VA-GOV (Wason): McAuliffe +4
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  VA-GOV (Wason): McAuliffe +4
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Author Topic: VA-GOV (Wason): McAuliffe +4  (Read 1770 times)
Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #25 on: October 08, 2021, 10:48:53 PM »

My prediction is McAuliffe +2. There is probably about a 25% chance Youngkin wins.
No. There is a 100% chance Youngkin wins.

Both of you are trolling, though I think SnowLabrador's is unintentional, whereas Leroy McPherson fan's is purposeful and he realizes he's trolling.

I know my current prediction will raise an eyebrow or two, but it's Virginia, which broke for Biden by much more than 4 points...I'm currently going with McAuliffe+7.2, though this may change as the election draws nearer.
I’m not trolling. Just exaggerating a bit.

So you genuinely believe Youngkin is favoured?
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Leroy McPherson fan
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« Reply #26 on: October 08, 2021, 10:49:48 PM »

My prediction is McAuliffe +2. There is probably about a 25% chance Youngkin wins.
No. There is a 100% chance Youngkin wins.

Both of you are trolling, though I think SnowLabrador's is unintentional, whereas Leroy McPherson fan's is purposeful and he realizes he's trolling.

I know my current prediction will raise an eyebrow or two, but it's Virginia, which broke for Biden by much more than 4 points...I'm currently going with McAuliffe+7.2, though this may change as the election draws nearer.
I’m not trolling. Just exaggerating a bit.

So you genuinely believe Youngkin is favoured?
Yes. I agree with the Saagar Enjeti rule to always add at least 6% to the Republican.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #27 on: October 08, 2021, 10:52:28 PM »

My prediction is McAuliffe +2. There is probably about a 25% chance Youngkin wins.
No. There is a 100% chance Youngkin wins.

Both of you are trolling, though I think SnowLabrador's is unintentional, whereas Leroy McPherson fan's is purposeful and he realizes he's trolling.

I know my current prediction will raise an eyebrow or two, but it's Virginia, which broke for Biden by much more than 4 points...I'm currently going with McAuliffe+7.2, though this may change as the election draws nearer.
I’m not trolling. Just exaggerating a bit.

So you genuinely believe Youngkin is favoured?
Yes. I agree with the Saagar Enjeti rule to always add at least 6% to the Republican.

You have got to be kidding.
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Leroy McPherson fan
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« Reply #28 on: October 08, 2021, 10:53:46 PM »

My prediction is McAuliffe +2. There is probably about a 25% chance Youngkin wins.
No. There is a 100% chance Youngkin wins.

Both of you are trolling, though I think SnowLabrador's is unintentional, whereas Leroy McPherson fan's is purposeful and he realizes he's trolling.

I know my current prediction will raise an eyebrow or two, but it's Virginia, which broke for Biden by much more than 4 points...I'm currently going with McAuliffe+7.2, though this may change as the election draws nearer.
I’m not trolling. Just exaggerating a bit.

So you genuinely believe Youngkin is favoured?
Yes. I agree with the Saagar Enjeti rule to always add at least 6% to the Republican.

You have got to be kidding.
His rule not mine.
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S019
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« Reply #29 on: October 08, 2021, 11:35:06 PM »

Yeah this one is over, I changed my username recently, but the message remains the same, Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters for Republicans, including one who has veered as far to the right as Glenn Youngkin are not going to win a race like this, which has been greatly nationalized, to the benefit of T-Mac, of course. My prior is Democrats need to win by at least 5 or 6 to feel good about themselves, a narrow win is a sign of a 2014 style wave building, a loss would be a sign of a disastrous wave building where the Democrats could lose 40-45 seats come 2022.
.

It's not over it's well within margin of error

Yes and? In 2017, the polling error favored VA Democrats.

Yes, and in 2018 and 2020 it didn’t (generally accurate/slightly underestimated Republicans). It’s foolish to act like polling is guaranteed to underestimate Democrats when there’s no evidence of such a consistent pattern (one election is not a pattern).

Pretty sure that 2020 polling was more or less spot on in Virginia (slightly overestimated Ds), while it slightly underestimated Ds in 2018. This is not WI or MI, where there's a consistent pattern of massive D polling biases, surely not to the extent that we'd need for a Youngkin win.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #30 on: October 08, 2021, 11:50:00 PM »

Pretty sure that 2020 polling was more or less spot on in Virginia (slightly overestimated Ds), while it slightly underestimated Ds in 2018. This is not WI or MI, where there's a consistent pattern of massive D polling biases, surely not to the extent that we'd need for a Youngkin win.

It actually didn’t underestimate Ds in 2018 (at least not according to the Atlas polling database, Wikipedia, and RCP). Either way, you clearly implied that the race being "within the margin of error" (not a fan of this characterization) or within 4-5 points didn’t matter because polling underestimated Democrats in 2017, the first VA election under Trump (with undecideds less likely to break Republican than under Obama and turnout being more difficult to model). 

I agree with you that polling tends to be more accurate in VA than in the Midwest and other parts of the country, but then why dismiss the multiple polls showing the race within 5 points by referring to the 2017 "polling error"?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #31 on: October 09, 2021, 12:35:06 AM »

Just to note, D's don't need VA to win the EC college it doesn't have a Senate race 2022/ neither does GA in 2024, but AZ 11 can supplement VA 13, votes and it becomes the 277 Blue Wall with WI not the 304 blue wall and Tim Kaine will have a Tough race in 2024/ it won't be easy

AZ, GA, WI and VA will get D's over 270 not only VA
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #32 on: October 09, 2021, 12:38:39 AM »

Pretty sure that 2020 polling was more or less spot on in Virginia (slightly overestimated Ds), while it slightly underestimated Ds in 2018. This is not WI or MI, where there's a consistent pattern of massive D polling biases, surely not to the extent that we'd need for a Youngkin win.

It actually didn’t underestimate Ds in 2018 (at least not according to the Atlas polling database, Wikipedia, and RCP). Either way, you clearly implied that the race being "within the margin of error" (not a fan of this characterization) or within 4-5 points didn’t matter because polling underestimated Democrats in 2017, the first VA election under Trump (with undecideds less likely to break Republican than under Obama and turnout being more difficult to model). 

I agree with you that polling tends to be more accurate in VA than in the Midwest and other parts of the country, but then why dismiss the multiple polls showing the race within 5 points by referring to the 2017 "polling error"?

Mark Warner underperformed by a significant amount in the 2020 election. Gade did comparable to Harrison in South Carolina.
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Horus
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« Reply #33 on: October 09, 2021, 04:58:03 AM »

Pure tossup.
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Person Man
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« Reply #34 on: October 09, 2021, 09:20:24 AM »

My prediction is McAuliffe +2. There is probably about a 25% chance Youngkin wins.
No. There is a 100% chance Youngkin wins.

Both of you are trolling, though I think SnowLabrador's is unintentional, whereas Leroy McPherson fan's is purposeful and he realizes he's trolling.

I know my current prediction will raise an eyebrow or two, but it's Virginia, which broke for Biden by much more than 4 points...I'm currently going with McAuliffe+7.2, though this may change as the election draws nearer.
I’m not trolling. Just exaggerating a bit.

So you genuinely believe Youngkin is favoured?
Yes. I agree with the Saagar Enjeti rule to always add at least 6% to the Republican.

You have got to be kidding.
His rule not mine.

What else do you follow of him without question?
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #35 on: October 09, 2021, 11:53:03 AM »

My prediction is McAuliffe +2. There is probably about a 25% chance Youngkin wins.
No. There is a 100% chance Youngkin wins.

Both of you are trolling, though I think SnowLabrador's is unintentional, whereas Leroy McPherson fan's is purposeful and he realizes he's trolling.

I know my current prediction will raise an eyebrow or two, but it's Virginia, which broke for Biden by much more than 4 points...I'm currently going with McAuliffe+7.2, though this may change as the election draws nearer.
I’m not trolling. Just exaggerating a bit.

So you genuinely believe Youngkin is favoured?
Yes. I agree with the Saagar Enjeti rule to always add at least 6% to the Republican.

LOL if you did this in 2018 you would have gotten just about every race wrong. (As indeed Trafalgar did applying their own, similar "unskewing" techniques.) Even in 2020, the polling error was not 6 points off. Biden led in polls of PA by an average of about 4, for instance, and ended up winning it by 1. The error was literally half of this ridiculous "rule" that only has ever come close to being true when Trump is on the ballot.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #36 on: October 09, 2021, 12:03:01 PM »

So McAuliffe is gonna win by 4, what most of us have been predicting for a year. Cool.
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