What is more to blame for the suburban shift towards Democrats?

[GregTheGreat657]

I'd say they are both equally to blame, if not demographics being more so to blame for the suburban shift than Trump.

[THG]

Places like the Atlanta suburbs and NOVA were shifting against the GOP long before Trump.

Trump merely accelerated an existing trend.

[TML]

It seems that this current trend of suburbs shifting toward Democrats dates way back to 1992, when states like CT and NJ (which contained most of NYC's suburbs outside of NY state) flipped from R to D and have since become solid D.

It should be noted that this suburban shift is not just limited to the US - in countries like Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the UK, their left-leaning parties have also gained ground in suburban, college-educated areas while losing ground in rural, working-class areas in recent years.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

60% Trump taking over the GOP
40% College-educated folks + younger families moving in who are way more left-leaning than in previous decades

As mentioned earlier, a lot of your Orange County's & suburban Texas were gonna shift Dem eventually. Trump just turbocharged it by 5-20 years.

EDIT: For Orange County specifically, it's not like it went from solid R to likely D overnight. Obama kept it to single-digits in 2008/2012 and its margins in the gubernatorial races fell sharply between 2006 & 2014. If Trump never ran and OC didn't flip in 2016, it absolutely would've flipped by 2024/2028.

[sting in the rafters]

Gotta say demographic change. A big factor is most Gen X and millennial suburbanites were the first demographic with both the passion and income to extensively use the internet which only increased their propensities for cultural liberalism. Think ab it. The teenager who rebelled at their parents for not letting them play Quake and spent hours on their Geocities page is now married with children of their own.

[Schiff for Senate]

Places like the Atlanta suburbs and NOVA were shifting against the GOP long before Trump.

Trump merely accelerated an existing trend.

60% Trump taking over the GOP
40% College-educated folks + younger families moving in who are way more left-leaning than in previous decades

As mentioned earlier, a lot of your Orange County's & suburban Texas were gonna shift Dem eventually. Trump just turbocharged it by 5-20 years.

I think I agree with these analyses. It's unfair to pinpoint one of them, necessarily. I think it's a mixture, and also it's a case-by-case thing. The Milwaukee suburbs' slight leftward trend, for instance, was probably mostly Trump-related, whereas with other suburbs it may have been more demographic-driven.

I vote Trump-related, however, since I think overall that was a bigger factor.

[TodayJunior]

Mostly migration and the diffusion of Democrat-leaning voters, but Trump definitely accelerated it. Mitt Romney, were he to run today would not recover any of what he won in 2012. The GOP is dead nationally; they’re just in denial.

[chalmetteowl]

Mostly migration and the diffusion of Democrat-leaning voters, but Trump definitely accelerated it. Mitt Romney, were he to run today would not recover any of what he won in 2012. The GOP is dead nationally; they’re just in denial.

Mitt Romney is not Trump though... him and similar republicans won't produce the same feelings of "ick" in those voters

[thebeloitmoderate]

Also in Georgia and the Texas suburbs (HTX/DFW) there is the Reverse Great Migration meaning most of those black folks from the Midwest/Northeast have left the area and moved into the big 3 south metro areas

[OSR stands with Israel]

I would say Trump accelerated suburban Trends by 6-8 years.

[darklordoftech]

The rise of Trump is a reaction to suburbs shifting away from the GOP.

[Ferguson97]

Agreed with the consensus, demographics would have caused the shift eventually but Trump accelerated it.

[TodayJunior]

Mostly migration and the diffusion of Democrat-leaning voters, but Trump definitely accelerated it. Mitt Romney, were he to run today would not recover any of what he won in 2012. The GOP is dead nationally; they’re just in denial.

Mitt Romney is not Trump though... him and similar republicans won't produce the same feelings of "ick" in those voters

True, but these trends are irreversible, even for a Romney-type Republican. The GOP might get back to 2016 levels in some places, but these results were mostly a snapshot in time as the leftward lurch was in process. Fairfax Co 2004 would be a good example of this where the GOP got 45%, but it was clearly a lurch leftwards from where it was in the previous cycles, and no Republican, even a moderate one, would get that margin today. Henry and Gwinnett Co GA 2016 are two other ones that come to mind as well. Dems will clear 60% there in 2022, 2024 and beyond.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Mostly migration and the diffusion of Democrat-leaning voters, but Trump definitely accelerated it. Mitt Romney, were he to run today would not recover any of what he won in 2012. The GOP is dead nationally; they’re just in denial.

Mitt Romney is not Trump though... him and similar republicans won't produce the same feelings of "ick" in those voters

Romney>Trump in the suburbs but that doesnt mean he would go back to 2012 levels there. Keep in mind he was a better fit for many types of suburbs than George W Bush was but did worse in those areas as well.

A lot of that was due to Demographic Changes that took place from 2004 to 2012(including generational demogrpahics) that made it impossible to reach the same share of the vote you got back then even if you matched the crosstabs.

[Non Swing Voter]

On the one hand the talking point is that Rio Grande is trending R because minorities are trending R.  On the other, the talking point is that the suburbs are shifting because of demographics.

Doesn't compute.  Minorities aren't trending to Republicans.  But to answer the original question, it's clearly both but moreso the former.  Losing college educated whites has been absolutely devastating for Republicans.  They went from winning this group in the suburbs by double digits to probably losing them by double digits.  The diversification of the suburbs is just gravy for Dems.  Though it depends which suburbs you are talking about.  In places like Texas and Georgia it's mostly diversification.  In places like Virginia and Pennsylvania it's mostly college educated whites.

[Smash255]

On the one hand the talking point is that Rio Grande is trending R because minorities are trending R.  On the other, the talking point is that the suburbs are shifting because of demographics.

Doesn't compute.  Minorities aren't trending to Republicans.  But to answer the original question, it's clearly both but moreso the former.  Losing college educated whites has been absolutely devastating for Republicans.  They went from winning this group in the suburbs by double digits to probably losing them by double digits.  The diversification of the suburbs is just gravy for Dems.  Though it depends which suburbs you are talking about.  In places like Texas and Georgia it's mostly diversification.  In places like Virginia and Pennsylvania it's mostly college educated whites.

While I do not think minorities are trending Republican (in most areas I think it was a dead cat bounce more than anything), though an argument could be made.  However, even going with the minorities are trending Republican argument it is not mutually exclusive with the demographic changes in the suburbs.   Minorities even if voting not quite as solid D as they were, are still voting much more D than the whites they are replacing in the suburbs.

With that said, to answer the main question it really is a combination of the two of them.  Suburbs becoming more diverse has certainly hurt the Republicans there.  The march of college educated whites away from the GOP is also a key reason.  This predates Trump and is something we would have seen even without Trump, but he has certainly accelerated that trend.

[Non Swing Voter]

On the one hand the talking point is that Rio Grande is trending R because minorities are trending R.  On the other, the talking point is that the suburbs are shifting because of demographics.

Doesn't compute.  Minorities aren't trending to Republicans.  But to answer the original question, it's clearly both but moreso the former.  Losing college educated whites has been absolutely devastating for Republicans.  They went from winning this group in the suburbs by double digits to probably losing them by double digits.  The diversification of the suburbs is just gravy for Dems.  Though it depends which suburbs you are talking about.  In places like Texas and Georgia it's mostly diversification.  In places like Virginia and Pennsylvania it's mostly college educated whites.

While I do not think minorities are trending Republican (in most areas I think it was a dead cat bounce more than anything), though an argument could be made.  However, even going with the minorities are trending Republican argument it is not mutually exclusive with the demographic changes in the suburbs.   Minorities even if voting not quite as solid D as they were, are still voting much more D than the whites they are replacing in the suburbs.

With that said, to answer the main question it really is a combination of the two of them.  Suburbs becoming more diverse has certainly hurt the Republicans there.  The march of college educated whites away from the GOP is also a key reason.  This predates Trump and is something we would have seen even without Trump, but he has certainly accelerated that trend.

I agree with all of this generally.  I just think it's very suburb specific and in most cases where it matters electorally, it's college educated whites doing it.  The big exception, IMO, is Georgia where the suburbs are becoming a lot more diverse and basically replacing 80-20 Republican whites with 80-20 Democratic minorities. 

[dw93]

The suburban shift, IIRC, began with Bill Clinton, so they had been their for close to three decades now. That said a variety of factors since then, the southernization of the GOP that began with the 1994 midterms and intensified with George W. Bush, the Great Recession happening under Bush, as well as the Tea Party movement all were in a way accelerants of said suburban trend that predated Trump. That said, Trump kicked things into hyperdrive, Texas, which went from voting for Romney by almost 16 points in 2012 to only going to Trump by less than 6 points in 2020, alone is proof of that.

[Bismarck]

Demographic shifts are huge. A lot of upscale suburbs are going to be plurality Asian in 30 years I think.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Surprised Option 1 is leading the poll now, it’s definitely demographic changes and generational replacement IMO

[CEO Mindset]

most people with degrees being bad people