What’s the largest margin the GOP could win Texas and Florida in 2024?

[Cyrusman]

In a great year where the environment favors republicans, Biden/Harris have low approvals, and there are issues specific to Texas/Florida that angers voters there. What would you say would be the biggest margin the GOP could win Texas and Florida with?

[BigSerg]

Tx +8
FL +5

[Chips]

In best case: They could win TX by a low double-digit margin and FL by a rather high single-digit margin.

[Schiff for Senate]

In Texas by 7-8 points, probably the lower side.
In Florida by 4-5 points, maybe the higher side.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Texas R+16
Florida R+5

[THG]

Texas: R+15

Florida: R+10-11

Keep in mind that I am assuming that this hypothetical scenario is essentially a reverse 2008.

[THG]

Texas R+16
Florida R+5

Trump won Florida by almost 4 in a poor national environment for him. It could end up being a high single digit win for Republicans in a very solid national environment for them.

[Redban]

OP says in a great year, favorable to Republicans. I'm thinking a 2008-esque victory in favor of the GOP. In that case, Republicans would win Texas by 15-20% and Florida by 8-10%.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hmm assuming a narrow popular vote win in 2024 id say:


Texas: R+13
Florida: R+9

[Xing]

R+7 or so for both (maybe R+6 for Florida.) Double digits wins in Texas are a thing of the past for Republicans, even in a good year for them, and while they have room for growth in Florida, Democrats have a high enough ceiling to avoid anything worse than a six-point loss or so.

[TDAS04]

FL: R+7
TX: R+10