The map as of today
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April 25, 2024, 03:53:28 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
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Author Topic: The map as of today  (Read 2098 times)
Senator-elect Spark
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« on: September 25, 2021, 10:13:53 PM »


Former President Donald J. Trump (R) - 51%
President Joseph R. Biden Jr. - 47%
Other - 2%
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2021, 10:19:10 PM »
Probably this




Keep in mind it looked like Trump was going to win as late as early March 2020, it looked like Obama was going to lose at least as long as late 2011, and a Bush landslide would have been expected at the time in 2001 and then he only won by a single state.
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MR DARK BRANDON
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2021, 10:40:54 PM »
You ppl are high

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2021, 11:02:32 PM »
The replies to this should be good...
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2021, 11:06:39 PM »
Quote from: UBI man good on September 25, 2021, 10:40:54 PM
You ppl are high



WI isn't Lean R state
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MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2021, 02:28:17 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Kanye West on September 25, 2021, 11:06:39 PM
Quote from: UBI man good on September 25, 2021, 10:40:54 PM
You ppl are high



WI isn't Lean R state

It’s tilt as of now
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2021, 02:55:09 PM »
Pennsylvania is a virtual tie according to my count.
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2021, 11:53:23 PM »
And now, Trends are Real, or, what I think the election would be if the attitudes of September 2021 remain the same through November 2024:

Nevada goes to Biden and is contested by the Trump team, because it was only 86 votes in his favor. If Governor Heller and Secretary Marchant exist and don't "find 87 votes," then they're thrown out by the Republican House and Senate on January 6, 2025 after Trump threatens to support primaries against those who don't object to the Nevada results and vote him in. Let's say for the sake of irony, the Nevada election audit winds up being like Arizona and actually giving more votes to Biden.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2021, 12:18:52 AM »


This is Biden vs. Trump. If it were against a generic Republican then it'd turn out much different, but I think the polls are deceptively favoring Trump right now. When push comes to shove, those Biden voters aren't flipping to Trump.
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MarkD
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2021, 06:31:20 AM »
« Edited: September 28, 2021, 10:47:26 PM by MarkD »
I'm not particularly interested in what would be the result if the election were held today, because the actual election isn't going to occur until more than three years from today. And a lot of things can happen between now and then that could result in Biden winning by a bigger margin than last year.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2021, 09:23:47 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2021, 09:29:15 AM by Mr. Kanye West »
Quote from: DaleCooper on September 27, 2021, 12:18:52 AM


This is Biden vs. Trump. If it were against a generic Republican then it'd turn out much different, but I think the polls are deceptively favoring Trump right now. When push comes to shove, those Biden voters aren't flipping to Trump.

Biden is leading Trump by 11 pts and WI isnt


Here is my map and we can win NC, FL and NC we will win ME 2 due to ANGUS king up in 2024, we lost it in 2020 Collins over perform
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2021, 09:31:13 AM »
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2021, 09:35:39 AM »
Fetterman is winning in PA and Johnson is losing in WI
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2021, 09:46:59 AM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on September 27, 2021, 12:18:52 AM


This is Biden vs. Trump. If it were against a generic Republican then it'd turn out much different, but I think the polls are deceptively favoring Trump right now. When push comes to shove, those Biden voters aren't flipping to Trump.
No, they might stay home though. Elections have always been a turnout game
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Person Man
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2021, 10:33:20 AM »
Quote from: EastwoodS on September 27, 2021, 09:31:13 AM


I'd give Trump Nevada and will say Trump probably get between a plurality and a bare majority of the NPV.

I would say something similar to Obama between the ACA and the assassination of bin Laden. If the 2012 election happened in 2010 instead, I could see him with Hillary's map minus Virginia and NH.
He probably narrowly wins Nevada and Colorado (both where Dems struggled but overcame the polls), though. 216-322? We really had no idea yet who Obama would be against in 2012. Palin and even Trump were being considered.

At this point, I am expecting 2024 to be anywhere from a 35 state 4% NPV Republican mini-landslide to a 28/29 state Democratic 8% NPV win.
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SN2903
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« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2021, 11:30:53 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2021, 11:36:08 AM by SN2903 »
Quote from: UBI man good on September 25, 2021, 10:40:54 PM
You ppl are high


If the election were held today. Biden loses fairly easily. You are delusional. His approval is low 40s at most.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2021, 11:32:17 AM »
Lmao at the people giving Trump Minnesota and New Hampshire. In your dreams.

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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: September 27, 2021, 11:44:24 AM »
98% of the U.S. population: "Huh? There was an election today?"
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #18 on: September 27, 2021, 12:20:27 PM »
Quote from: EastwoodS on September 27, 2021, 09:46:59 AM
Quote from: DaleCooper on September 27, 2021, 12:18:52 AM


This is Biden vs. Trump. If it were against a generic Republican then it'd turn out much different, but I think the polls are deceptively favoring Trump right now. When push comes to shove, those Biden voters aren't flipping to Trump.
No, they might stay home though. Elections have always been a turnout game

That's why I emphasized the importance of Trump. I don't believe they would stay home if Trump is on the ballot.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: September 27, 2021, 10:29:33 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on September 27, 2021, 11:32:17 AM
Lmao at the people giving Trump Minnesota and New Hampshire. In your dreams.




WI isn't Lean R and you know it if DeSantis is on the ballot he would win GA
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Burke Bro
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« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2021, 02:39:28 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2021, 07:48:39 PM by Tortilla Soup »
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2021, 07:57:16 PM »
I really don't see how Trump beats Biden. He seems to be losing whatever sanity he had left and showing signs of dementia (oh the irony), not to mention he treats his body like crap.


With how polarized we are, I do not see the map changing much.
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Boobs
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« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2021, 08:35:39 PM »
The map as of today : How about you get a job or a girlfriend ? Stop worrying about nonexistent hypotheticals and just enjoy the world you live in  ?
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Independents for Nihilism
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« Reply #23 on: September 28, 2021, 08:36:47 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2021, 05:28:19 PM by The Human Centrist »
Dems are still favoured IMO. A stronger GOP candidate than Trump could come back a bit, but it'd be an uphill battle to actually win.



(60%=safe, 50%=likely, 40%=lean.)
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #24 on: September 28, 2021, 11:04:29 PM »

President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Fmr. President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO)
Businessman Andrew Yang (F-NY) / FF Atlas Dropout eric82oslo (F-SE) ✔
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