Rate Mahoning and Trumbull county Ohio?

[Cyrusman]

?

[Devils30]

Trumbull- safe R
Mahoning- lean R

If Harris is the nominee I can see a 67-32% wipeout in places like Trumbull.

[Chips]

Lean R and Likely R respectively.

[Grassroots]

Trumbull is safe R, while Mahoning is lean R.

[Schiff for Senate]

Trumbull- safe R
Mahoning- lean R

If Harris is the nominee I can see a 67-32% wipeout in places like Trumbull.

Trumbull may be safe Republican but will certainly not swing 25 points to the right (from 10 points to 35) from 2020, even if Harris is the nominee. Best case scenario for the GOP in the county, they win by 15 points. No more.

Anyway, I rate them as follows:

Trumbull: Safe Republican (yes, it gave Obama north of 60% in 2012, but it voted for Trump by more than 10 points in 2020, which is too much for it to be even slightly competitive in 2024)
Mahoning: Tossup (another Obama 2012 - Trump 2020 county in Northeast OH that had not supported the GOP since 1972, except it flipped in 2020 instead of 2016, but this time, it backed Trump in 2020 by just 1.9 points, a margin not at all insurmountable...and Trump in 2020 was a better fit for the area than Trump 2024 or any other Republican will be, which is why I'm going to be bold and call this one a tossup; I don't think the GOP will win by more than 2 points at most)

[Senator-elect Spark]

Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trumbull- safe R
Mahoning- lean R

If Harris is the nominee I can see a 67-32% wipeout in places like Trumbull.

OH , FL and NC are still swing states, they're just not topping pt states in a close Election, we can still win them

[TDAS04]

They’ll both vote R.  Trends are real.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They’ll both vote R.  Trends are real.

Sherrod Brown in the most recent poll OH poll taken has a 50% approval and D's are still targeting OH, NC and FL for the Midterms we have competetive H races, the D's aren't targeting TX, IA, and MO, except TX, IA House Election

Tim Ryan is statistically tied with Mandel in that poll too

Unless you see an IA in those Senate races, Act blue is still supporting Demings, Beasley and Ryan

[JGibson]

Trumbull: Safe R
Mahoning: Tilt R

Bonus: Sherrod Brown (D) v. TBA (R) in OH-SEN:
Trumbull: Likely R
Mahoning: Lean D

[MarkD]

Both lean D. They will snap back. Trump was unusual and temporarily fascinating, but these counties will return to form.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R and Likely R respectively.
[/quote

Yeah and D's thought OH belonged to us in 2008/12 when we won it and 2014 Rs took it back, NOTHING LAST FOREVER oH has 12 percent Blk unlike IA has 3 percent Blk it's still a purple not tipping pt state😁😁😁

[Xing]

I'd agree with Lean R and Safe R, respectively. Another problem for Democrats is that these areas are losing population, and the people leaving tend to be Democrats, so even if a few Trump voters switch back to the Democrats, that probably wouldn't offset the migration of Democratic voters from this area.

[TodayJunior]

In theory, if you have counties in metro areas of Dallas/Houston/Atlanta going hard left, then the opposite would be true for places like these, but perhaps not as severe. The idea is the same. Both vote R.

[sting in the rafters]

Pres:
Trumbull: Lean R closer to Likely
Mahoning: Tilt R
Sen:
Trumbull:Lean R
Mahoning Lean D

Trumbull flipped due to Ds switching to R and Brown still won it by double-digits in '18, Mahoning flipped due to Trump having super-heated turnout. The magic number for both depends on how many ancestral Ds continue to die off/move away. Perhaps a successful rollout of Build Back Better can bring some back into the fold plus Biden would have incumbent advantage but nobody should hold their breath on that one considering how everything's looking right now.

No matter what, the D collapse in NE Ohio is here to stay. The only question is whether enough of the lower-propensity Trump voters drop off.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I'd agree with Lean R and Safe R, respectively. Another problem for Democrats is that these areas are losing population, and the people leaving tend to be Democrats, so even if a few Trump voters switch back to the Democrats, that probably wouldn't offset the migration of Democratic voters from this area.

its obviously not Democrats leaving that is flipping these Counties, given that Obama actually did better in both in 2012 than he did in 2008 despite doing worse nationally, and how the entire 2018 Democratic ticket put up relatively strong numbers in both Counties despite Trump doing well in 2016 and 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's silly to think OH, FL and NC are gone forever Biden wo then in 2008/2012 with Obama as Veeo TRENDS DONT LAST FOREVER, RS WON THEM IN 2014, BUT Trump won OH by 10 and Brown won it in 2018/ TRENDS ARENT FOREVER ONLY RA THINK THIS, ITS SILLY

If Trump runs again he will lose more than 304 EC votes that's for sure to Biden he is a weak candidate among everyone except Hardcore Rs he never reached 50% Approvals

[S019]

Trumbull: Safe R
Mahoning: Likely R

[here2view]

Mahoning: Lean R
Trumbull: Safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mahoning: Lean R
Trumbull: Safe R

No, Biden is leading Trump in FL, it's a bold Prediction but OH, NC and FL are still 🟣🟣🟣🟣

[Schiff for Senate]

Both lean D. They will snap back. Trump was unusual and temporarily fascinating, but these counties will return to form.

I think Trumbull might actually be gone, but I agree with you overall; there's no way Northern Ohio and Ohio generally will continue trending rightward once Trump is gone, and if anything, they might well trend leftward. Trumbull went red by double digits so it is probably gone for the Democrats, but I can very easily see Mahoning flipping back. Lean D might be an exaggeration, though Tilt D probably is not.