Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

New IPESPE poll:

Lula 42% (+1)
Bolsonaro 25% (-3)
Sérgio Moro 11% (+3)
Ciro Gomes 9%
João Doria 2%

The scenario with Leite instead of Doria are exactly the same numbers but only Bolsonaro changing to 24% for some reason.

[Red Velvet]

João Doria has won the PSDB primaries and will be the party candidate in the next year election.

Results:

João Doria 53,99%
Eduardo Leite 44,66%
Arthur Virgílio 1,35%

[buritobr]

Considering that Lula has a safe place in the runoff and Bolsonaro doesn't, the "neither Lula nor Bolsonaro" candidate needs to have votes from the right in order to go to the runoff. Sergio Moro is at a good position.
For João Doria to go to the runoff, he would need to convince Sergio Moro to run for the senate and not for president.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro government approval hits all time low, first time lower than 20%!!!

Atlas poll (23/11 - 26/11) asked Brazilians about their opinion about the Bolsonaro government. Results are:

Bad or Awful - 60% (-1)
Regular - 20% (+6)
Good or Great - 19% (-5)
Doesn’t yet know - 1%

Evolution alongside all of Bolsonaro mandate:



Media buzz and between some entrepreneurship groups is that they could maybe jump ship and that Moro/PSDB would become their candidate. There’s the (slight) possibility that Bolsonaro could miss the runoff if he keeps this freefall. But even if he melts, a 3rd option needs to concentrate a good amount of votes and I’m not really sure Moro (golden boy of the establishment media) will actually deliver in the campaign like lots of powerful people are hoping. He’s just an empty “picture” who still need to prove his political skills, only representing nothing more than the anti-PT angst.

[PSOL]

Anti-PT angst is more popular than their policy proposals, so there is a good possibility of Moro being their guy.

Not like it matters much, PT will sweep the elections.

[buritobr]

Details of the Atlas Poll, November 23-26th 2021, about Bolsonaro's administration

Group: approve, disapprove

Gender
Male: 38, 57
Female: 21, 73

Education
Elementary: 38, 56
High School: 27, 68
College: 23, 72

Region
Center-West: 38, 59
Northeast: 21, 75
North: 31, 66
Southeast (excluding São Paulo): 33, 63
South: 31, 61
São Paulo: 31, 63

Age
16-24: 16, 77
25-34: 27, 67
35-44: 37, 58
45-59: 34, 61
60-100: 31, 65

Monthly Income (US$1=R$5.50)
<R$2000: 24, 71
R$2000-R$3000: 35, 60
R$3000-R$5000: 34, 60
R$5000-R$10000: 33, 64
>R$10000: 25, 68

Religion
Catholic: 27, 68
Evangelic: 43, 51
Other: 22, 72
Atheist, Agnostic: 12, 85

Vote 2018
Bolsonaro: 61, 31
Haddad: 1, 98
Blank or nulified: 5, 90
Didn't vote: 13, 78

https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1465298637953675268

[Red Velvet]

Lmao at the gender gap. A -52 net approval with women is so funny. Thank heavens for women always being more rational and “pragmatic” than men, who are extremely emotional driven. Female voters are more center than anything, in the 00s men happened to lean more to PT while women kinda preferred PSDB back then but radicalization of the right shifted this.

But even between Brazilian men Bolsonaro has a -19 net approval, he’s so done. He also melted his favorability in the South region. Center-West being the more favorable region (not by much though) is likely influence of parts of the agro support he still retains.

Regarding income class divide, it’s weird but it also makes totally sense that the poorest and the richest brackets are the ones with his worst numbers. Shows how much he’s hated for both the economic austerity (low approval with the poorest) and the cultural uneducated conservative insanity that shames upper classes (low approval with the richest).

The fact that 43% of evangelicals still somehow approve this government shows how this groups tends to be more identitary than other religious groups, all of which have very low approval ratings for the president (all less than 30%)

And the final thing, we clearly are about to have tons and tons of Bolsonaro 2018 - Lula 2022 voters since 1/3 of the people who voted for this president jumped ship and disapprove him. But the Haddad 2018 - Bolsonaro 2022 voter won’t exist.

[buritobr]

Atlas Poll, November 27-29th 2021

1st round
Lula 42.8%, Jair Bolsonaro 31.5%, Sergio Moro 13.7%, Ciro Gomes 6.1%, João Doria 1.7%

Runoff
Lula 50.5%, Jair Bolsonaro 36%
Lula 46.4%, Sergio Moro 29.2%

You can find the full results, according to gender, age, region, education, income, religion, vote 2018, here. I think even those who don't speak Portuguese could understand the tables and the charts https://atlasintel.org/poll/brazil-national-2021-11-30

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro finally officially joined PL (Liberal Party).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Bolsonaro finally officially joined PL (Liberal Party).

Liberal kkkkkk

[buritobr]

Ipespe Poll in state of São Paulo
December 2021

1st round
Lula 35%, Jair Bolsonaro 24%, Sergio Moro 12%, Ciro Gomes 5%, João Dória 5%
Runoff
Lula 47%, Jair Bolsonaro 33%
Lula 47%, Sergio Moro 34%

Bolsonaro's administration
Good/very good: 22%
Regular: 21%
Bad/very bad: 55%

São Paulo is usually a very conservative state. The left won there only in 2002

1989
1st round: Collor 24.4%, Maluf 23.5%, Covas 22.7%, Lula 17.5%, Afif 4.8%, Ulisses 2.0%
Runoff: Collor 57.9%, Lula 42.1%

1994
1st round: Fernando Henrique Cardoso 55.7%, Lula 27.0%, Enéias 8.9%

1998
1st round: Fernando Henrique Cardoso 59.9%, Lula 28.8%, Ciro Gomes 7.4%

2002
1st round: Lula 46.1%, Serra 28.5%, Garotinho 14.1%, Ciro Gomes 10.6%
Runoff: Lula 55.4%, Serra 44.6%

2006
1st round: Alckmin 54.2%, Lula 36.8%, Heloísa Helena 7.1%, Cristóvam 1.8%
Runoff: Alckmin 52.3%, Lula 47.7%

2010
1st round: Serra 40.7%, Dilma 37.3%, Marina Silva 20.8%, Plinio 1.0%
Runoff: Serra 54.1%, Dilma 45.9%

2014
1st round: Aécio 44.2%, Dilma 25.8%, Marina Silva 25.1%, Luciana 2.4%
Runoff: Aécio 64.3%, Dilma 35.7%

2018
1st round: Bolsonaro 53.0%, Haddad 16.4%, Ciro Gomes 11.4%, Alckmin 9.5%, Amoedo 4.6%
Runoff: Bolsonaro 68.0%, Haddad 32.0%

[Red Velvet]

Sensus poll

Lula (PT) 50,6%
Bolsonaro (PL) 28,7%
Sérgio Moro (PODEMOS) 8,9%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 6,3%
João Doria (PSDB) 2,1%
Simone Tebet (MDB) 1,4%
Henrique Mandetta (UNIÃO) 1,2%

[Boobs]

Would be interesting if Lula won without a runoff. Certainly highly embarrassing for Bolsonaro

[buritobr]

Would be interesting if Lula won without a runoff. Certainly highly embarrassing for Bolsonaro

The probability is low but it is not impossible. Lula can have >50% in the first round if Ciro Gomes doesn't run and if PSOL doesn't have its own candidate.

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll, December 2-5th, 2021

1st round, scenario with all candidates
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 23%, Moro 10%, Ciro 5%, Doria 2%, Pacheco 1%, Avila 1%

Runoff
Lula 55%, Bolsonaro 31%
Lula 53%, Moro 29%

Rating Bolsonaro administration
Positive: 21%
Regular: 26%
Negative: 50%

[Estrella]

Bolsonaro finally officially joined PL (Liberal Party).

Impressive.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro finally officially joined PL (Liberal Party).

Impressive.

Neither of these are left-wing parties. Progressistas (Progressives) are a right-wing party currently part of Bolsonaro’s base.

Basically the words “conservative” or more right-wing terms were too strongly associated with the military regime after the end of the dictatorship which is why parties wouldn’t adopt names that were too unpopular. That’s why almost all Brazilian party names sound very left-wing or at least in the center but you would be doing a mistake to assume their position by their names.

[Red Velvet]

CNI poll asked Brazilians about their opinion regarding the country economy currently:

1% Ótima (Great)
7% Boa (Good)
21% Regular (Regular/Normal)
23% Ruim (Bad)
47% Péssima (Awful)

That’s 70% with a Negative perception and only 8% with a Positive perception.

Regarding opinion about inflation:

73% say prices are rising
15% say prices are staying the same
8% say prices are reducing
3% Don’t Know

75% of Brazilians say they were affected or very affected by the rise of the prices. 10% on the other hand say they weren’t affected or that they were affected only a little bit by inflation.

[Mike88]

Basically the words “conservative” or more right-wing terms were too strongly associated with the military regime after the end of the dictatorship which is why parties wouldn’t adopt names that were too unpopular. That’s why almost all Brazilian party names sound very left-wing or at least in the center but you would be doing a mistake to assume their position by their names.

Like Father, Like Son

[buritobr]

There is an internal conflict inside PSOL regarding to having an own candidate or endorsing Lula already in the first round. The pro-Lula wing was stronger few months ago, but since the suggestion of a Lula/Alckmin ticket appeared, the wing supporting the own candidate became stronger.
If PSOL has its own candidate, probably this candidate will have between 3 and 5%, and it would be very hard for Lula to win already in the first round.

[Babeuf]

There is an internal conflict inside PSOL regarding to having an own candidate or endorsing Lula already in the first round. The pro-Lula wing was stronger few months ago, but since the suggestion of a Lula/Alckmin ticket appeared, the wing supporting the own candidate became stronger.
If PSOL has its own candidate, probably this candidate will have between 3 and 5%, and it would be very hard for Lula to win already in the first round.

Surely after the Dilma impeachment and Temer presidency, Lula wouldn't actually pick a non-PT member to be VP?? Seems like it would be a massive mistake unless they absolutely need it to win, which it doesn't look like they do.

[Red Velvet]

There is an internal conflict inside PSOL regarding to having an own candidate or endorsing Lula already in the first round. The pro-Lula wing was stronger few months ago, but since the suggestion of a Lula/Alckmin ticket appeared, the wing supporting the own candidate became stronger.
If PSOL has its own candidate, probably this candidate will have between 3 and 5%, and it would be very hard for Lula to win already in the first round.

Surely after the Dilma impeachment and Temer presidency, Lula wouldn't actually pick a non-PT member to be VP?? Seems like it would be a massive mistake unless they absolutely need it to win, which it doesn't look like they do.

Oh you clearly don’t grasp how big of an ego Lula has.

He probably just blames what happened on Dilma’s political inability and her disgust in regards interacting with the crooks from “Centrão”. He thinks he’s immune to the kind of sh**t that happened with her because he’s all about trying to make everyone “happy” through compromise in order to be popular with the most amount of people possible.

And he manages to do it in a way that really makes everyone think he really IS in their side instead of the usual centrists who try to do this and manage to anger everyone. That’s because Lula actually talks and feels like a real person instead of a career politicians with prepared speech. He manages to sell paternalistic affection through his discourse that people buy regardless of ideologies.

In a past interview he talked about wanting to help “unite” evangelicals and the LGBT community with a both sides type of argument as if these groups were standing on equal footing and wasn’t a matter of one (evangelicals) attacking and the other reacting to people wanting to restrict their rights.

The first thing Lula will want is to have a center-right/right name even though polls show he doesn’t need it, to signal to the market and business leaders and push them to his side in order to have government stability during his full term (it’s not just about the election). He will give these people some seats in his government exactly like he did it in his 1st, alongside the parties who back his candidacy and coast as this national conciliator and peacemaker.

His VP is looking like it will be Alckmin (PSDB presidential candidate in 2006 and 2018 who is now leaving the party) and the PSOL kids are pretending to act shocked when the reason the party even exists is because there were PT left-wing dissidents after 2002 that were angry about Lula behaving like a centrist more and more. They left PT to start a more left-wing party that became PSOL.

However PSOL has transformed from a more left-wing option that it originally was to be now more associated with their focus on social-issue policies and their young university crowd of voters. And these last years made them more open to shift from their Anti-PT stance to be submissive to Lula again.

Brazilian left is domesticated (and traumatized) enough to buy his neoliberal speech mixed with some social democratic and social justice policy signaling in order to keep the base happy. That already feels like a victory though, even if the left has room to achieve much more. Because I’m honestly more against the crazy and radical Brazilian right (ideologues who would privatize their mother and transform the country in 1st fundamentalist Christian country dominated by churches) than I’m necessarily in favor of the left.

[Red Velvet]

New IPEC poll (One of the 2 most reliable Brazilian pollsters alongside Datafolha):

Lula (PT) 48%
Bolsonaro (PL) 21%
Sérgio Moro (PODEMOS) 6%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 5%
André Janones (AVANTE) 2%
João Doria (PSDB) 2%
Cabo Daciolo (PMN-BRASIL35) 1%
Simone Tebet (MDB) 1%
Null/Blanks 9%
Don’t Know 5%

Valid votes exclude null/blanks and abstentions so that’s already a 1st round outright win for Lula with over 50% of the valid vote.

Lula performs his best with:
- Northeast voters (63%)
- People living in the peripheral areas of the capitals (55%)
- Catholics (54%)

Bolsonaro performs his best with:
- Evangelicals (33%)
- North/Center-West voters (29%)
- South voters (27%)

Moro performs his best with:
- South voters (11%)

IPEC also released Brazilians opinion of the Bolsonaro government:

Great or Good 19%
Regular 25%
Bad or Awful 55%
Don’t Know 1%

When asking just whether they approve or not Bolsonaro’s way of governing:

Approve 27%
Disapprove 68%
Don’t Know 4%

About Brazilians trust on their president:

Trust 27%
Don’t Trust 70%
Don’t Know 3%

[Red Velvet]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1471152420499689472

How the Bolsonaro 2018 voter will migrate according to the IPEC poll. Only 45% of his original voters plan to vote for him again.

[buritobr]

For 2022, TSE (Supreme Electoral Court) changed the voting time.

Until 2018, in all the time zones, the polls opened at 8am and closed at 5pm.
Brazil has 4 time zones.
UTC-2: Fernando de Noronha
UTC-3: Brasília
UTC-4: Amazonas
UTC-5: Acre
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_in_Brazil
The large majority of the Brazilian population live at UTC-3, the Brasília time. The polls closed in Acre only at 7pm in Brasília, 2 hours after the large majority of the polls were already closed. But since there were people voting in Acre until it was 7pm in Brasília, no exit polls and no release of partial results were allowed before 5pm in Acre (pr 7pm in Brasília). But due to the electronic vote, the proceeding is very fast, so, at 7pm in Brasília, 80% of the polls were already proceeded. So, the first results released were the ones when 80% of the votes were already counted. Before 7pm in Brasília, some journalists used to have some insider information of the counting and published it in the Twitter.
In order to avoid these problems, the TSE establish a new voting time
UTC-2: polls open at 9am and close at 6pm
UTC-3: polls open at 8am and close at 5pm
UTC-4: polls open at 7am and close at 4pm
UTC-3: polls open at 6am and close at 3pm
So, all the polls close at the same time, at 5pm in Brasília, and at this time, the media will be allowed to show exit polls and the first results.

But probably there will be very few exit polls. Since the proceeding is very fast, the pollsters don't see motives to spend resources in exist polls. Datafolha doesn't make exit polls anymore. Ibope was the last one to have exit polls, but this pollster was replaced by Ipec.

If these new rules created by TSE were applied in the US, the polls in Hawai would close very early in order to have the same voting time of New York.