Why did the WOW counties trend R between 1988-2012 while other suburbs moved left?
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  Why did the WOW counties trend R between 1988-2012 while other suburbs moved left?
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Author Topic: Why did the WOW counties trend R between 1988-2012 while other suburbs moved left?  (Read 489 times)
BrewCityLiberal
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« on: September 27, 2021, 04:13:03 PM »

I was looking at the election results and realized that WOW trended R between 1988 and 2012. In 1988, Bush I received 60.8% of the vote in Waukesha County. In 2004 and 2012, Romney and Bush both received 67% of the vote in Waukesha County. Washington and Ozaukee Counties also trended R during those years. Ozaukee County actually shifted leftward 2 points left between 2004-2012, but that was still a very insignificant D trend. Was it white flight or other factors that helped turn WOW into a Republican powerhouse? WOW did not start trending D until Trump became POTUS. Is the recent D trend in WOW indicative of the Trump effect or a long-term trend (i.e. changes in voting behavior that follow national trends of suburbs shifting D across America)?
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TDAS04
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2021, 04:23:21 PM »

This isn't the only reason, but Paul Ryan probably helped Mitt Romney a little bit there.
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2021, 05:21:47 PM »

Not all suburbs trended leftward, necessarily. The important change is from 1988 (or whatever election you want as late as 2012) to 2020, and in the 1988-2020 and 2012-2020 spans, the WOW counties trended leftward, I believe. WOW wasn't an anomaly in getting even redder from 1988 to 2012. It would have been had it somehow trended rightward from 1988 to 2020.
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Computer89
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« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2021, 07:19:25 PM »

Not all suburbs trended leftward, necessarily. The important change is from 1988 (or whatever election you want as late as 2012) to 2020, and in the 1988-2020 and 2012-2020 spans, the WOW counties trended leftward, I believe. WOW wasn't an anomaly in getting even redder from 1988 to 2012. It would have been had it somehow trended rightward from 1988 to 2020.


The suburbs that trended R from 1988-2012 were generally southern/sunbelt burbs though , while most of the Northern Suburbs trended hard D from 1988-2012 so WOW does stand out as an exception here
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BrewCityLiberal
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2021, 04:08:15 PM »

Not all suburbs trended leftward, necessarily. The important change is from 1988 (or whatever election you want as late as 2012) to 2020, and in the 1988-2020 and 2012-2020 spans, the WOW counties trended leftward, I believe. WOW wasn't an anomaly in getting even redder from 1988 to 2012. It would have been had it somehow trended rightward from 1988 to 2020.


The suburbs that trended R from 1988-2012 were generally southern/sunbelt burbs though , while most of the Northern Suburbs trended hard D from 1988-2012 so WOW does stand out as an exception here

Exactly my point.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2021, 10:30:24 AM »

Milwaukee had a bit of transformation during the 1990s and 2000s as the old manufacturing employers downsized or moved-out, and the insurance companies and healthcare administrators moved-in.  Probably changed the character of the WOW just a bit.
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