Chances of a R sweep of tier 1 swing states
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  Chances of a R sweep of tier 1 swing states 		« previous next »
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Poll
Question: What are the chances of Rs sweeping PA,NV, and one or both of Arizona or Georgia?
#1
Nil (less than 1%)		  
#2
Very slim (less than 10%)		  
#3
slim (less than 30%)		  
#4
A long shot, but it’s almost a crap shoot (30-50%)		  
#5
More likely than not (50-70%)		  
#6
I’d gamble on it if I had the money (>70%)		  
#7
It would be an upset if they didn’t (>90%)		  
#8
They are virtually guaranteed to win!		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 51

Author Topic: Chances of a R sweep of tier 1 swing states  (Read 736 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« on: October 10, 2022, 06:54:52 AM »
.
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Harry
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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2022, 07:55:14 AM »
Since there is strong correlation, probably a little under 30%
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2022, 08:52:20 AM »
Chance of all four? I'd say about 15-20
3- 30-35
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Person Man
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« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2022, 09:34:00 AM »
My guess is all 4 - 10%, 3-20% 2- 30-40%.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2022, 10:06:17 AM »
Very unlikely — even in successful/wave years, the victorious party usually loses at least one race which is considered (or was initially considered) competitive (2004 - CO, 2006 - TN, 2008 - GA, 2010 - NV/CO/WV, 2012 - NV/AZ, etc.).

It’s easy to see Republicans sweeping NC/NV/OH/WI, but I don’t think they get all of AZ/GA/PA — in my view, winning a majority of the vote in GA is by far the toughest one of those for the GOP.
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S019
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« Reply #5 on: October 10, 2022, 11:36:51 AM »
This is basically asking how likely are Republicans to win the Senate and I’d say around 25-30% right now.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #6 on: October 10, 2022, 11:38:21 AM »
Quote from: Trumbull County #Populist for Tim Ryan on October 10, 2022, 11:36:51 AM
This is basically asking how likely are Republicans to win the Senate and I’d say around 25-30% right now.
They could win the senate with just two(PA/NV, NV/AZ etc)
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S019
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« Reply #7 on: October 10, 2022, 11:44:02 AM »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 10, 2022, 11:38:21 AM
Quote from: Trumbull County #Populist for Tim Ryan on October 10, 2022, 11:36:51 AM
This is basically asking how likely are Republicans to win the Senate and I’d say around 25-30% right now.
They could win the senate with just two(PA/NV, NV/AZ etc)

I said basically for a reason and if Oz does come back to win, it’s quite possible that Walker or Masters could’ve also won. I’d say it’s still right around there.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2022, 11:44:58 AM »
Quote from: Trumbull County #Populist for Tim Ryan on October 10, 2022, 11:44:02 AM
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 10, 2022, 11:38:21 AM
Quote from: Trumbull County #Populist for Tim Ryan on October 10, 2022, 11:36:51 AM
This is basically asking how likely are Republicans to win the Senate and I’d say around 25-30% right now.
They could win the senate with just two(PA/NV, NV/AZ etc)

I said basically for a reason and if Oz does come back to win, it’s quite possible that Walker or Masters could’ve also won. I’d say it’s still right around there.
Agree on Masters, but I struggle to see Walker winning at this point
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #9 on: October 10, 2022, 01:04:00 PM »
just under 10%.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #10 on: October 10, 2022, 01:35:15 PM »
Less than 30%, but under the impression that the races will not move too independently, above 10%.
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THKL
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2022, 02:08:49 AM »
« Edited: October 11, 2022, 02:58:17 AM by THKL »
I voted for “More likely then not (50-70%)”, because sadly it appears all the momentum is with the GOP in the final stretch due to the Saudis and Putin (both known GOP allies) raising Gas prices, Cry.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2022, 06:02:38 AM »
Very slim. I don't believe this will happen. I currently believe they'll lose 3: PA/AZ/GA.
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