Virginia always tightens and I don't think the Dems have the energy on their side right now. But the dems always overperform their polls in VA as well in most races, so I suspect this is still likely/borderline safe TMAC.
The last Fox poll in 2017 only had Northam up 5, 48-43. And then he won by 9, 53-45, so.
I would be careful about making too many assumptions from 2017. Polls in VA have mostly been accurate since then. Polls were also wrong in the opposite direction in 2013, the last time when McAuliffe was the Dem candidate and there was a Dem president.
