UT Sen 2022: McMullin vs. Lee

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Endorsed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's wait til we see a poll, I like McMullin


It's VBM not same day voting anything can happen, no one thought D's would get 80M votes but the Rs overachiever with Trump and got 75M these races aren't gonna be decided on Election night we waited until Friday especially PA and WI, and MI, that's why the R Nut map on the compiled map is wrong it's VBM

I keep saying this over and over again😁😁😁

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's VBM and UT, CO, WA, OR and AK are fickled with VBM that's why Gross almost won the Senate race against Sullivan and Bill Walker with Begich came within inches of Dunleavy don't underestimate the VBM system in any state and watch out for OH and NC, McConnell listed OH, NC, LA, GA, WI, PA, AZ, NV and NH as battlegrounds we have more targets in Govs and Senate but obviously Rs have more in the H😆😆😆

Betsy Johnson will be the next Gov of OR not done D

It's not same day voting where a decision will be made on Election night, they may call the H but due to LA and GA Runoffs the Senate will in flux for awhile

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

UT, AK, OR and KS can be surprises AK Gov not Sen Murkowski is safe because they don't break the red wall that much and Kelly like Beshear is an entrenched incumbent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good I hope he beats Lee and Romney next in 24, Romney isn't moderate he blocked Voting Rights the only one that's a Mav was McCain for ACA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's too early to rate any competetive race Lean even OH, FL, NC, LA,MOand AK as users think by making an R nut map they are trying to call races nine MNTHS before an Election

They haven't polled the OR or AK Gov races which has third party candidates and Betsy Johnson can win

Biden says he intends to campaign in the Fall for all competetive seats because this is the most important election of our lifetime if D's net the Trifecta, no more Sinema blocking Filibuster reform

If Iin October these Red state D's running are nine pts down then it's Titanium R but it's not October

We all know the intention of users making R NUT MAPS THEY ARE ATTEMPTING TO CALL THE MIDTERMS FOR THE RS NINE MNTHS OUT, NO, NO, NO, IS THIS 2004 WHERE WE CANT WIN RED States NO ITS 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lee is gonna win McMullin stands zero chance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're gonna have to watch this race it's VBM if Betsy Johnson is competetive in OR McMillan can too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Getting rid of any Establishment E that votes with McConnell is what Ds all about, just like Ron Johnson whom is the key to winning the S blocked the Jt Commission on Insurrection because he praised like Cruz Proud Boys and Josh Hawley abd Johnson won barely by 200K votes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lee will do worse than in 2016, perhaps even a lot worse, though I'm not seeing him anywhere at risk of losing. Safe R.

He's gonna lose just watch just like Beasley and Ryan may win and Barnes may lose power of incumbent, if we win PA, OH, NC, NV, GA, AZ, UT we solidify 52 plus seats and of course Schumer will offer McMillan caucus chairmanship if Ds have a clear majority McMullin already said if Ds have a clear majority he will caucus with Ds because he isn't MAGA TRUMP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think McMuffin winning is pretty unlikely he'll do pretty well though probably get between 40-45% and outrun Biden

It's not unlikely it's called a midterm not Prez Eday in 2018 was the first Midterm that we didn't fair poorly, granted it was a Trump midterm but we arent behind in the GCB like we were in 2010/14 we were 6 pts down, Rs we're expecting to win all these races by landslides including PA and NV and GA

Inside Advantage in Jan 2022 had Rs winning 54 Sen 245 H seats that would have wiped Ds out the entire Decade now either 22/24 we can get a Filibuster proof majority we are gonna keep the S it depends on the H majority in 22/24

Lol the Rs are back to where they were during 2012 not 2016 because in 2012 Romney lost 303 just like Trump did in 2020 and because of the insurrection, Trump is in no better position than Romney was

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map anyways but if Ds get to 52 and fail to win OH, NC or FL McMullin will be coerced to join Schumer and Ds by offering a chairmanship our probability of 53/47 Senate is about 69 percent and it won't be just 52 seats it's gonna be 53)47 with McMullin as a Chairman of a D subcommittee because he wouldn't want to be Ranking members in R minority

But won't be a factor in negotiating the Filibuster rules change because we would have 52 seats already

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He won't join a caucus, so what's the goal? Deny Utah representation in Senate committees?

He’s marginally better than Lee, which is all that matters.

We should all wait until the Eday is over because if Ds have the majority Schumer will give him a Chairmanship he wont say whom he will caucus with now because it will endanger him for Eday but after Eday he can declare, that's pretty obvious , the more seats D have the better it is for him to caucus with us, why would he want to caucus with Rs and he wouldnt be even rankings member on a subcommittee, he can be offered any chairmanship of a subcommittee not regular committee if Ds have a 52/47 Senate all bets is that it will be 53/47

Rs say it's Safe R  or he won't caucus because they know it they make it 53/47 or 54/48 or 55/45 with OH, NC and UT they won't win the Senate back that's why so many users believe Johnson is ahead, Lean R means like TX Beto never lead in a poll, Tossup means Ryan, Beasley and McMULLIN lead in some polls it doesn't mean +1/3 pts in a state

Johnson was Plus 6 in LV tied in RV and -1 in Clarity poll that's not Lean R when Evers is plus 5 there is no way Johnson wins by 6 and Evers win by 5

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know this, he will declare after Eday he can't now because he hasn't been elected it's UT not ME where King declared with Ds right before Eday, why would he side with an R minority

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He said he isn't caucus with anyone but will vote more with Ds, but in MSNBC he didn't say what he would do if it's 50/50 and he is the 50th vote, but I know this is UT not ME and he knows he can't get elected as a D caucus member he must stay indy

The Ds don't need him to caucus with us anyways we have wave insurance seats anyways WI, GA, OH, NC and IA , we have just as many pickups in Govs and S as Rs have in H

Don't be surprised about FL, SD or IN going D Bengs can do a Heidikamper

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The realistic scenario is a 52/47/1 D Senate but of course IA, OH, NC and FL are still Tossups especially NC we won the Gov race in 2020 the Pundits have NC as Lean R and UT they are making the same mistake as they did on AK and NY 19 the maps are blank on Eday there are no rankings in Eday

I have a gut feeling we are gonna win NC and OH and IA and UT and have an expanded map but why they don't make UT and NC Tossups and Sabato has WI as Lean R, is beyond me

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yesterday polls clearly moved UT and NC down on the rankings now it's basically down to OH and IA as wave insurance and along with Barnes, Fetterman, FRANKEN and Ryan that's 54/46 Senate majority

We lost IA last time because of Greenfield if FRANKEN was the nominee we would have won, Lee has a 15 pt Advantage, it can be an upset in any wave insurance but they just move down that's all

I have a gut feeling Barnes, Fetterman, FRANKEN, Ryan are gonna do better than Beasley and DEMINGS just like last time Greenfield, Gideon and Boiler all lost, if Ryan and FRANKEN wins that's gonna help Gwen Graham make up her mind and challenge Scott in 24 and Daines is up again in 26 hopefully Bullock reconsider if we have a Filibuster proof Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kinzinger-campaigns-mcmullin-utah-m-162622647.html

I underestimated McMullin, obviously, he won't caucus with us unless it's a 49/50 split and Veep Harris carris the tie breaker but he would be key to Filibuster reform

If I were Rs I would be nervous even if Rs win the H about UT, OH, NC, IA, WI, NV, GA

Ds are still gonna win PA, NH and AZ