OR 2022 Megathread
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NOVA Green
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« on: October 05, 2021, 07:27:10 PM »

Didn't see a link for this in Gass' pinned list at the top of the board, so figured would go ahead and start one.

Mods please add to the list or merge if there is one out there already which I didn't see.

Looks like we already have one candidate running for election in Oregon's new Congressional District (OR-CD 06).

Quote

Democratic lawmaker Andrea Salinas plans to run for Oregon’s new 6th congressional seat

A Democratic lawmaker who led the Oregon Legislature’s recently completed work to redraw the state’s congressional and legislative districts now appears to be planning a run for Oregon’s new sixth congressional district.

Rep. Andrea Salinas, D-Lake Oswego, served as chair of the House congressional and legislative redistricting committees during the special session that wrapped up last week and according to people contacted by The Oregonian/OregonLive, Salinas has been making calls this week to inform people she plans to run for the sixth congressional district.

Salinas, a second-term lawmaker who previously worked as a lobbyist for clients including immigrant rights group Causa and the state’s largest public employee unions, did not immediately respond to a request for comment Tuesday.

Oregon’s newly added 6th District is the state’ s only congressional seat without an incumbent. Salinas lives just outside the district, less than a mile east in the 5th District, represented by Democratic U.S. Rep. Kurt Schrader. Members of Congress are not required to live in the districts they represent, but not doing so could be viewed as a political liability.

.....




https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/10/democratic-lawmaker-andrea-salinas-plans-to-run-for-oregons-new-6th-congressional-seat.html



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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2021, 07:43:06 PM »

The article also mentioned that former Multnomah County Commissioner Loretta Smith is running too, despite living in Portland. Salinas is far more likely to be nominated though.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2021, 08:11:02 PM »

The article also mentioned that former Multnomah County Commissioner Loretta Smith is running too, despite living in Portland. Salinas is far more likely to be nominated though.

Thx for mentioning that!

Didn't want to overquote, especially since it is a subscriber exclusive and I've been burned a couple times in the past by mods for overquoting articles.

For those who are not subscribers, The Oregonian (Oregonlive) generally releases exclusive articles towards broader release within a day or two after for those of you who can't afford to subscribe and just want to look up an occasional article from the news outfit from behind the Paywall.

Agreed with your general gist that Salinas probably has an edge over Smith at this point, but it's still way too early, let alone potentially a few more contenders likely to jump into the ring over the next couple months.

Really curious about who the PUBs will end up having on their list, since basically this district includes some of the more heavily "Evangelical Christian" type voters on the PUB side when it comes to Republican Primaries, where this faction of the PUB Party tends to perform much better in intra-party elections.

Regardless, definitely looking like the DEM bench will grow dramatically for future elections with a new CD in play and shifts in existing State/House LDs.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2021, 09:30:56 PM »

Huh. I had been thinking the two most likely winners in OR-06 were Paul Evans and Teresa Alonso Leon--which I suppose could still happen. Guess we'll see.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2022, 09:26:30 PM »

Huh. I had been thinking the two most likely winners in OR-06 were Paul Evans and Teresa Alonso Leon--which I suppose could still happen. Guess we'll see.

OR CD-06 DEM PRIMARY

Teresa Alonso Leon announces her candidacy.

"

Oregon Rep. Teresa Alonso Leon is running for the state’s new sixth congressional district in what is shaping up to be a competitive Democratic primary.

Alonso Leon, who is from Woodburn, formally announced her plan to run for the seat on Thursday morning. She is currently serving her third term in the state House and was previously a Woodburn city councilor. Oregon’s new sixth congressional district, drawn by state lawmakers in 2021, covers agricultural areas including Yamhill County and the bulk of the state’s Latino population in and around Woodburn and Salem.

....

"



https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/01/democratic-lawmaker-teresa-alonso-leon-will-run-for-oregons-new-6th-congressional-seat.html
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JM1295
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« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2022, 09:30:28 PM »

Are there any policy differences between Salinas and Alonso Leon? Is one more to the center and the other more progressive?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2022, 06:25:36 PM »

Are there any policy differences between Salinas and Alonso Leon? Is one more to the center and the other more progressive?

Loretta Smith is also running as well.... there are several other not very well known individuals that have announced without prior political experience.

Honestly at this point I'm not sure there are any dramatic political contrasts that have yet formed in terms of how these candidates are branding themselves with policy positions.

Here is Teresa Alonso Leon and Andrea Salinas' ballotpedia info

https://ballotpedia.org/Teresa_Alonso_Leon

https://ballotpedia.org/Andrea_Salinas

Loretta Smith has not previously served in the Oregon State Legislature but has served on the Multnomah County Board of Commissioners last in 2018.

https://ballotpedia.org/Loretta_Smith

I suspect this race might come down to more of a regional split between the suburban PDX part of the district vs the Salem area....
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2022, 08:15:56 PM »

Already have an idea whom I will be voting for in the OR CD-05 DEM PRIM now that I got redistricted, but some interesting grassroots party stuff afoot (Granted OR has a relatively weak party system compared to many States).

Quote
In a big break with tradition, Democratic Party officials in four Oregon counties have endorsed the Democratic challenger to incumbent Democrat Kurt Schrader in the primary battle in Oregon’s newly redrawn 5th Congressional District.

At least two-thirds of party officials in each county voted to endorse Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who is challenging the seven-term incumbent from the left.

The list of counties whose Democratic Party loyalists sided overwhelmingly with McLeod-Skinner includes Schrader’s home of Clackamas. Its party volunteers known as precinct committee people voted Thursday night to endorse McLeod-Skinner, who lives in the Deschutes County community of Terrebonne, over the Canby Democrat who’s represented parts of Clackamas County in either Congress or the Legislature since 1997.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/03/in-break-democrats-in-4-counties-endorse-challenger-to-kurt-schrader-for-congress.html

Here are a few other recent news articles.

https://www.thecentersquare.com/oregon/incumbent-kurt-schrader-and-jamie-mcleod-skinner-running-in-democratic-primary-for-oregon-s-5th/article_9de025de-a936-11ec-ad70-876ebba77272.html

https://nwlaborpress.org/2022/03/several-unions-now-favor-mcleod-skinner-in-challenge-to-kurt-schrader/

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/22/progressives-kurt-schrader-congress-oregon-primary-00019083

Honestly wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here with the incumbent DEM going down in the Primary.

Got my first campaign flier in the mail just the other day basically a "human interest biography" showcasing his wife, vet background, and "organic farming experience".

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: April 03, 2022, 12:40:58 AM »

Thought this was the OR 2022 Megathread?

Mods feel free to merge the OR CD-06 in the mix...

Meanwhile, currently me and my wife now have three different Schrader (CD-05) campaign mailers in my mailbox so basically over (1) week on average, with the last one just on Thursday or Friday.

Still he lost our vote when he voted against BBB in the House, so no sympathy for him for both our sides.

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LDP Everywhere
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« Reply #9 on: May 14, 2022, 07:02:18 AM »

Who wins the GOP Senate Primary?
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #10 on: May 14, 2022, 12:44:14 PM »

Jo Rae Perkins.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2022, 10:43:24 PM »

So no idea who wins OR-CD-05 DEM PRIM...

We have so many glossy fliers in the mail from Schrader, as well as some pretty cool ones from McLeod-Skinner.

Air Wars aren't really much a factor down here since we were converted from OR-CD-04 to OR-CD-05, so only DEM PRIM CD ads are for CD-04.

I have collected every single one and saved them joking to my spouse that I should save them for posterity as potential collectable items.

Still Schrader's district has been significantly rearranged since OR got another CD, and there are many of us who remember his betrayals against the Biden BIF and BBB, while totally in the pockets of Big Pharma, etc....

Sorry Dude.... humble Vet from Clackamas County schtick doesn't play....

We'll see if he is able to convince enough folx from PDX 'Burbs combined with maybe Ancestral Rural DINOs in Linn County...

Deschutes County is naturally McLeod-Skinner's backyard and a decent % of DEM vote share in the new CD...

Not sure how to rate the race, but definitely could be a sleeper primary race of an incumbent DEM REP.... Huh
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« Reply #12 on: May 17, 2022, 10:59:49 AM »

What party wins the open seat in OR-6?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2022, 11:06:19 AM »

What's up with the poll in OR Gov race we haven't seen anything yet, how is Betsy Johnson doing
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« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2022, 11:18:33 AM »

Hoping Salinas and McLeod-Skinner can pull it off.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2022, 10:18:20 PM »

OR-DEM SEN:

Ron Wyden: 152k (90%)

168k TVs reporting

OR-PUB SEN:

Harbick: 29.5k (32%)
Perkins: 27k (30%)
Palmer: 13k (14%)

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #16 on: August 25, 2022, 10:09:06 PM »

So House PUB Minority Leader McCarthy just showed up in Portland Oregon yesterday in pursuit of a House Republican Majority, where both the addition of a new CD for OR, and what might be considered "DEM Over-reach" to establish a 5:1 ratio, in what many political analysists were starting to consider a wave year, where theoretically OR might have a 3:3 DEM-PUB US-REP Delegation.

Oregonian Exclusive, so keeping quotes to a minimum..

Quote
U.S. House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy blamed Democratic policies for rising crime in cities including Portland during a stop in Oregon Wednesday to stump for congressional Republican candidates.

McCarthy spoke at a roundtable alongside Republican candidates running in Oregon’s 4th, 5th and 6th Congressional Districts as well as Oregon’s lone Republican in Congress, U.S. House Rep. Cliff Bentz. Mayors, city councilors and police association members from nearly a dozen small Oregon cities also took part.

The Republican promotional event was billed as a conversation about how liberal policies have led to rising crime rates in Portland and elsewhere, but notably did not include any elected representatives or candidates from Portland.


Quote
McCarthy’s unusual stop in Oregon comes as Republicans are poised to have their best shot in years to pick up congressional seats in Oregon thanks to redistricting, the addition of a congressional district, a primary upset and the retirement of longtime U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio.

The most competitive Oregon congressional race is expected to be in the 5th District where Democrat Jamie McLeod Skinner, who ousted incumbent U.S. Rep. Kurt Schrader in the primary, is facing Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the former mayor of Happy Valley and the candidate who organized Wednesday’s event. Influential politics outlet Cook Political Report has rated the race a “Democratic toss-up.”

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/08/us-house-republican-leader-kevin-mccarthy-blasts-democratic-policies-in-portland-while-stumping-for-congressional-candidates-in-oregon.html

Over and out...

NOVA GREEN
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« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2022, 12:09:49 AM »

So House PUB Minority Leader McCarthy just showed up in Portland Oregon yesterday in pursuit of a House Republican Majority, where both the addition of a new CD for OR, and what might be considered "DEM Over-reach" to establish a 5:1 ratio, in what many political analysists were starting to consider a wave year, where theoretically OR might have a 3:3 DEM-PUB US-REP Delegation.

Oregonian Exclusive, so keeping quotes to a minimum..

Quote
U.S. House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy blamed Democratic policies for rising crime in cities including Portland during a stop in Oregon Wednesday to stump for congressional Republican candidates.

McCarthy spoke at a roundtable alongside Republican candidates running in Oregon’s 4th, 5th and 6th Congressional Districts as well as Oregon’s lone Republican in Congress, U.S. House Rep. Cliff Bentz. Mayors, city councilors and police association members from nearly a dozen small Oregon cities also took part.

The Republican promotional event was billed as a conversation about how liberal policies have led to rising crime rates in Portland and elsewhere, but notably did not include any elected representatives or candidates from Portland.


Quote
McCarthy’s unusual stop in Oregon comes as Republicans are poised to have their best shot in years to pick up congressional seats in Oregon thanks to redistricting, the addition of a congressional district, a primary upset and the retirement of longtime U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio.

The most competitive Oregon congressional race is expected to be in the 5th District where Democrat Jamie McLeod Skinner, who ousted incumbent U.S. Rep. Kurt Schrader in the primary, is facing Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the former mayor of Happy Valley and the candidate who organized Wednesday’s event. Influential politics outlet Cook Political Report has rated the race a “Democratic toss-up.”

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/08/us-house-republican-leader-kevin-mccarthy-blasts-democratic-policies-in-portland-while-stumping-for-congressional-candidates-in-oregon.html

Over and out...

NOVA GREEN

Good insights as always. I'm skeptical that OR-05 would end up flipping at this point. A Biden +9 district that's trending leftward is a pretty tough haul in this environment and JMS is keeping a financial lead. The only thing I could see tipping the scales is an unusual amount of meddling by Schrader, which I hesitate to rule out entirely...
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« Reply #18 on: August 26, 2022, 12:18:03 AM »

From AAD



I've also heard there have been some bad D internals for OR-6.

Per Politico, a Democratic internal of OR-6 has the race tied (while Republicans have Erickson+7). That's amazingly bad (the Democratic number here is, like, VA/NJ-tier); the idea that that might be true even as Fetterman or Kelly remain competitive at all (much less are winning their races) requires special explanation.
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« Reply #19 on: August 26, 2022, 12:34:04 PM »

The only thing I could see tipping the scales is an unusual amount of meddling by Schrader, which I hesitate to rule out entirely...

He is a weapons-grade a******
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« Reply #20 on: August 26, 2022, 02:27:21 PM »

From AAD



I've also heard there have been some bad D internals for OR-6.

Per Politico, a Democratic internal of OR-6 has the race tied (while Republicans have Erickson+7). That's amazingly bad (the Democratic number here is, like, VA/NJ-tier); the idea that that might be true even as Fetterman or Kelly remain competitive at all (much less are winning their races) requires special explanation.


I think this has more to do with the frustration of the Oregon Democratic Party than anything going on Nationally with the Dems.

I don't think the GOP out performing in Oregon this year requires a wave given it would be very much to state and local concerns
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #21 on: August 26, 2022, 08:45:41 PM »

Looks like Oregon is getting some special love from the OR-Congressional 2022 Slush Fund:

Quote
A national Democratic campaign committee has reserved $3.8 million worth of broadcast and cable TV ads in the Portland and Eugene markets to promote its candidates for the state’s three most competitive seats in Congress.

The $3.5 million buy in Portland was the largest announced Friday for 22 markets where the committee plans to run independent ads on behalf of Democratic candidates for the U.S. House. The committee also reserved $360,000 worth of advertising time in the Eugene area, the population center of the 4th District, where Democratic Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle, is running against Republican Alek Skarlatos, best known for his heroics confronting an armed gunman on a French train.

Quote
The Republicans’ Congressional Leadership Fund announced back in April that it had reserved $3.3 million worth of advertising time on Portland-area TV stations and streaming platforms.

Portland-area ads will target two races: Andrea Salinas, a Democrat in the Oregon House who led efforts to draw Oregon’s new 6th Congressional District, is her party’s nominee for that seat, running against Republican Mike Erickson, a Lake Oswego Republican who decisively won his party’s nomination in May. And, in a race widely expected to be the most competitive for an Oregon seat in Congress this year, Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer, a small businesswoman and former Happy Valley mayor, is running against Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, an emergency response coordinator who registered a nationally noticed defeat of seven-term incumbent Kurt Schrader in the May primary.


https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/08/portland-area-draws-outsized-ad-buy-from-national-campaign-to-hold-onto-democratic-seats-in-congress.html
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #22 on: October 10, 2022, 11:01:44 PM »

Meanwhile in OR-CD-06 "Drunk Driver" PUB REP is now attempting to sue his DEM opponent for false campaign ads regarding possession of Oxy during a traffic stop by the coppers back in Hood River some time back...

Quote
Republican congressional candidate Mike Erickson followed through on his threat to sue Democratic opponent Andrea Salinas over a negative campaign ad and is demanding $800,000 from her campaign.

Erickson’s campaign committee filed a complaint Wednesday afternoon in Clackamas County Circuit Court against both Salinas’ campaign and Salinas as an individual over a 30-second television ad that says he “was charged with felony drug possession of illegal oxycodone.” The two are vying to represent Oregon’s new 6th District in Congress. The election is Nov. 8.

The commercial stems from Erickson’s 2016 arrest for driving under the influence in Hood River. While he was being booked at Northern Oregon Regional Correctional Facilities, police found a 5-milligram oxycodone pill, which he said belonged to his wife, in his wallet.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/10/republican-mike-erickson-oregon-candidate-for-congress-files-lawsuit-over-democratic-opponent-andrea-salinas-negative-campaign-ad.html

Here is a link to the original article from another news outlet from about two weeks back (Apologies if I accidentally posted it elsewhere, but had some dayz on the Coast for my B-Day vacation, so certain memories are a bit hazy regarding posting versus thinking of posting breaking news)...

Quote
In ads and political mailers, Republican congressional hopeful Mike Erickson boasts of his support for police and pledges to vote against any bills that are “soft on crime.”

He claims that his Democratic opponent in Oregon’s new 6th Congressional District, state Rep. Andrea Salinas, wants to make it harder for police to do their jobs and easier to get away with theft, dangerous driving and drug use.

Left unmentioned: Erickson’s 2016 arrest and guilty plea for driving under the influence, and accusations for possessing oxycodone that wasn’t prescribed to him. He pleaded guilty to the DUI which was dismissed by going through a one-year diversion program.

Quote
In a statement to the Capital Chronicle, Erickson, 59, said he “made a mistake” in driving under the influence.

He also commented on the oxycodone: “The judge dropped charges for possessing one oxycodone pill after we demonstrated it was my wife’s prescription.”

“I have never used drugs, oxycodone, or even marijuana and have been extremely careful since,” he said. “The negative ads against me, run by Andrea Salinas, are full of lies and misleading images. She will say and do anything to get elected and distract from her record.”

This is Erickson’s third run for Congress, after losing to incumbent Democrat Darlene Hooley in 2006 and U.S. Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Oregon, in 2008. His 2008 campaign imploded following reports about Erickson, who campaigned on family values, driving a girlfriend to an abortion clinic and giving her $300 to pay for the procedure.


https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2022/09/27/tough-on-crime-oregon-congressional-candidate-mike-erickson-had-2016-dui-drug-charges/

Sometimes candidate quality matters, but this guy appears to not be as squeaky clean on Law and order as he represents...

Meanwhile, Atlas might want to take a look at the campaign ad in question, which Mr. Erickson is suing over...

Game, set and match in OR-CD-06???


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