Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)
buritobr:
There are 12 months to the election, so, I created the thread, according to the rules of this Forum.
On October 2nd 2022, there will be election in Brazil for:
President
The president and the vice president are elected in the same ticket through national popular direct vote. If no candidate reaches >50% of the valid vote in the first round, there is a runoff on October 30th, in which the 2 candidates who had the biggest number of votes in the 1st round participate. Since Jair Bolsonaro is in his first term, he can run for reelection.
House
513 representatives are elected through an open list proportional representation system. The seats are allocated to the parties according to the proportion of votes the sum of their candidates receive. Each state has a number of seats according to its population, but there is a ceiling of 70 seats and a floor of 8 seats. If there was no celiing, São Paulo, the largest populated state would have 110 seats, and Roraima, Rondônia, Amapá and Acre would have fewer than 8 seats.
Senate
Each of 26 states and the Federal District has 3 senators. The senators, unlike other offices, have an 8 year term. But there are elections for the senate in every 4 years. So, in one election 2 senators from each state are elected, in the following one 1 senator is elected, in the following 2, in the following 1 and so on. In 2018, 2 senators from each state were elected. In 2022, 1 senator from each state will be elected. The senators are elected through a simple plurality vote. There is no runoff.
State governors
The 26 states and the Federal District elect there governors. The rules are the same of the election for president: a ticket including the governor and the vice governor is elected through direct popular vote. If no candidate reaches >50% in the 1st round, there is a runoff on October 30th.
State assemblies
The state representatives are elected through the same open list proportional representation system that exists at the federal level for the House.
Not Me, Us:
When should we expect people to start announcing? Is Lula gonna get in?
buritobr:
Quote from: Not Me, Us on October 04, 2021, 07:30:27 PM
When should we expect people to start announcing? Is Lula gonna get in?
The campaign has a 45 day duration. So, the deadline for the subscription of candidates is ~August 15th.
Red Velvet:
Quote from: Not Me, Us on October 04, 2021, 07:30:27 PM
When should we expect people to start announcing? Is Lula gonna get in?
PSDB primaries to pick their candidate for president in 2022 will already happen in November 21st this year (runoff is November 28th).
It will be a close call between João Doria (Governor of São Paulo) and Eduardo Leite (Governor of Rio Grande do Sul).
On one hand, whoever leads São Paulo is naturally way more powerful because it’s the state that has the largest share of PSDB electorate, while still being the most important Brazilian State economically. João Doria also did well by bringing the Chinese vaccine and anticipating vaccination in the country in a moment the federal government was intentionally inert on the matter.
On the other, João Doria is considered a divisive figure inside the party by most people from other States and Eduardo Leite is currently gaining momentum by getting support from big names in the party who are from places outside São Paulo. There’s this idea from some that João Doria is all ego and not trustworthy leader for the party, besides not even being that popular in his own State. So it will likely be a close primary.
Both Eduardo Leite and João Doria are figures to the right of older and more moderate traditional figures from the party though (such as Geraldo Alckmin, who is likely leaving the party next year).
IMO, the difference between them is mostly opposition rhetoric against Bolsonaro. Doria wants to sell himself as hard opposition against the president since the vaccination process started, while Eduardo Leite is more of a discreet opposition that doesn’t go hard against Bolsonaro.
Eduardo Leite is also probably seen in the party as someone younger and good looking who will represent a new and more positive brand for PSDB. He’s also openly gay and if they want to modernize themselves as this socially open minded economically right-wing option, could be good option to reach more liberal minds. Although it also risks maybe pushing away some of the socially conservative voters, although I hope that the candidate sexuality matters less and less even for these people as time passes.
That said, no one should underestimate the power of being the most powerful Governor of the country, which is the position João Doria holds as the leader of São Paulo. It will probably be close.
Votes of the PSDB primary will be counted like this:
Group 1 (25% weight in the vote) - People who are filiated to the party
Group 2 (25% weight in the vote) - Mayors and Mayor’s VPs from the party
Group 3 (25% weight in the vote) - State deputies (12,5%) and City Council Members (12,5%) from the party
Group 4 (25% weight in the vote) - Governors, Governor’s VPs, Former Presidents and the current PSDB president, Senators and Federal Deputies.
The other major parties don’t have primaries but it’s pretty clear who they will run. Lula running for PT and Ciro Gomes running for PDT is practically confirmed, unless a major twist happens along the way.
Bolsonaro left his party a year after winning the 2018 election so he needs to join a new one in order to run. He is in talks to join PP, which is basically just another “Centrão” dull type of party that would benefit from having him in their ticket simply because he would bring his base alongside and that would mean more votes and seats to their party in the legislative candidacies as a natural consequence. Same thing that happened with PSL in 2018 (they weren’t far-right party, they only became one after accommodating Bolsonaro, which they did in order to grow bigger).
There are other minor names from people from other multiple parties but they are basically mostly irrelevant. When they run it’s mostly to mark their position and try to help the party get more national recognition and votes for the legislative seats.
There’s rumors of maybe Sergio Moro (former judge who jailed Lula and then joined Bolsonaro government as Justice minister, only to later resign because he suddenly “discovered” the government was a mess) running for some party but I strongly doubt it, unless he has some humiliating kink because he would get crushed left and right by both Lula and Bolsonaro. Losing AGAIN to both of them.
Moro already lost to Lula after the Supreme Court released him and gave him back his political rights, after leaks from Car-Wash operation revealed the operation had bias and openly targeted Lula specifically without respecting due process.
And Moro already lost to Bolsonaro, being used as a nice accessory as his minister in order to give Bolsonaro the political benefits as the protagonist of the “Anti corruption right”, just to be later discarded as trash when he wasn’t being useful anymore.
Would be fun to see that sh**tty corrupt ex-judge in his knees again, but I doubt it. He would be hailed as a mainstream media fave though, same way they treated him as a hero in the fake inquisition process against Lula.
Rede Globo media is mostly economically right-wing and socially progressive, which makes them hate the guts of both the top 2 leading candidates. They always hated Lula for being economically left-wing and they currently hate Bolsonaro too for being authoritarian extremist (which is not good for business).
But media support is practically kiss of death nowadays, few still trust or respect them. And they have only themselves to blame for that. Since I don’t think Moro will run, Globo will likely just back the PSDB candidate regardless if it’s João Doria or Eduardo Leite.
In the middle of all this you also have Ciro Gomes being the anti-Lula left-wing option, defending that the Lula government just kept the neoliberalism from previous administrations while just giving the poor minor stuff in order to get their support. Ciro correctly points out that deindustrialization advanced during PT’s governments, which were supposed to work for the working class.
Ciro isn't radically left-wing though, he would be basically same thing as Lula in government (Read this as: he would also be forced to compromise with corrupt centrists in congress). But Ciro would likely give more attention to a nationalist and developmentalist project than Lula, who is running mostly based on his political celeb status than necessarily on a clear project. At least for now.
I see the election basically as a Lula vs Bolsonaro for now. With Ciro wanting to be new Lula and PSDB having to get its right-wing protagonist spot back from Bolsonaro, since they lost most of their voters to him in 2018.
1st tier (the protagonists)
Lula
Bolsonaro
2nd tier (secondary actors trying to get the protagonist spot)
Ciro Gomes
PSDB - Eduardo Leite OR João Doria
3rd tier (extras in the background, mostly irrelevant)
Sérgio Moro
Everyone else (Datena, Mandetta, etc)
Mike88:
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Wasn't aware of this. Interesting. Who would they support in the elections, the PSDB candidate, Doria or Leite? Or present their own?
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