NJ (Stockton): Murphy +9
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  NJ (Stockton): Murphy +9
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Author Topic: NJ (Stockton): Murphy +9  (Read 1011 times)
Roll Roons
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« on: September 29, 2021, 12:24:21 PM »
« edited: September 29, 2021, 12:29:01 PM by Roll Roons »

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/murphy-leads-ciattarelli-by-9-points-new-stockton-poll-ways/

Murphy 50, Ciattarelli 41. I think a single-digit race is very possible.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2021, 12:40:35 PM »

I’d take a single digit race
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2021, 02:53:35 PM »

This would be a 7-point R swing from 2020, basically identical to the 7-point swing in CA. VA ending up at D+3/4 would complete the pattern. Of course this will be lost on people (especially in the media) because Democrats won all of those races and Republicans will have "serious soul-searching" to do — if they can’t win in CA, NJ, and VA, how will they ever win in WI, MI, PA, NV, and AZ?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2021, 02:58:46 PM »

Also if this race ends up as a single-digit margin, I think it'll be in no small part because there's been relatively little national media attention compared to CA or VA.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2021, 07:43:33 PM »

I still think Murphy's floor is 12 points at the absolute minimum.

I don't think we should assume that undecideds are going to break evenly or favor Ciatarelli. That would be the only way this poll translates.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2021, 05:27:20 AM »

I still think Murphy's floor is 12 points at the absolute minimum.

I don't think we should assume that undecideds are going to break evenly or favor Ciatarelli. That would be the only way this poll translates.

And I don't trust pollsters LV models in 2021. They were absolutely terrible in CA.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2021, 06:54:51 AM »

I still think Murphy's floor is 12 points at the absolute minimum.

I don't think we should assume that undecideds are going to break evenly or favor Ciatarelli. That would be the only way this poll translates.

And I don't trust pollsters LV models in 2021. They were absolutely terrible in CA.

Yeah, we get it. Any poll with even a slightly decent result for the GOP must be junk, while akshually, DCCC polls are all totally accurate because... reasons.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2021, 05:47:16 PM »

I still think Murphy's floor is 12 points at the absolute minimum.

I don't think we should assume that undecideds are going to break evenly or favor Ciatarelli. That would be the only way this poll translates.

And I don't trust pollsters LV models in 2021. They were absolutely terrible in CA.

Yeah, we get it. Any poll with even a slightly decent result for the GOP must be junk, while akshually, DCCC polls are all totally accurate because... reasons.

I literally said nothing about DCCC polls so why don't you stop with the attitude? Thanks
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2021, 07:12:14 PM »

Murphy is winning by at least low double digits. Ciatarelli is not really campaigning.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2021, 05:16:05 AM »

Murphy is winning by at least low double digits. Ciatarelli is not really campaigning.

This is the thing too - Ciatarelli has been absent the entire campaign.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2021, 07:28:08 PM »

Murphy is winning by at least low double digits. Ciatarelli is not really campaigning.

This is the thing too - Ciatarelli has been absent the entire campaign.

I am confident that Murphy will win by the low teens, as is typical for a Democrat in an off-year statewide race, but I would disagree that Ciatarelli isn't campaigning. The race has really heated up this month. Every other Youtube video I watch is preceded by a Ciatarelli ad. I can even quote it verbatim: "Have you seen the ads? Phil Murphy is lying about me. I would too if I had his record..."
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2021, 11:43:34 AM »

Very realistic. Still expecting a final margin somewhere near 54-46.
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2021, 01:20:36 PM »

This is definitely more plausible (my guess is Murphy +10.)
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