VA - Global Strategy Group (D): McAuliffe +3

[VAR]

Link

Terry McAuliffe (D) 48%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 45%

Survey of 600 likely voters, September 16-20

[Skill and Chance]

It seems like a consistent pattern whenever a public poll comes out with a large-ish McAuliffe lead, Dem groups make sure to leak a McAuliffe +3 poll later that day.  Interesting. 

NVM this predates the Roanoke poll release, but it came the day after Monmouth.  Could still be a response to that one.

[Person Man]

So internals don’t necessarily inflate numbers?

[wbrocks67]

Given the issues we've had with LV models, pollsters should always release a RV topline as well.

[Person Man]

Given the issues we've had with LV models, pollsters should always release a RV topline as well.

And maybe some people just forget to vote and others weren’t planning to, got bored at work, and said “Heck it. Democracy!” I can buy that as much as LV screens.

[S019]

It seems that almost every pollster is agreeing with a McAuliffe mid single-digit lead, which seems around right.