends continue.

[Spectator]

Maybe GA-02 or NC-01 for Democrats if the rural black population keeps leaving.

[Mr.Phips]

Depends how they are drawn, but SC-1, TX-24, and UT-4.

Maybe NE-2 if trends continue.

NE-02 certainly isn’t safe.  It likely holds for Republicans in 2022, but it probably falls in the next Republican President’s midterm if Dems don’t nominate Kara Eastman.  Dems need an Abigail Spanberger type in that district, not an AOC type.

[GregTheGreat657]

PA-01, NY-24 basically seats that vote R because the R is a moderate, that will probably fall if a more generic R is nominated

[Tekken_Guy]

Victoria Spartz’s seat has a nonzero chance of being competitive again by 2030.

And depending on how it’s drawn Ann Wagner’s seat may be back on the playing field by then too.

I second Van Duyne and Mace. Burgess Owens will be easier to shore up but even he could be in trouble by 2030.

I’d say the new seat they drew for Wesley Hunt in TX could be a problem for the GOP eventually. Also, Van Taylor’s seat.

[GregTheGreat657]

MI-05 or OH-13

[amateur_psepho]

MI-05 or OH-13

neither of these will be safe after redistricting: mi-05 becomes a swing seat and ryans seat gets dismantled

[Non Swing Voter]

VA-1 if it resembles its current form. 

NE-2

A couple of the Miami districts that will supposedly be safe after redistricting.

[Pollster]

Prettymuch any seat that is suburban/highly educated and gerrymandered to remain R by connecting it to shrinking rural areas.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think most of these guesses will wind up being wrong because we fundamentally don't know what the next set of trends will be.  No one in 2011 would have said TX-32, GA-6, or (almost) WI-3 for example, so I expect this thread to be similarly off.  I also don't buy that we can just keep projecting Trump-era suburban trends forward into a world where Biden is the president.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think most of these guesses will wind up being wrong because we fundamentally don't know what the next set of trends will be.  No one in 2011 would have said TX-32, GA-6, or (almost) WI-3 for example, so I expect this thread to be similarly off.  I also don't buy that we can just keep projecting Trump-era suburban trends forward into a world where Biden is the president.

The suburban trend begun during the Clinton era. Trump just accelerated it.

[Xing]

GA-06, at least one of the TX seats, IN-05, probably at least one seat in MI and NY. Also, while one or all of Steele, Kim, and Valadao might be safe specifically in 2022 due to the environment, I have a hard time seeing any of them last until 2030, and I think two of them will lose in 2024.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think most of these guesses will wind up being wrong because we fundamentally don't know what the next set of trends will be.  No one in 2011 would have said TX-32, GA-6, or (almost) WI-3 for example, so I expect this thread to be similarly off.  I also don't buy that we can just keep projecting Trump-era suburban trends forward into a world where Biden is the president.

The suburban trend begun during the Clinton era. Trump just accelerated it.

I actually don't think that's accurate.  At least in the South, many suburban counties gave their largest margins of victory to Romney in 2012 or even Trump in 2016.  Many others had Romney 2012 and Bush 2004 almost identical for their best Republican performance (making Romney '12 the better performance relative to the NPV).