VA-Emerson: T-Mac +1
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December 04, 2021, 12:05:03 PM

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  2021 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  VA-Emerson: T-Mac +1
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Author Topic: VA-Emerson: T-Mac +1  (Read 1180 times)
Skye
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« on: October 06, 2021, 08:38:08 AM »

McAuliffe (D) 49
Youngkin (R) 48

Biden approval 45/48

Quote
The Virginia Emerson College/Nexstar Media Group poll was conducted October 1-3, 2021. The sample consisted of Virginia likely voters, n=620, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a pollís margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2021 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected via a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, a landline sample using IVR, and an online panel provided by Amazon MTurk.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/virginia-2021-dead-heat-in-governor-and-attorney-general-race
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2021, 09:35:07 AM »

McAuliffe also leads among Black voters (72% to 25%), while Youngkin leads among White voters (53% to 45%) and Hispanic voters (55% to 45%).


Not one of these looks accurate.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2021, 09:44:59 AM »

McAuliffe also leads among Black voters (72% to 25%), while Youngkin leads among White voters (53% to 45%) and Hispanic voters (55% to 45%).


Not one of these looks accurate.

Rule #1 of polling is don't focus on the cross-tabs.

This is the poll that got the 2020 PV accurate- last 2 polls were Biden +5 and Biden +4 at a time when others were showing a blowout.  This needs to be taken seriously. 
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Skye
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2021, 09:47:43 AM »

McAuliffe also leads among Black voters (72% to 25%), while Youngkin leads among White voters (53% to 45%) and Hispanic voters (55% to 45%).


Not one of these looks accurate.

Considering the sample size of Black voters is like 120 and Hispanic ones is 52, you really shouldn't draw conclusions of them.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2021, 09:49:10 AM »

Republicans will get excited about a poll that still shows them trailing, lose on election night and then claim fraud on the day after. Oh and then the death threats to the election officials will roll in after. This is so predictable.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2021, 09:52:08 AM »

> M e m e r s o n strikes again...
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2021, 09:58:12 AM »

Tossup.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2021, 10:12:09 AM »

Memerson
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2021, 10:12:50 AM »


I do think T-Mac still wins narrowly.  This could be debate gaffe related.  In recent times, this makes the candidate underpoll fundamentals in the short term, but baseline partisanship eventually takes over.  See IA-SEN and 1st presidential debate in 2020.
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jimmie
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2021, 11:42:27 AM »

This will be a nail biter.

I have no idea how VA will be like in 2024 though.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2021, 11:48:30 AM »

This is not a Toss-Up, polls are not suddenly right when we like the results. Likely D, will be closer than it should be, but unless we're headed for a complete wipeout of the Democratic Party, McAuliffe will win.
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S019
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2021, 12:50:06 PM »

Memerson
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2021, 04:10:54 PM »

No one knows what turnout will be which means topline numbers, while not worthless, are not really hugely useful.

The problem is these public polls, unlike focus groups or some of the campaign tracking polls, are not designed to actually track target demographics or areas which means the information polling can tell us , ie. what women with degrees are doing, what is going on in Fairfax among Biden voters, etc is worthless given sample issues.

The polls which are most accurate are those which honestly come out with 2 to 3 toplines for different turnout models. And those models do seem to show three things

A. A tied race to one point youngkin lead
B. 3 Point or so Tmac lead
C. 6+ Tmac lead

Neither campaign is going to act as if C is right because they have no reason to. It serves no one's interests. For Youngkin there is little they can do because C likely means the race was never winnable. For TMAC they win anyway so they need to figure out how to win A.

My impression is everyone would be surprised but not shocked if Youngkin wins by 1-2%. They would not be shocked if he loses by 6 or 7. They are both probably running models showing it around 2-3 points.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2021, 07:29:10 PM »

I really don't want to come across as a hack, because I have very often accepted polls I don't like, but I really can't fathom the race being this close, even if McAuliffe does under-perform.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2021, 09:28:12 PM »

This is not a Toss-Up, polls are not suddenly right when we like the results. Likely D, will be closer than it should be, but unless we're headed for a complete wipeout of the Democratic Party, McAuliffe will win.

I feel like this is way too hyperbolic. Republicans easily swept the non-federal races in VA and NJ in 2009 and it didnít exactly translate into them winning federal races in deep blue and in many cases even light blue states in November 2010. Republicans barely winning VA wouldnít exactly foreshadow a 2010-style wipeout in the House either (there are not nearly as many D-held Trump districts for them to pick off as there were D-held McCain seats in 2010).

People would do well to remember that this is still a gubernatorial election and not a national race, so Youngkin running against the literal embodiment of a shady career politician/out-of-touch D state party that has moved way to the left while largely avoiding national issues himself is obviously going to be a more effective playbook at the local level.

Thereís a real danger of overinterpreting these results regardless of which party emerges victorious or what the final margin is, and Iíd caution against predicting a Republican tsunami even if Republicans narrowly flip the state (or lose only narrowly) or vice versa. One thing that should be pretty clear, however, is that Youngkin is hardly the 'awful' candidate Demoratic partisans have made him out to be (this was always a silly take, obviously).
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jimmie
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« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2021, 11:15:09 PM »

I am pessimistic and really am unsure who will win.

If youngkin won solidly and HoD was 60 to 40 R I wouldnt be shocked. Nor would I be shocked if Tmac won by 5 to 7
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2021, 11:24:18 PM »

Once again, people seem to be mocking Emerson, although their polls tend to be reasonably accurate. But at any rate, I still think McAuliffe has the advantage, but it will almost certainly be a single-digit margin at this point.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2021, 11:41:27 PM »

This is gonna depend on the VBM and how much of a lead TMac gets, but he is still favored
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2021, 06:39:48 AM »

So, the connection to Trump angle must not be working as easily (it should be) as it did in California? Is that accurate to say?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2021, 06:42:22 AM »

So, the connection to Trump angle must not be working as easily (it should be) as it did in California? Is that accurate to say?

Depends. We've gotten just as many T-Mac 5-7 pt leads as "closer" 1-3 pt leads
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2021, 07:29:06 AM »
« Edited: October 07, 2021, 07:46:05 AM by Skill and Chance »

So, the connection to Trump angle must not be working as easily (it should be) as it did in California? Is that accurate to say?

A big part of the CA story is that polling was wrong in the Dem's favor.  That can't be assumed here.  If CA had actually been No +15ish, the takeaways would have been very different.  That about matches up with a McAuliffe +1 result in terms of national environment interestingly.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2021, 08:13:02 AM »

So, the connection to Trump angle must not be working as easily (it should be) as it did in California? Is that accurate to say?

A big part of the CA story is that polling was wrong in the Dem's favor.  That can't be assumed here.  If CA had actually been No +15ish, the takeaways would have been very different.  That about matches up with a McAuliffe +1 result in terms of national environment interestingly.

I'm interested to see how the polling ends up in VA (and NJ). I would not be surprised if we have another situation where pollsters' LV models were very much to blame.
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The Roc Pile
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2021, 09:15:54 AM »

What's key is TMac's consistently been at 48-49% regardless, Youngkin's margin is the one fluctuating from the mid to upper 40s based on turnout/undecideds. Ds should have this as long as GOTV in NOVA/Tidewater doesnt hit any obstacles.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2021, 09:06:40 PM »

Emerson is better than most of the pollsters that people post in the forum, but usually it's their final polls that end up being accurate relative to other pollsters. This is of course not their final poll so there is no reason to be super worried, yet.
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vitoNova
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« Reply #24 on: October 10, 2021, 09:49:51 AM »

Driving through the South Arlington barrio last week (to pick up my pizza at Pupatella's), I did see a surprisingly large amount of Youngkin lawn signage.

I've always maintained that the Latino embrace of the GOP within the last 1.5 years is because a large proportion are negatively affected by the Coronavirus restrictions and lockdowns.  
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