UT Sen 2022: McMullin vs. Lee

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/JennyWilsonUT/status/1500937363953836032
wow Ben Mcadams and Jenny Wilson Backing Mcmuffin now you gotta wonder if the D's are gonna be pressured to drop out

Especially since the likely D candidate is a Lincoln Project founder who has essentially the same centrist positions as McMuffin.

[MT Treasurer]

McMullin is going to be the de-facto D candidate in this race, which means that he’s DOA in November regardless of whether the other Democrats drop out or not (sane).

[Skye]

The race is Safe R regardless of what Dems do, but I'm curious to see the % McMuffin ends up etting.

[JMT]

The race is Safe R regardless of what Dems do, but I'm curious to see the % McMuffin ends up etting.

Agreed. I do still hope the Democratic candidate drops out in favor of McMullin, just so the race can be closer. But, Lee will win regardless, unfortunately.

[Vice President Christian Man]

https://twitter.com/JennyWilsonUT/status/1500937363953836032
wow Ben Mcadams and Jenny Wilson Backing Mcmuffin now you gotta wonder if the D's are gonna be pressured to drop out

Especially since the likely D candidate is a Lincoln Project founder who has essentially the same centrist positions as McMuffin.

Schmidt never declared

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good I hope he beats Lee and Romney next in 24, Romney isn't moderate he blocked Voting Rights the only one that's a Mav was McCain for ACA

[SpartanburgSam]

Why do so many people think Kael Weston will drop out? He has made it very clear he will stay in.

[Utah Neolib]

Why do so many people think Kael Weston will drop out? He has made it very clear he will stay in.

Honestly had no idea he was even in the race lol

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Why do so many people think Kael Weston will drop out? He has made it very clear he will stay in.

Because people believe that the Democrats will do the sane thing (Weston+McMullin is +2 over Lee in recent polling) but they forget these are the Democrats, the will do whatever it takes to lose.

[President Johnson]

McMullin is going to be the de-facto D candidate in this race, which means that he’s DOA in November regardless of whether the other Democrats drop out or not (sane).

He'll probably do much better than any Democrat could (similar to Greg Orman in Kansas 2014), but I agree that this is Safe Republican/Lee regardless.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's too early to rate any competetive race Lean even OH, FL, NC, LA,MOand AK as users think by making an R nut map they are trying to call races nine MNTHS before an Election

They haven't polled the OR or AK Gov races which has third party candidates and Betsy Johnson can win

Biden says he intends to campaign in the Fall for all competetive seats because this is the most important election of our lifetime if D's net the Trifecta, no more Sinema blocking Filibuster reform

If Iin October these Red state D's running are nine pts down then it's Titanium R but it's not October

We all know the intention of users making R NUT MAPS THEY ARE ATTEMPTING TO CALL THE MIDTERMS FOR THE RS NINE MNTHS OUT, NO, NO, NO, IS THIS 2004 WHERE WE CANT WIN RED States NO ITS 2022

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Why do so many people think Kael Weston will drop out? He has made it very clear he will stay in.

Yo another I-SC

Though I guess since I’m staying in AL there won’t be confusion

[Mr. Smith]

Why do so many people think Kael Weston will drop out? He has made it very clear he will stay in.

Because people believe that the Democrats will do the sane thing (Weston+McMullin is +2 over Lee in recent polling) but they forget these are the Democrats, the will do whatever it takes to lose.

Won't matter, it's KS-2014 all over again.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Why do so many people think Kael Weston will drop out? He has made it very clear he will stay in.

Because people believe that the Democrats will do the sane thing (Weston+McMullin is +2 over Lee in recent polling) but they forget these are the Democrats, the will do whatever it takes to lose.

Won't matter, it's KS-2014 all over again.

SEN or GOV?

[NotSoLucky]

Why is he running as an independent? Why not try a primary challenge?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Why is he running as an independent? Why not try a primary challenge?

Because he has a 0.1% chance winning the general as an independent by having all the dem votes + moderate Republicans, whereas he would have had a 0% chance of primarying Lee.

[NotSoLucky]

Why is he running as an independent? Why not try a primary challenge?

Because he has a 0.1% chance winning the general as an independent by having all the dem votes + moderate Republicans, whereas he would have had a 0% chance of primarying Lee.

I mean, Joe Lieberman did this exact strategy in 2006 when Ned Lamont defeated him in the Senate primary, he ran under the "Connecticut for Lieberman" party and won with 49% of the vote to Lamont's 39% and the Republican's 9%

But McMullin needs to win like, the endorsement of Mitt Romney, or something like that, in order to win in Utah. Otherwise he risks being a spoiler candidate.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Why is he running as an independent? Why not try a primary challenge?

Because he has a 0.1% chance winning the general as an independent by having all the dem votes + moderate Republicans, whereas he would have had a 0% chance of primarying Lee.

I mean, Joe Lieberman did this exact strategy in 2006 when Ned Lamont defeated him in the Senate primary, he ran under the "Connecticut for Lieberman" party and won with 49% of the vote to Lamont's 39% and the Republican's 9%

But McMullin needs to win like, the endorsement of Mitt Romney, or something like that, in order to win in Utah. Otherwise he risks being a spoiler candidate.

A spoiler candidate for who? The dem would not have won no matter the scenario

[Utah Neolib]

This is Safe R, if McMullin’s lucky he can improve off Biden by a point or two.

[Sub Jero]

Trump endorsed Mike Lee

This is gonna be Florida 2010 all over again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lee is gonna win McMullin stands zero chance

[Sub Jero]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottTParkinson/status/1506372959920967687
Gonna be interesting to see how this ends up.

Also,
https://mobile.twitter.com/sltrib/status/1510361454645583887

[JMT]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottTParkinson/status/1506372959920967687
Gonna be interesting to see how this ends up.

Also,
https://mobile.twitter.com/sltrib/status/1510361454645583887

Democrats might as well support McMullin’s candidacy and boot Weston from the ballot. It’s better to have a, say, ~5% chance of winning than a 0% chance. I think it’s a good idea.

That said, the strategy of backing an independent as the de facto Democratic nominee hasn’t worked in other states. I’m thinking Greg Orman in Kansas in 2014, and Al Gross and Alyse Galvin in Alaska in 2020. It DID work for Bill Walker in Alaska in 2014, but Governor’s races aren’t the same as federal races.

[NYDem]

The Democrats aren't going to win either way, so they might as well embrace chaos and enjoy it. McMullin for Senate!

[Coldstream]

Better to back McMullin and have a slim chance than back a some guy no hoper. McMullin could quite easily win if Lee goes down in a scandal, a Democrat couldn’t even then.