Fox-VA- McAuliffe +4
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  Fox-VA- McAuliffe +4
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Author Topic: Fox-VA- McAuliffe +4  (Read 1553 times)
Matty
boshembechle
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« on: September 30, 2021, 05:28:56 PM »



Seems about right

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-tight-race-for-virginia-governor
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Chips
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2021, 05:42:03 PM »

I have McAuliffe+4-5 right now.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2021, 05:46:49 PM »

If it was a "tight race" it would be 44-44.

McAulife could literally be up by 7-8 and we'd still get "close race!!!" headlines.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2021, 06:09:15 PM »

There's that 44% number again for Youngkin.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2021, 06:11:09 PM »

If it was a "tight race" it would be 44-44.

McAulife could literally be up by 7-8 and we'd still get "close race!!!" headlines.

A 4 point race is “tight” in the sense that one wrong move by the candidate ahead could make it 50-50.
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S019
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2021, 06:22:08 PM »

McAuliffe is up narrowly but consistently, he should have this unless there are bad developments in October for his campaign.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2021, 06:26:42 PM »

If it was a "tight race" it would be 44-44.

McAulife could literally be up by 7-8 and we'd still get "close race!!!" headlines.

A 4 point race is “tight” in the sense that one wrong move by the candidate ahead could make it 50-50.


But is that realistic to do in Virginia? Especially since, like I said before, Youngkin rarely exceeds 44% support in polls.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2021, 06:46:30 PM »

Virginia always tightens and I don't think the Dems have the energy on their side right now. But the dems always overperform their polls in VA as well in most races, so I suspect this is still likely/borderline safe TMAC.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2021, 05:17:59 AM »

Virginia always tightens and I don't think the Dems have the energy on their side right now. But the dems always overperform their polls in VA as well in most races, so I suspect this is still likely/borderline safe TMAC.

The last Fox poll in 2017 only had Northam up 5, 48-43. And then he won by 9, 53-45, so.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2021, 09:36:03 AM »

Virginia always tightens and I don't think the Dems have the energy on their side right now. But the dems always overperform their polls in VA as well in most races, so I suspect this is still likely/borderline safe TMAC.

The last Fox poll in 2017 only had Northam up 5, 48-43. And then he won by 9, 53-45, so.

I would be careful about making too many assumptions from 2017.  Polls in VA have mostly been accurate since then. Polls were also wrong in the opposite direction in 2013, the last time when McAuliffe was the Dem candidate and there was a Dem president.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2021, 09:40:42 AM »

Can’t wait for TMac to win by 4-5 then for all the news outlets to write about what an impressive victory that was.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2021, 09:42:55 AM »

Can’t wait for TMac to win by 4-5 then for all the news outlets to write about what an impressive victory that was.

So many political analysts and journalists are still living in 2012!  You see this also in the assumptions about redistricting.
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Politics Fan
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« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2021, 11:20:17 AM »

Virginia always tightens and I don't think the Dems have the energy on their side right now. But the dems always overperform their polls in VA as well in most races, so I suspect this is still likely/borderline safe TMAC.

The last Fox poll in 2017 only had Northam up 5, 48-43. And then he won by 9, 53-45, so.

I would be careful about making too many assumptions from 2017.  Polls in VA have mostly been accurate since then. Polls were also wrong in the opposite direction in 2013, the last time when McAuliffe was the Dem candidate and there was a Dem president.
I feel for as much as people discuss polls being wrong they many more times mostly get the final result correct. The people that seem to hype up the possibility the polls of being incorrect also seem to be the ones that are doing so out of wish casting for a more desirable result. 
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2021, 12:30:21 PM »

This makes no sense

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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2021, 12:32:47 PM »
« Edited: October 01, 2021, 12:41:59 PM by Mr.Phips »

This makes no sense



I doubt McAuliffe will only get 26% of the independent vote in the end.  Even Deeds got 33% among them in 2009.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2021, 05:45:05 PM »

Can’t wait for TMac to win by 4-5 then for all the news outlets to write about what an impressive victory that was.

You realize that "dems in disarray" headlines sell better, right? That's what we'd get from it.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2021, 07:01:21 PM »

Can’t wait for TMac to win by 4-5 then for all the news outlets to write about what an impressive victory that was.

You realize that "dems in disarray" headlines sell better, right? That's what we'd get from it.
That’s only pre-election. Post-election the media just says that whoever won, regardless of margin, is incredible and amazing and did everything right.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2021, 07:14:08 PM »

If it was a "tight race" it would be 44-44.

McAulife could literally be up by 7-8 and we'd still get "close race!!!" headlines.

I personally consider a margin 5 points or less to be close; any more than that, it's not. So calling 4 points a tight race isn't much of a stretch, though McAuliffe is obviously leading.

I personally have him winning at this junction by around 7 points, though that will increase later if/as McAuliffe's poll numbers improve.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #18 on: October 01, 2021, 07:19:30 PM »

Can’t wait for TMac to win by 4-5 then for all the news outlets to write about what an impressive victory that was.

You realize that "dems in disarray" headlines sell better, right? That's what we'd get from it.
That’s only pre-election. Post-election the media just says that whoever won, regardless of margin, is incredible and amazing and did everything right.

Yeah. The CA recall proves it. Newsom didn't do that well for a Democrat in California but everyone had set such low expectations that the reaction to the Democratic blowout in California would make someone clueless think that a Democrat had won in Texas or something.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2021, 08:10:05 PM »

Newsom didn't do that well for a Democrat in California

No received over 62% of the vote. The last time a Democrat won more than 62% in a California gubernatorial election was never.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2021, 10:12:57 PM »

A 4 point race is “tight” in the sense that one wrong move by the candidate ahead could make it 50-50.

This is a very flawed argument because it completely overlooks the fact that there is only a very limited number of persuadable voters. Someone who until this very point has not been receptive to Youngkin's (very smart and disciplined) messaging is unlikely to change their mind once McAuliffe makes "one wrong move."
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Person Man
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« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2021, 06:54:54 AM »

A 4 point race is “tight” in the sense that one wrong move by the candidate ahead could make it 50-50.

This is a very flawed argument because it completely overlooks the fact that there is only a very limited number of persuadable voters. Someone who until this very point has not been receptive to Youngkin's (very smart and disciplined) messaging is unlikely to change their mind once McAuliffe makes "one wrong move."

Would a better way of putting is that Youngkin needs to win 70% of undecided voters?
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Pollster
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« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2021, 08:52:06 AM »

If it was a "tight race" it would be 44-44.

McAulife could literally be up by 7-8 and we'd still get "close race!!!" headlines.

A 4 point race is “tight” in the sense that one wrong move by the candidate ahead could make it 50-50.


More accurately, a 4 point race is tight because the poll has a 3% margin of error (meaning the result could be anywhere from McAuliffe 51/41 to Youngkin 47/45).
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President Johnson
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« Reply #23 on: October 02, 2021, 02:17:31 PM »
« Edited: October 02, 2021, 02:39:50 PM by President Johnson »

I stick with my prediction of T-Mac +8 (53-45%).
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Person Man
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« Reply #24 on: October 03, 2021, 07:47:21 AM »

If it was a "tight race" it would be 44-44.

McAulife could literally be up by 7-8 and we'd still get "close race!!!" headlines.

A 4 point race is “tight” in the sense that one wrong move by the candidate ahead could make it 50-50.


More accurately, a 4 point race is tight because the poll has a 3% margin of error (meaning the result could be anywhere from McAuliffe 51/41 to Youngkin 47/45).

3% on both sides is 6%? If that’s the case, then being tied in a MoE situation of 1000 means any race less than 6 points.

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