Why did Bush carry Morris/Somerset/Hunterdon, NJ?

[Suburbia]

Why did Bush carry those counties while losing Bergen, Burlington and Monmouth?

[TML]

Back then, wealthy suburban areas were much more Republican than they are now (the same would explain why Bush was the last Republican presidential candidate to sweep Chicago’s collar counties).

[darklordoftech]

Morris County was solidly Republican before Trump.

[Schiff for Senate]

Morris County was solidly Republican before Trump.

Yes, and of note is that it still isn't that blue a county - it gave Ciatterelli a decent margin the governor race.

[Asenath Waite]

What everyone else said, tbh Hunterdon should be the least surprising given that even in this era it went for Trump twice and is reliably Republican at the state level.

[Asenath Waite]

Morris County was solidly Republican before Trump.

Yes, and of note is that it still isn't that blue a county - it gave Ciatterelli a decent margin the governor race.

To me a textbook example of why Democrats shouldn’t rely exclusively on wealthy suburbanites.

[Schiff for Senate]

Morris County was solidly Republican before Trump.

Yes, and of note is that it still isn't that blue a county - it gave Ciatterelli a decent margin the governor race.

To me a textbook example of why Democrats shouldn’t rely exclusively on wealthy suburbanites.

In all fairness the entire state of NJ swung some 15 points to the right from 2020 presidential to 2021 gubernatorial. It would've been a miracle had Morris County backed Murphy. Having said that, I agree with your point - that such voters shouldn't be treated as too reliable, since it remains to be seen whether their voting blue was just a Trump thing or is a more permanent shift. The 2021 gubernatorial elections don't bode that well. It's because of that point which you made that I'm skeptical of the belief espoused by most of this forum, the conventional knowledge that GA is now a bluish state that is very soon going to be a safe blue state out of reach for the GOP...it's been compared to IL, and people have indicated they believe NM could go red while GA goes blue, despite NM voting 10 points to the left of GA and IL more than 15 points to the left of GA. I consider GA a purple swing state that might tilt Republican if Trump isn't nominated in 2024 - because there was a massive number of Romney/Biden voters in the state, and while a majority are likely gone for the GOP forever, I can see a decent percentage of Never Trump Republicans reverting to the GOP if Trump isn't renominated, and given how close the state was in 2024, it might well be enough to tilt the state rightward once again. Of course, GA is trending leftward in the long-term, but until we get more information/results from the suburbs, we can't be sure that the Atlanta suburbs, or suburbs generally, are now safely blue - I could see the suburbs of Atlanta shifting rightward in 2024 because of the aforementioned factors, and this shift being enough to flip the state. Democrats shouldn't take these voters for granted at all, and as VA showed, they need to up their game from 'The GOP is the party of Trump' if they want to do as well as Biden did in the suburbs.

[Asenath Waite]

Morris County was solidly Republican before Trump.

Yes, and of note is that it still isn't that blue a county - it gave Ciatterelli a decent margin the governor race.

To me a textbook example of why Democrats shouldn’t rely exclusively on wealthy suburbanites.

In all fairness the entire state of NJ swung some 15 points to the right from 2020 presidential to 2021 gubernatorial. It would've been a miracle had Morris County backed Murphy. Having said that, I agree with your point - that such voters shouldn't be treated as too reliable, since it remains to be seen whether their voting blue was just a Trump thing or is a more permanent shift. The 2021 gubernatorial elections don't bode that well. It's because of that point which you made that I'm skeptical of the belief espoused by most of this forum, the conventional knowledge that GA is now a bluish state that is very soon going to be a safe blue state out of reach for the GOP...it's been compared to IL, and people have indicated they believe NM could go red while GA goes blue, despite NM voting 10 points to the left of GA and IL more than 15 points to the left of GA. I consider GA a purple swing state that might tilt Republican if Trump isn't nominated in 2024 - because there was a massive number of Romney/Biden voters in the state, and while a majority are likely gone for the GOP forever, I can see a decent percentage of Never Trump Republicans reverting to the GOP if Trump isn't renominated, and given how close the state was in 2024, it might well be enough to tilt the state rightward once again. Of course, GA is trending leftward in the long-term, but until we get more information/results from the suburbs, we can't be sure that the Atlanta suburbs, or suburbs generally, are now safely blue - I could see the suburbs of Atlanta shifting rightward in 2024 because of the aforementioned factors, and this shift being enough to flip the state. Democrats shouldn't take these voters for granted at all, and as VA showed, they need to up their game from 'The GOP is the party of Trump' if they want to do as well as Biden did in the suburbs.

Either they need to up there game to do that well in the suburbs or they need to return to the 50 state strategy and try to cut into Republican margins in rural areas so they can be less reliant on the suburbs. Probably both.