2024: Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis

[Schiff for Senate]

DeSantis would clearly win. He would definitely win back Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and would probably also flip Arizona, New Hampshire, and Nevada. DeSantis would have a fighting shot in Maine and Minnesota as well, and could potentially come within single digits in New Mexico. Georgia would be 50/50.

No offense but I seriously hope this is a meme 'prediction.'

[Calthrina950]

DeSantis would clearly win. He would definitely win back Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and would probably also flip Arizona, New Hampshire, and Nevada. DeSantis would have a fighting shot in Maine and Minnesota as well, and could potentially come within single digits in New Mexico. Georgia would be 50/50.

No offense but I seriously hope this is a meme 'prediction.'

No, it is not. DeSantis, as I've said before, is the kind of candidate who would turn out the Republican base while potentially winning over independent voters who may align with Republicans on the issues but were turned off by Trump.

[Kleine Scheiße]

nightmare mode election

[Schiff for Senate]

DeSantis would clearly win. He would definitely win back Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and would probably also flip Arizona, New Hampshire, and Nevada. DeSantis would have a fighting shot in Maine and Minnesota as well, and could potentially come within single digits in New Mexico. Georgia would be 50/50.

To be specific, I don't think everything you said was crazy.

I don't necessarily disagree with you at all on GA and also NM (if you mean high single digits).

But you can't definitively guarantee DeSantis WI, MI and PA more than three years before election day. And why should they flip at all? Trump was the ultimate white working class candidate and he barely flipped them (and they flipped back Democratic in 2020, albeit narrowly) in 2016. DeSantis can't both have the appeal Trump has in working class areas (crucial for a GOP win in WI, MI, PA) and have the appeal a non-Trump candidate has in suburbs (crucial for a flip in GA). I think he can do the latter. Few think he could do the former. Some think he can do neither. You think he can do both, which is impossible barring Joe Biden and Kamala Harris being very unpopular.

AZ and NV might flip, though calling them 'probably' flips is an exaggeration - AZ might flip, though there's no reason to favour either the Democrats or the Republicans there right now, and NV could flip, but it's definitely more likely that it doesn't.

NH is not flipping. It voted for Biden by seven or eight points. Perhaps in a terrible night it will, but saying it 'probably' will is, quite frankly, outrageous. Where is your evidence for this? This is less of predicting 2024 with DeSantis and more of predicting DeSantis' best case scenario in 2024.

ME and MN are self-explanatory, and I don't need to delve into details again, except that both are likely to safe Democratic (closer to likely) and will not flip at all because of DeSantis. To you credit, however, you said he will have a "fighting chance" in those states, which isn't too much of an exaggeration, depending on what you mean by that.

And now I must address your reply to my reply to your initial post:

No, it is not. DeSantis, as I've said before, is the kind of candidate who would turn out the Republican base while potentially winning over independent voters who may align with Republicans on the issues but were turned off by Trump.

There is a fundamental fault in your argument. DeSantis isn't the perfect candidate for all the voters the GOP needs to target. No one is. That being said, Trump is the best candidate for Trumpists, who comprise a majority of voters the GOP needs to win. These voters will support DeSantis, but quite obviously not nearly as enthusiastically or with as much turnout than they did with for Trump. You can't have a candidate who both has Trump's appeal (which, to be clear, only Trump has) and has both the non-Trump appeal Trump doesn't have. I think DeSantis can have the latter, but as to the former, again, not happening. It's like saying that Hillary Clinton in 2016 was a great candidate because she was able to win over Berniecrats and progressives while assuaging the fears of more moderate voters - if you notice, the latter occurred, and the former really didn't (many stayed home and therefore had lower turnout; many backed Bernie through some other way, and some even supported Donald Trump). The same logic applies to DeSantis. Unless perhaps DeSantis picks Trump as his running mate, I cannot see the base turning out nearly as much to support DeSantis.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ugh, worst possible matchup. Gotta go with Gav here.

[GregTheGreat657]

DeSantis would clearly win. He would definitely win back Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and would probably also flip Arizona, New Hampshire, and Nevada. DeSantis would have a fighting shot in Maine and Minnesota as well, and could potentially come within single digits in New Mexico. Georgia would be 50/50.

To be specific, I don't think everything you said was crazy.

I don't necessarily disagree with you at all on GA and also NM (if you mean high single digits).

But you can't definitively guarantee DeSantis WI, MI and PA more than three years before election day. And why should they flip at all? Trump was the ultimate white working class candidate and he barely flipped them (and they flipped back Democratic in 2020, albeit narrowly) in 2016. DeSantis can't both have the appeal Trump has in working class areas (crucial for a GOP win in WI, MI, PA) and have the appeal a non-Trump candidate has in suburbs (crucial for a flip in GA). I think he can do the latter. Few think he could do the former. Some think he can do neither. You think he can do both, which is impossible barring Joe Biden and Kamala Harris being very unpopular.

AZ and NV might flip, though calling them 'probably' flips is an exaggeration - AZ might flip, though there's no reason to favour either the Democrats or the Republicans there right now, and NV could flip, but it's definitely more likely that it doesn't.

NH is not flipping. It voted for Biden by seven or eight points. Perhaps in a terrible night it will, but saying it 'probably' will is, quite frankly, outrageous. Where is your evidence for this? This is less of predicting 2024 with DeSantis and more of predicting DeSantis' best case scenario in 2024.

ME and MN are self-explanatory, and I don't need to delve into details again, except that both are likely to safe Democratic (closer to likely) and will not flip at all because of DeSantis. To you credit, however, you said he will have a "fighting chance" in those states, which isn't too much of an exaggeration, depending on what you mean by that.

And now I must address your reply to my reply to your initial post:

No, it is not. DeSantis, as I've said before, is the kind of candidate who would turn out the Republican base while potentially winning over independent voters who may align with Republicans on the issues but were turned off by Trump.

There is a fundamental fault in your argument. DeSantis isn't the perfect candidate for all the voters the GOP needs to target. No one is. That being said, Trump is the best candidate for Trumpists, who comprise a majority of voters the GOP needs to win. These voters will support DeSantis, but quite obviously not nearly as enthusiastically or with as much turnout than they did with for Trump. You can't have a candidate who both has Trump's appeal (which, to be clear, only Trump has) and has both the non-Trump appeal Trump doesn't have. I think DeSantis can have the latter, but as to the former, again, not happening. It's like saying that Hillary Clinton in 2016 was a great candidate because she was able to win over Berniecrats and progressives while assuaging the fears of more moderate voters - if you notice, the latter occurred, and the former really didn't (many stayed home and therefore had lower turnout; many backed Bernie through some other way, and some even supported Donald Trump). The same logic applies to DeSantis. Unless perhaps DeSantis picks Trump as his running mate, I cannot see the base turning out nearly as much to support DeSantis.

Newsom is an awful candidate. Before you talk about the recall results, Elder was a very weak candidate for California. He violates his own orders and has a reputation for thinking he is better than his constituents. DeSantis would annihilate Newsom in a national election.

[Fuzzy Bear]

It would be a race between a guy with guts (DeSantis) and a dillitante (Newsome). 

[BigVic]

DeSantis would win easily

[GregTheGreat657]