VA-Emerson: T-Mac +1

[Skill and Chance]

McAuliffe also leads among Black voters (72% to 25%), while Youngkin leads among White voters (53% to 45%) and Hispanic voters (55% to 45%).


Not one of these looks accurate.

Rule #1 of polling is don't focus on the cross-tabs.

This is the poll that got the 2020 PV accurate- last 2 polls were Biden +5 and Biden +4 at a time when others were showing a blowout.  This needs to be taken seriously. 

[Skill and Chance]

Tossup.

I do think T-Mac still wins narrowly.  This could be debate gaffe related.  In recent times, this makes the candidate underpoll fundamentals in the short term, but baseline partisanship eventually takes over.  See IA-SEN and 1st presidential debate in 2020.

[Skill and Chance]

So, the connection to Trump angle must not be working as easily (it should be) as it did in California? Is that accurate to say?

A big part of the CA story is that polling was wrong in the Dem's favor.  That can't be assumed here.  If CA had actually been No +15ish, the takeaways would have been very different.  That about matches up with a McAuliffe +1 result in terms of national environment interestingly.