KS-Clarity Campaign Labs (D): Kelly +3

[Pollster]

Conducted for Emily's List

Kelly 47
Schmidt 44

Kelly approval is 53/41, Schmidt is 40/42.

Kelly winning 18% of self-ID Republicans.

Link

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah, no. She's not winning 18% of Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great KS Leans D

[TodayJunior]

This wouldn’t be the first time Kansas elected a Dem in an unfavorable midterm for Dems….see 2002.

[xavier110]

Yeah, no. She's not winning 18% of Republicans.

This is a state where that doesn’t seem too far fetched. There are actually a decent number of moderate Republicans in Kansas who are in constant battle with the conservatives. Maybe not 18 percent though.

Biden either won or came close to winning educated whites here, and I would assume Kelly would do even better. Kansas is one of the best educated states in the country — it’s up there with all the coastal states and CO/MN. Does Kelly lose by 10? Maybe, but I also wouldn’t completely count her out given the demographics of the state and its unique GOP history with Brownback et al.

[Xing]

Maybe if literally everything goes Kelly's way, this results would be possible, but I doubt she'll actually get 18% of Republicans. Lean R for now, definitely the most likely gubernatorial race to flip Republican in 2022.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Nah. At best this is tilt R.

[Calthrina950]

This wouldn’t be the first time Kansas elected a Dem in an unfavorable midterm for Dems….see 2002.

2002 wasn't particularly unfavorable for Democrats at the gubernatorial level. They gained not only Kansas, but Oklahoma, Arizona, New Mexico, Wyoming, Tennessee, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Maine that year.

[Boobs]

Incumbent Governors are voted out, not challengers voted in. When was the last time a governor with positive approvals was voted out? If Kelly is above water, there’s no reason to assume she’s DOA or even disfavored. That’s a big IF of course, but low-key governors like Kelly tend to greatly outpace partisanship even in difficult years. Only really unpopular governors lose reelection (Corbett, McCrory, Walker barely) and even then it’s not a sure thing (Brownback 2014).

[Roll Roons]

Incumbent Governors are voted out, not challengers voted out. When was the last time a governor with positive approvals was voted out? If Kelly is above water, there’s no reason to assume she’s DOA or even disfavored. That’s a big IF of course, but low-key governors like Kelly tend to greatly outpace partisanship even in difficult years. Only really unpopular governors lose reelection (Corbett, McCrory, Walker barely) and even then it’s not a sure thing (Brownback 2014).

Agreed. In gubernatorial races, the governor's approval and popularity do matter. And they matter a lot. Why did Bruce Rauner lose by double digits even as Larry Hogan won in a landslide? Illinois is certainly blue but Maryland is considerably bluer. The answer is that Hogan was popular and Rauner wasn't.

Will she have a tough race? Undoubtedly. But should she be counted out? Not at all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Incumbent Governors are voted out, not challengers voted out. When was the last time a governor with positive approvals was voted out? If Kelly is above water, there’s no reason to assume she’s DOA or even disfavored. That’s a big IF of course, but low-key governors like Kelly tend to greatly outpace partisanship even in difficult years. Only really unpopular governors lose reelection (Corbett, McCrory, Walker barely) and even then it’s not a sure thing (Brownback 2014).

Agreed. In gubernatorial races, the governor's approval and popularity do matter. And they matter a lot. Why did Bruce Rauner lose by double digits even as Larry Hogan won in a landslide? Illinois is certainly blue but Maryland is considerably bluer. The answer is that Hogan was popular and Rauner wasn't.

Will she have a tough race? Undoubtedly. But should she be counted out? Not at all.

IL has an Economy problem and ever Gov has promised a Chicago Casino to boost revenues and Rauner built more Casinos in the Suburbs instead of South side Chicago that's partly why he lost

Pritzker I heard wanted build one but not now in a Pandemic, I lived in Chicago, Kirk Dillard and Topinka wanted one but, the Suburbs been outbidding Chicago for Casinos and Rosemont took the last Casino


There was a 9th Casino wanted but its supposed to be in Chicago that never happened

[Schiff for Senate]

This wouldn’t be the first time Kansas elected a Dem in an unfavorable midterm for Dems….see 2002.

2002 wasn't particularly unfavorable for Democrats at the gubernatorial level. They gained not only Kansas, but Oklahoma, Arizona, New Mexico, Wyoming, Tennessee, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Maine that year.

If you just see the maps, 2002-GOV were the craziest, wildest and most random elections in a long time that anyone looking at today would freak out at...HI elected a GOP governor and WY elected a Democrat, for just two of dozens of examples. And a huge number of seats flipped, too.

[MT Treasurer]

Most polling on KS-SEN 2020 indicated that that race was highly competitive, and Bollier branded herself in virtually the same manner as Kelly. I know Republicans are far more hesitant than Democrats to run these types of campaigns for some reason, but this is a race any halfway competent Republican should win if they run a concentrated, disciplined 'negative' campaign which goes nuclear on the Democrat and actually stays on message. I’m skeptical that the bulk of the messaging used against Bollier wouldn’t work against Kelly, who (obviously) likewise has an extremely liberal record that is way to the left of the state and systematically disguised by a carefully cultivated Heitkamp-type image as a likable, detached elderly woman who is above the divisive partisanship of today and might as well be your grandmother. It’s not a race the GOP can take for granted and certainly one where some serious effort will need to be put in, but at the end of the day, I don’t see how it isn’t the most likely D->R gubernatorial flip.

I also maintain that Orman's strong showing hurt Kobach more than Kelly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Most polling on KS-SEN 2020 indicated that that race was highly competitive, and Bollier branded herself in virtually the same manner as Kelly. I know Republicans are far more hesitant than Democrats to run these types of campaigns for some reason, but this is a race any halfway competent Republican should win if they run a concentrated, disciplined 'negative' campaign which goes nuclear on the Democrat and actually stays on message. I’m skeptical that the bulk of the messaging used against Bollier wouldn’t work against Kelly, who (obviously) likewise has an extremely liberal record that is way to the left of the state and systematically disguised by a carefully cultivated Heitkamp-type image as a likable, detached elderly woman who is above the divisive partisanship of today and might as well be your grandmother. It’s not a race the GOP can take for granted and certainly one where some serious effort will need to be put in, but at the end of the day, I don’t see how it isn’t the most likely D->R gubernatorial flip.

I also maintain that Orman's strong showing hurt Kobach more than Kelly.

It's probably not the most relevant thing, to compare a federal and gubernatorial election, especially in Kansas of all places.

[MT Treasurer]

It's probably not the most relevant thing, to compare a federal and gubernatorial election, especially in Kansas of all places.

I disagree with this. First of all, there is absolutely no evidence that red state voters are more likely to elect Democratic governors than Democratic Senators. In fact, all of the recent D red state wins for Governor (LA, KS, KY) have been very close even in D wave environments. As you know, there are just as many red state Democratic Senators (Tester, Brown, Manchin, almost Kander and O'Rourke) as there are Democratic governors (JBE, Beshear, Kelly). In this particular state, recent Senate races (2014, 2020) have been fairly competitive as well, which they never would have been if Kansans prioritized Senate control.

Second, the kind of voter who distinguishes between federal and non-federal races and is aware of the national ramifications of their vote for a Senate candidate (i.e., people like you and me) was likely never a true swing voter to begin with. At the end of the day, voters don’t vote for abstract concepts like "Senate Budget Chairmanship" but for individuals, and outside groups usually don’t spend $100M reminding people that "this is actually a Senate race" but dismantling the particular candidate. The people who were considering Democrats like Bullock, Bayh, Bollier, Heitkamp, etc. but ended up rejecting them did not reject them because they were running for Senate but because they rejected them as individuals. It’s not so much "I can’t vote for Steve Bullock for Senate" as it is "I don’t trust Steve Bullock in the Senate." Hence also why Tester is still in the Senate and Bullock isn’t — if Senate control was this important to voters, Tester never would have made it in 2018. Similarly, WV voters want a Republican-controlled Senate but they still trust Joe Manchin because Republicans did an embarrassing job of deconstructing Manchin the politician.

The fact of the matter is that any competent Republican will make this (primarily) a race about Laura Kelly and not about their "bipartisan record as Attorney General" or whatever, just like Marshall made it a race about Barbara Bollier. Things like "bipartisan bills" are nice soundbites that make the voter feel good about their vote for an otherwise largely negative campaign but they don’t actually win you many votes. This is really one of those races where the GOP 'playbook' should be crystal-clear and only a very inept candidate would actually opt for a different strategy or allow themselves to be distracted from their focus on the incumbent.

[Hope For A New Era]

Lean D until further notice.

As other people have pointed out, it's very difficult to defeat an incumbent governor. It usually requires extremely low popularity. Matt Bevin was at like 35% approval and barely lost. Spectacular Rauner/Corbett-style losses are a rarity in gubernatorial races.

Regardless of who wins, KS-GOV will be a close race, and as Kelly has been consistently above water since taking office, all indications are that she currently has the advantage.

Personally, I think Nevada and Wisconsin are both more likely to flip than Kansas.