Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[H. Ross Peron]

I'd like more feedback from the Brazilians here but my impression of Rio is that, historically, it was a "red" city and that this persisted until rather recently. The first danger sign could be seen when Dilma performed miserably in the 1st round in 2014 due to Marina Silva's strong performance, which was driven in large part by Pentecostals supporting here.

Are the poor in Rio unusually Pentecostal? In my view, that could explain Rio's extreme shifts in a parsimonious manner but, of course, it does not explain everything because Pentecostals in Bahia or Pernambuco still vote for PT candidates at reasonably high rates.

I've wondered about this as well. Is Rio far more of an Evangelical city than its rival Sao Paulo? I think greater support for the Right makes sense in Rio compared to the Northeast due to there being far more nouveau riche/lower middle class evangelicals and possibly the greater relative salience of issues such as crime vs. material economic conditions. Additionally, certain evangelical based self-help/prosperity theology/Norman Vincent Peale style "positive thinking" movements (see this excellent article in Unherd https://unherd.com/2022/09/the-self-help-guru-who-conquered-brazil/) are almost certainly much more popular in a place like Rio. Of course, localized demographic voting patterns/political subcultures emerge all the time, this isn't an exact comparison but just compare the voting patterns of Italian Americans in the New York City metropolitan area to Boston...

[H. Ross Peron]

I also wanted to ask what is the reason why the southernmost part of Rio Grande do Sul shifted to the left so strongly this time? essentially all those municipalities that are close or border Uruguay...

How are those areas different from the rest of the state? are they poorer?

That appears to be the case: https://twitter.com/Libnex2/status/1577053265443057664

We shouldn't forget Lula won Rio Grande de Sul in both 1989 and 1994, when he lost nationally in those elections. This election seems to feature a slight weakening of the fairly strong regional polarization of the past 20 or so years.

[Pivaru]

Unsurprisingly, PDT has just announced they have unanimously decided to back Lula. Ciro said earlier that he'd follow the party, so he should be supporting Lula as well.

On other news, PT was trying to get Rodrigo Garcia, the defeated governor of São Paulo to endorse Haddad in the states gubernatorial race. Apparently, their plan was for Garcia to help Haddad, while Edegar Pretto, the Worker's Party candidate in Rio Grande do Sul would help Eduardo Leite, who's from the same party as Garcia. There were even some reports about Lula considering to endorse Leite and staying neutral on Pernambuco gubernatorial race (Arraes vs Lyra, the later also being from Garcia and Leite's party, PSDB).

That said, it doesn't seem like this will pan out, the president of the Rio Grande do Sul PSDB has already endorsed Bolsonaro, Leite declared neutrality and Garcia seems to be planning to endorse Tarcísio instead of Haddad. It's still not clear if Garcia will take a stance on the presidential race, Bolsonaro said they'd discuss this today.

[Umengus]

https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1577006655111254016

Seems desperate and could backfire if it runs into legal challenges if my Brazilian friend is to be believed.

lol. buying votes with welfare is the socialist program, so socialists are unhappy when conservative do it.

[Senator Incitatus]

https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1577006655111254016

Seems desperate and could backfire if it runs into legal challenges if my Brazilian friend is to be believed.

A legal challenge would be a disastrous event for Lula, IMO. Giving cash to voters is the perfect opportunity for a Jacksonian "The Chief Justice has made his decision, now let him enforce it" moment. Imagine a populist candidate being able to say "I want to help poor and struggling families but the unelected jurists want to stop me! Empower me to break the system! I will push ahead full steam!"

I said and still say that Trump should have done this in 2020. That alone probably would have won him the necessary votes. We'll see how it works out for Bolsonaro, in the event the courts tee it up for him. Obviously, it's slightly different in that the payments are owed already, and he is just moving them up, which is a bit more transparent than pushing for a new round of payments.

[HidingCommentary]

https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1577006655111254016

Seems desperate and could backfire if it runs into legal challenges if my Brazilian friend is to be believed.

A legal challenge would be a disastrous event for Lula. Giving cash to voters is the perfect opportunity for a Jacksonian "The Chief Justice has made his decision, now let him enforce it" moment. Imagine a populist candidate being able to say "I want to help poor and struggling families but the unelected jurists want to stop me! Empower me to break the system! I will push ahead full steam!"

I said and still say that Trump should have done this in 2020. That alone probably would have won him the necessary votes. We'll see how it works out for Bolsonaro.

The Social Welfare program already exists. People are getting the money one way or another. It's not like the stimulus checks that we got here in the states.

[Pivaru]

Rodrigo Garcia, the governor of São Paulo, has just endorsed Bolsonaro for president and Tarcisio for governor during a livestream with them both, claiming he'll give them "unconditional support". That said, it doesn't seem like Tarcisio wants Garcia to campaign with him, he said the support from PSDB voters is to be expected, but he doesn't really see a point in appearing with the governor since he "was always fighting for change" (keep in mind that Garcia's party has ruled São Paulo for the last 28 years).

Among the four parties that supported Tebet's bid for president, three seem to have already decided their position in regards to the second round. PSDB is letting their members just do whatever they want, Cidadania is going to support Lula and MDB will also let their members just do whatever. Tebet herself is probably going to endorse Lula, but I have no doubt there will be pro-Bolsonaro factions inside the party (just look at the mayor of São Paulo, who's defending that the SP MDB gets behind Tarcisio). Podemos is the fourth party that supported Tebet, but I haven't heard anything about them, they'll probably just stay neutral like they did in 2018.

PSD will keep their neutrality and let their members support whoever they want. There are both Lula supporters, like Otto Alencar, and Bolsonaro supporters, like Ratinho Jr, inside PSD, so this decision isn't unexpected, they're just repeating what they did in the first round. At the end of the day, we all know the party leader, Gilberto Kassab, will just sell his support to whoever ends up getting elected.

There's also PTB, the party that ran the priest guy for president and the least important people I'm talking about here, they'll support Bolsonaro, obviously. They haven't announced it officially yet, but they should get around to doing until the end of the week. That whole party's purpose nowadays seems to be housing the most extreme bolsonaristas out there.

Also, the first second round poll will be released tomorrow, assuming anyone still cares about what they have to say. It will be an Ipec poll.

[HidingCommentary]

Rodrigo Garcia, the governor of São Paulo, has just endorsed Bolsonaro for president and Tarcisio for governor during a livestream with them both, claiming he'll give them "unconditional support". That said, it doesn't seem like Tarcisio wants Garcia to campaign with him, he said the support from PSDB voters is to be expected, but he doesn't really see a point in appearing with the governor since he "was always fighting for change" (keep in mind that Garcia's party has ruled São Paulo for the last 28 years).

Among the four parties that supported Tebet's bid for president, three seem to have already decided their position in regards to the second round. PSDB is letting their members just do whatever they want, Cidadania is going to support Lula and MDB will also let their members just do whatever. Tebet herself is probably going to endorse Lula, but I have no doubt there will be pro-Bolsonaro factions inside the party (just look at the mayor of São Paulo, who's defending that the SP MDB gets behind Tarcisio). Podemos is the fourth party that supported Tebet, but I haven't heard anything about them, they'll probably just stay neutral like they did in 2018.

PSD will keep their neutrality and let their members support whoever they want. There are both Lula supporters, like Otto Alencar, and Bolsonaro supporters, like Ratinho Jr, inside PSD, so this decision isn't unexpected, they're just repeating what they did in the first round. At the end of the day, we all know the party leader, Gilberto Kassab, will just sell his support to whoever ends up getting elected.

There's also PTB, the party that ran the priest guy for president and the least important people I'm talking about here, they'll support Bolsonaro, obviously. They haven't announced it officially yet, but they should get around to doing until the end of the week. That whole party's purpose nowadays seems to be housing the most extreme bolsonaristas out there.

Also, the first second round poll will be released tomorrow, assuming anyone still cares about what they have to say. It will be an Ipec poll.

It seems like polling did a good job for Lula's percentage of the vote. I think it'll be a good sign for him if he's polling over 50.

[buritobr]

The pollster made an hypothesis concerning the differences between the polls and the actual results: they think that there were some voters who hate PT but they don't love Bolsonaro, these voters were thinking in voting for Ciro Gomes or Simone Tebet in the 1st round and for Bolsonaro in the runoff, and since the polls in the eve considered the possibility of Lula winning already in the 1st round, they decided to antecipate their vote to Bolsonaro as a tatical vote, in order to avoid a big margin between Lula and Bolsonaro.

[HidingCommentary]

The pollster made an hypothesis concerning the differences between the polls and the actual results: they think that there were some voters who hate PT but they don't love Bolsonaro, these voters were thinking in voting for Ciro Gomes or Simone Tebet in the 1st round and for Bolsonaro in the runoff, and since the polls in the eve considered the possibility of Lula winning already in the 1st round, they decided to antecipate their vote to Bolsonaro as a tatical vote, in order to avoid a big margin between Lula and Bolsonaro.

That would explain why Lula's share was accurate but Bolsonaro's wasn't. From an American's perspective, that feels like its giving voters too much credit though. It seems easier to just chalk it up to shy Bolsonaro voters who'd rather say they were voting for less popular candidates. Of course, most Americans have never voted in an election with multiple rounds so tactical voting almost never comes into play here.

[jaichind]

The pollster made an hypothesis concerning the differences between the polls and the actual results: they think that there were some voters who hate PT but they don't love Bolsonaro, these voters were thinking in voting for Ciro Gomes or Simone Tebet in the 1st round and for Bolsonaro in the runoff, and since the polls in the eve considered the possibility of Lula winning already in the 1st round, they decided to antecipate their vote to Bolsonaro as a tatical vote, in order to avoid a big margin between Lula and Bolsonaro.

I must not understand the logic of these Brazilian voters.  It seems weird for a voter that hates PT and does not like Bolsonaro but will vote for Bolsonaro in the second round and would park their vote with Gomes in the first round.  Such voters I would think would prefer Lula over Bolsonaro in the second round.  Parking it with Tebet would make sense.

One way or another it is clear that the Lula+Gomes vote was well overestimated in pre-election polls relative to results.

[Pivaru]

More second round endorsements:

José Serra, PSDB's candidate for the presidency in 2002 and 2010 has endorsed Lula for the presidency but Tarcísio for governor of São Paulo. Fernando Henrique Cardoso, the president who was in office right before Lula, also endorsed the former president.

It's doubtful many people change their votes solely based on endorsements, but it can help to open center-right voters minds towards the idea of voting for Lula. It also helps Lula to portray himself not only as the PT presidential candidate, but also the leader of a broad democratic front against Bolsonaro.

As for Bolsonaro, he has been endorsed by Ibaneis Rocha, the reelected governor of Distrito Federal, hardly surprising. Bolsonaro will be meeting with people from União Brasil to discuss tomorrow. União Brasil elected two governors and has a few more still running in second rounds. Apparently, his plan is to portray his alliance with the União Brasil people and the governor's from southeastern states as the "real democratic front" or something like that.

Edit: Not making a new post for this, Ricardo Nunes, the mayor of São Paulo and the MDB from the state have decided to back Tarcisio, unsurprising given the news we saw in the last few days. It seems like they'll also endorse Bolsonaro, but they'll wait a few days before announcing it since Tebet officially endorsed Lula today.

Talks have started within União Brasil over what to do in the second round. Luciano Bivar, the party's president, would like to support Lula, but few agree with him and he doesn't really have enough power to enforce the decision over the whole party. Many members have defended the party should stand with Bolsonaro, such as the Mato Grosso governor Mauro Mendes and the governor of Goias, Ronaldo Caiado (in fact, Caiado endorsed Bolsonaro earlier today). Finally, there's the group that wants the party to stay neutral, letting the members individually decide for themselves. The most relevant member in this last group is ACM Neto, who is currently the União candidate in the second round of the Bahia gubernatorial election. Bahia is a state that votes heavily for PT, so associating with Bolsonaro here would be declaring his defeat (which is already very likely even if he tries to ignore Bolsonaro).

[buritobr]

I don't believe in this hypothesis of the pollsters converning the "strategic behavior". I just reported here. I think that these pollsters have problems concerning samples or there are always the voters who decide only on Sunday.

The polls don't make errors in the whole countries. The polls are usually accurate in the North and Northeast and some of them even underrate PT in these regions. The problem concerning these polls is related to the lower middle class in the South and Southeast. The polls underrate the right/far-right in this specific group. The same error exists since 2014.

[Pivaru]

New ipec poll, first poll of the second round:

Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 51%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 43%
Blank/Null - 4%
Undecided - 2%

Valid votes:
Lula (PT) - 55%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 45%

In case anyone is curious to how this compares to the pre-first round polls, looking at the last Ipec poll before the election, Lula fell 1 point in the total votes and 3 in the valid votes. Bolsonaro rose 6 points in the total votes and 3 in the valid votes.

50% of voters said they wouldn't vote for Bolsonaro, 40% said they wouldn't vote for Lula.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm taking Brazilian polls with a grain of salt, like I do American polls, but that 50 or 51% number is always important to note. As long as Lula maintains that he should win, even if Bolsonaro over-performs again. Well...if Bolsonaro allows him to win...

[Niemeyerite]

Brazilian polling os not very good in the 1st round but it's very, very good on 2nd rounds. So I trust this poll. My gut says Lula 54.5%, won't be that close hopefully.

[Epaminondas]

New ipec poll, first poll of the second round:

Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 51%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 43%
Blank/Null - 4%
Undecided - 2%

Valid votes:
Lula (PT) - 55%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 45%

In case anyone is curious to how this compares to the pre-first round polls, looking at the last Ipec poll before the election, Lula fell 1 point in the total votes and 3 in the valid votes. Bolsonaro rose 6 points in the total votes and 3 in the valid votes.

Adjusting for a similar error in real votes would yield Lula winning 50-49.
Scary perspective.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro’s chief of staff Ciro Nogueira told the president’s supporters not to answer to polls in the second round. “After the scandal they committed, all voters of President Bolsonaro have only one answer to pollsters: Not to respond to any of them until the end of the election,” Nogueira said in a tweet.

This will make all second-round election polls useless.

How much should one even trust second-round polling now? 

[Antonio the Sixth]

New ipec poll, first poll of the second round:

Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 51%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 43%
Blank/Null - 4%
Undecided - 2%

Valid votes:
Lula (PT) - 55%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 45%

In case anyone is curious to how this compares to the pre-first round polls, looking at the last Ipec poll before the election, Lula fell 1 point in the total votes and 3 in the valid votes. Bolsonaro rose 6 points in the total votes and 3 in the valid votes.

Adjusting for a similar error in real votes would yield Lula winning 50-49.
Scary perspective.

Given that the first round's error was entirely asymmetrical (Lula was right where the polls expected), the expectation should be no more than half of it in the runoff. And that's if pollsters haven't adjusted their methodology in response to the first round already.

[Pivaru]

New ipec poll, first poll of the second round:

Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 51%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 43%
Blank/Null - 4%
Undecided - 2%

Valid votes:
Lula (PT) - 55%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 45%

In case anyone is curious to how this compares to the pre-first round polls, looking at the last Ipec poll before the election, Lula fell 1 point in the total votes and 3 in the valid votes. Bolsonaro rose 6 points in the total votes and 3 in the valid votes.

50% of voters said they wouldn't vote for Bolsonaro, 40% said they wouldn't vote for Lula.

Some more data from the poll:

Gender
Women:
Lula - 53%
Bolsonaro - 40%

Men:
Lula - 49%
Bolsonaro - 45%

Age
16-24:
Lula - 54%
Bolsonaro - 34%

25-34:
Bolsonaro - 49%
Lula - 46%

35-44:
Lula - 52%
Bolsonaro - 43%

45-59:
Lula - 53%
Bolsonaro - 41%

60+:
Lula - 50%
Bolsonaro - 41%

Income (by minimum wage)
1 MW or less:
Lula - 64%
Bolsonaro - 29%

1-2 MWs:
Lula - 55%
Bolsonaro - 41%

2-5 MWs:
Bolsonaro - 49%
Lula - 44%

5 MWs or more:
Bolsonaro - 65%
Lula - 30%

Region of residence
Northeast:
Lula - 69%
Bolsonaro - 26%

North/Central-West:
Bolsonaro - 53%
Lula - 43%

Southeast:
Lula - 47%
Jair Bolsonaro - 45%

South:
Bolsonaro - 54%
Lula - 37%

[Red Velvet]

PoderData poll regarding vote transfer in the runoff among those who plan to vote:

Simone Tebet voters
92% Lula
8% Bolsonaro

Ciro Gomes voters
54% Bolsonaro
46% Lula

Blank/Nulls
50% Bolsonaro
50% Lula

Abstentions
55% Lula
45% Bolsonaro

[jaichind]

I believe the PoderData topline is 48-44 Lula and 52-48 Lula w/o undecides.

[Mike88]

I believe the PoderData topline is 48-44 Lula and 52-48 Lula w/o undecides.

Yep:
https://twitter.com/eixopolitico/status/1577990274764218368

However, this poll is a bit scratchy. Tebet voters, which include a few PSDB voters, going 90-10% to Lula, while Ciro voters are like 50-50% is a bit odd. Anyway, I'm taking the polls with a huge grain of salt.

[Senator Incitatus]

Looks like both polls significantly tightened from their pre-election second round polling (+15 to +8 and +8 to +4), though Poder's was back on Sep. 20. I still consider Lula favored but I take it we shouldn't be completely shocked if Bolsonaro survives?

[HidingCommentary]

Looks like both polls significantly tightened from their pre-election second round polling (+15 to +8 and +8 to +4), though Poder's was back on Sep. 20. I still consider Lula favored but I take it we shouldn't be completely shocked if Bolsonaro survives?

For context, no second place finisher has even won the second round of a Brazilian presidential election. It would be pretty shocking just from a historic point of view.