VA-Emerson: T-Mac +1

[wbrocks67]

McAuliffe also leads among Black voters (72% to 25%), while Youngkin leads among White voters (53% to 45%) and Hispanic voters (55% to 45%).


Not one of these looks accurate.

[wbrocks67]

So, the connection to Trump angle must not be working as easily (it should be) as it did in California? Is that accurate to say?

Depends. We've gotten just as many T-Mac 5-7 pt leads as "closer" 1-3 pt leads

[wbrocks67]

So, the connection to Trump angle must not be working as easily (it should be) as it did in California? Is that accurate to say?

A big part of the CA story is that polling was wrong in the Dem's favor.  That can't be assumed here.  If CA had actually been No +15ish, the takeaways would have been very different.  That about matches up with a McAuliffe +1 result in terms of national environment interestingly.

I'm interested to see how the polling ends up in VA (and NJ). I would not be surprised if we have another situation where pollsters' LV models were very much to blame.

[wbrocks67]

Driving through the South Arlington barrio last week (to pick up my pizza at Pupatella's), I did see a surprisingly large amount of Youngkin lawn signage.

I've always maintained that the Latino embrace of the GOP within the last 1.5 years is because a large proportion are negatively affected by the Coronavirus restrictions and lockdowns.  

I believe there’s truth to this. I think a lot of people just don’t give a sh**t about COVID and never *really* have either, so a lot of people that used to vote pretty blue just voted red out of protest for the Democrats’ rhetoric on lockdowns and mask mandates. I think we’ve long since reached the point where it’s up to individual people to make their own adult decisions on what to do with their health and accept the risks of not getting the vaccine.

Not sure what the "Democrats rhetoric on lockdowns" is, since most elected Democrats were not running around yelling for "lockdowns" (lockdowns also were not a thing either, factually). Mask mandates are also *popular*, especially in Virginia.

And no, we have not reached the point where it's up to individual people, because we've been shown time and time again when people are left to their own devices, they f**k this entire thing up for everyone else. The majority of the public cannot be trusted to do the right thing, and that's been proved this entire situation.

Again, if anything, the vaccinated people are the people who should be made at the unvaccinated people, yet people want to believe in this fantasy narrative where vaccinated people are angry and want to take it out on ... the Democrats, who are the ones trying to get people vaccinated and to stop the spread, and not undermining it like Republicans are.

And if people ARE actively voting against the people actually trying to keep them safe and not get sick, then this country is even more messed up than i thought.