Fox-VA- McAuliffe +4 (user search)
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  Fox-VA- McAuliffe +4 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Fox-VA- McAuliffe +4  (Read 1557 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« on: October 02, 2021, 06:54:54 AM »

A 4 point race is “tight” in the sense that one wrong move by the candidate ahead could make it 50-50.

This is a very flawed argument because it completely overlooks the fact that there is only a very limited number of persuadable voters. Someone who until this very point has not been receptive to Youngkin's (very smart and disciplined) messaging is unlikely to change their mind once McAuliffe makes "one wrong move."

Would a better way of putting is that Youngkin needs to win 70% of undecided voters?
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2021, 07:47:21 AM »

If it was a "tight race" it would be 44-44.

McAulife could literally be up by 7-8 and we'd still get "close race!!!" headlines.

A 4 point race is “tight” in the sense that one wrong move by the candidate ahead could make it 50-50.


More accurately, a 4 point race is tight because the poll has a 3% margin of error (meaning the result could be anywhere from McAuliffe 51/41 to Youngkin 47/45).

3% on both sides is 6%? If that’s the case, then being tied in a MoE situation of 1000 means any race less than 6 points.

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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 36,681
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2021, 05:59:23 PM »


53-46 then?
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