THG's hot takes: 2021 Virginia Edition! (Subject to updates)

[THG]

WARNING: THG HOT TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.


- If there's something I've learnt the hard way from the recent California election, it is that college educated whites are not coming back to the GOP, particularly in blue states. In 2022 and in 2024 (with a non-Trump candidate) you may see some levels reversion in places like Texas, Arizona, and possibly even some minor reversion in Georgia, but you sure as hell aren't seeing any kind of major reversion with these voters in Northern Virginia or California.

- The reason why the recall so far appears to have basically been a repeat of similar results to previous gubernatorial elections in CA was due to the aforementioned demographic basically not budging whatsoever and actually trending left if anything. While non-white voters evidently moved a fair bit to the right, UMC whites did not, which was primarily why I got the recall margins so wrong- I assumed that whites as a whole would actually vote to recall Newsom and that college whites would move a fair bit to the right, neither of which ever materialized at all.

- Like in California, Virginia's polls understate Democratic support due to the high percentage of college educated whites in the state. You can look at how Northam lead by only a few points in 2017 only to actually win by 9, or how Newsom lead by 10-15 only to win by 2018 margins. A similar dynamic might be at play now when polls allegedly show the race as a tossup.

- Basically, if your white population is heavily college educated, it overestimates Republicans such as in Colorado, Virginia, or California.

-If your white population is majority not college educated and you have a sizable Hispanic population, it underestimates Republicans, as we constantly see in Florida (and will continue to see, based on some of these laughable 2022 polls), or Texas, Nevada (sometimes), or the entire Midwest/Rustbelt (though they don't have a large minority population, they obviously have a ton of non-college whites).

- Essentially, as of late September in 2021, I do not completely buy the polls showing the race being a pure tossup, and I expect T-Mac to win by 2-6. I don't expect this race to be nationalized like California, as even if Youngkin isn't running a perfect campaign, he isn't running a Larry Elder-esque campaign either. I also have to note that T-Mac is running one of the most laughable and inept campaigns I've ever seen, but I can’t say for sure that any of these factors will truly make the race razor thin.

OCT UPDATE: As of early October, 2021, I still mostly stand by these predictions but even I believe that there is potential for the race to be closer than I expected. However, even if Democrats are not energized so far, how energized shall they be in November? Will Youngkin turn out enough Republicans? Will T-Mac energize his own base? Will Youngkin energize the opposition? Who will win indies?

In my view, these questions will decide this race and the margins.

UPDATE 2.0: This race is lean D, possibly tilt D, but I have T-Mac winning by 1-3 right now.


UPDATE 3.0: As of October 28, 2021, we may have a tossup race on our hands here. This is hardly a total guarantee that Youngkin wins, however I officially predict a narrow Youngkin win now.

[THG]

Inb4 McAwful wins by 2017 margins and everyone bumps this to mock me again /s

But yeah, I think polls underestimate Democrats in states like California and Virginia for the same reason they underestimate Republicans in the rust belt. However, things can absolutely change and Youngkin could win if the momentum shifts.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Inb4 McAwful wins by 2017 margins and everyone bumps this to mock me again /s

But yeah, I think polls underestimate Democrats in states like California and Virginia for the same reason they underestimate Republicans in the rust belt.

Previously it had more to do with minorities than with college educated whites, but a similar version of this dates back to 2008 and certainly back to 2010. Republicans under poll with non-college whites and then over perform on election day and this happened in most every cycle since except 2012 (where Romney's problems with this group neutered the effect, leaving the polling rather accurate). While at the same time Republicans would often over poll, especially in Nevada only to lose on election day as the poll shy Latinos turned out to vote. This was a factor in Reid's 2010 victory and also nearly toppled Heller in 2012.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

WARNING: THG HOT TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.


- If there's something I've learnt the hard way from the recent California election, it is that college educated whites are not coming back to the GOP, particularly in blue states. In 2022 and in 2024 (with a non-Trump candidate) you may see some levels reversion in places like Texas, Arizona, and possibly even some minor reversion in Georgia, but you sure as hell aren't seeing any kind of major reversion with these voters in Northern Virginia or California.

Sunbelt suburbs are less likely to revert back for a variety of reasons I have been discussing for years.

1. Demographic change not just in terms of minorities moving in but also in terms of generational change, employment changes and the like, and internal migration. Few people are moving to the suburbs of Cincinnati or St. Louis, but a lot are moving to the suburbs of Dallas, Phoenix and Atlanta.

2. The Climate issue is more likely to be salient in a sunbelt suburb than elsewhere because of heat, hurricanes and drought

3. The College debt issue is more apt to affect sunbelt suburbs where people are more globally oriented, tech employed or the like

4. The Republican Parties in the sunbelt be in the deep minority of Californian Republicans or the Southern Republican Parties, or Arizona with its long history of nationalist tinged politics, are basically going to function as the Captain Bartlett (from the Britannic) driving the nose of the ship underwater in a desperate beaching attempt expediting the inevitable demographic tide that is over taking them.

I talked about this in relation to Mississippi at some point flipping or getting close to it ten years from now and the likely response being one of the state party decrying it as fraud, trying to restrict voting etc and essentially nuking themselves and making the brand radioactive in the state similar to what CA Republicans did in the 1990s. These posts were made before 2020 and thus before the situation in GA and AZ, but it is clearly in play there right now.

- The reason why the recall so far appears to have basically been a repeat of similar results to previous gubernatorial elections in CA was due to the aforementioned demographic basically not budging whatsoever and actually trending left if anything. While non-white voters evidently moved a fair bit to the right, UMC whites did not, which was primarily why I got the recall margins so wrong- I assumed that whites as a whole would actually vote to recall Newsom and that college whites would move a fair bit to the right, neither of which ever materialized at all.

UMC in CA will not move back Republican to anything that remotely resembles Trumpism certainly in style, but also in policy. At minimum, a Republican would have to be pro-choice, moderate on immigration, climate conscious, having something tangible on health care and supportive of education, basically like a Hogan or a Baker type. They do have some hope for that with the top two system but right now everything is too hyper nationalized for that. 2026 or 2030 once Trump is gone or dead, and especially if we are in term two or three of Democrats and Arnold's time is far enough in the rear view mirror that it isn't a factor either. Then a Hogan type can break through and win CA Governor.

- Like in California, Virginia's polls understate Democratic support due to the high percentage of college educated whites in the state. You can look at how Northam lead by only a few points in 2017 only to actually win by 9, or how Newsom lead by 10-15 only to win by 2018 margins. A similar dynamic might be at play now when polls allegedly show the race as a tossup.

Its unusual for College educated whites to under poll but that might be the new thing that we are living in now.

- Basically, if your white population is heavily college educated, it overestimates Republicans such as in Colorado, Virginia, or California.

Historically the sunbelt underpolling for Democrats was driven by Hispanics and minorites. Even with these trends, minority voters as a group are heavily Democratic and thus I would imagine is still a factor here.

-If your white population is majority not college educated and you have a sizable Hispanic population, it underestimates Republicans, as we constantly see in Florida (and will continue to see, based on some of these laughable 2022 polls), or Texas, Nevada (sometimes), or the entire Midwest/Rustbelt (though they don't have a large minority population, they obviously have a ton of non-college whites).

Nevada can cut both ways on this score though maybe that is shifting the other direction now.

- Essentially, I do not buy the polls showing the race being close, and I expect T-Mac to win by 3-6. I don't expect this race to be nationalized like California, as even if Youngkin isn't running a perfect campaign, he isn't running a Larry Elder-esque campaign either. I also have to note that T-Mac is running one of the most laughable and inept campaigns I've ever seen, but I doubt any of these factors will truly make the race razor thin.

Yea I don't see NOVA or Denver burbs moving Republican. They flipped before Trump (mostly in 2008) and got more Democratic in reaction to him and the factors described above are at work in those states.


Where I see potential for Republican rebound in the suburbs is the places where local Republicans have already been outperforming Trump in such areas. Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, possibly also WI, MI and PA. There were trace amounts of this in Illinois as well but nothing that will make any kind of difference in state so Democratic.

[THG]

WARNING: THG HOT TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.


- If there's something I've learnt the hard way from the recent California election, it is that college educated whites are not coming back to the GOP, particularly in blue states. In 2022 and in 2024 (with a non-Trump candidate) you may see some levels reversion in places like Texas, Arizona, and possibly even some minor reversion in Georgia, but you sure as hell aren't seeing any kind of major reversion with these voters in Northern Virginia or California.

Sunbelt suburbs are less likely to revert back for a variety of reasons I have been discussing for years.

1. Demographic change not just in terms of minorities moving in but also in terms of generational change, employment changes and the like, and internal migration. Few people are moving to the suburbs of Cincinnati or St. Louis, but a lot are moving to the suburbs of Dallas, Phoenix and Atlanta.

2. The Climate issue is more likely to be salient in a sunbelt suburb than elsewhere because of heat, hurricanes and drought

3. The College debt issue is more apt to affect sunbelt suburbs where people are more globally oriented, tech employed or the like

4. The Republican Parties in the sunbelt be in the deep minority of Californian Republicans or the Southern Republican Parties, or Arizona with its long history of nationalist tinged politics, are basically going to function as the Captain Bartlett (from the Britannic) driving the nose of the ship underwater in a desperate beaching attempt expediting the inevitable demographic tide that is over taking them.

I talked about this in relation to Mississippi at some point flipping or getting close to it ten years from now and the likely response being one of the state party decrying it as fraud, trying to restrict voting etc and essentially nuking themselves and making the brand radioactive in the state similar to what CA Republicans did in the 1990s. These posts were made before 2020 and thus before the situation in GA and AZ, but it is clearly in play there right now.

- The reason why the recall so far appears to have basically been a repeat of similar results to previous gubernatorial elections in CA was due to the aforementioned demographic basically not budging whatsoever and actually trending left if anything. While non-white voters evidently moved a fair bit to the right, UMC whites did not, which was primarily why I got the recall margins so wrong- I assumed that whites as a whole would actually vote to recall Newsom and that college whites would move a fair bit to the right, neither of which ever materialized at all.

UMC in CA will not move back Republican to anything that remotely resembles Trumpism certainly in style, but also in policy. At minimum, a Republican would have to be pro-choice, moderate on immigration, climate conscious, having something tangible on health care and supportive of education, basically like a Hogan or a Baker type. They do have some hope for that with the top two system but right now everything is too hyper nationalized for that. 2026 or 2030 once Trump is gone or dead, and especially if we are in term two or three of Democrats and Arnold's time is far enough in the rear view mirror that it isn't a factor either. Then a Hogan type can break through and win CA Governor.

- Like in California, Virginia's polls understate Democratic support due to the high percentage of college educated whites in the state. You can look at how Northam lead by only a few points in 2017 only to actually win by 9, or how Newsom lead by 10-15 only to win by 2018 margins. A similar dynamic might be at play now when polls allegedly show the race as a tossup.

Its unusual for College educated whites to under poll but that might be the new thing that we are living in now.

- Basically, if your white population is heavily college educated, it overestimates Republicans such as in Colorado, Virginia, or California.

Historically the sunbelt underpolling for Democrats was driven by Hispanics and minorites. Even with these trends, minority voters as a group are heavily Democratic and thus I would imagine is still a factor here.

-If your white population is majority not college educated and you have a sizable Hispanic population, it underestimates Republicans, as we constantly see in Florida (and will continue to see, based on some of these laughable 2022 polls), or Texas, Nevada (sometimes), or the entire Midwest/Rustbelt (though they don't have a large minority population, they obviously have a ton of non-college whites).

Nevada can cut both ways on this score though maybe that is shifting the other direction now.

- Essentially, I do not buy the polls showing the race being close, and I expect T-Mac to win by 3-6. I don't expect this race to be nationalized like California, as even if Youngkin isn't running a perfect campaign, he isn't running a Larry Elder-esque campaign either. I also have to note that T-Mac is running one of the most laughable and inept campaigns I've ever seen, but I doubt any of these factors will truly make the race razor thin.

Yea I don't see NOVA or Denver burbs moving Republican. They flipped before Trump (mostly in 2008) and got more Democratic in reaction to him and the factors described above are at work in those states.


Where I see potential for Republican rebound in the suburbs is the places where local Republicans have already been outperforming Trump in such areas. Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, possibly also WI, MI and PA. There were trace amounts of this in Illinois as well but nothing that will make any kind of difference in state so Democratic.

The GOP is actually improving with minorities. But they’ve really declined with college whites recently- something pollsters also haven’t taken into account for.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

WARNING: THG HOT TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.


- If there's something I've learnt the hard way from the recent California election, it is that college educated whites are not coming back to the GOP, particularly in blue states. In 2022 and in 2024 (with a non-Trump candidate) you may see some levels reversion in places like Texas, Arizona, and possibly even some minor reversion in Georgia, but you sure as hell aren't seeing any kind of major reversion with these voters in Northern Virginia or California.

Sunbelt suburbs are less likely to revert back for a variety of reasons I have been discussing for years.

1. Demographic change not just in terms of minorities moving in but also in terms of generational change, employment changes and the like, and internal migration. Few people are moving to the suburbs of Cincinnati or St. Louis, but a lot are moving to the suburbs of Dallas, Phoenix and Atlanta.

2. The Climate issue is more likely to be salient in a sunbelt suburb than elsewhere because of heat, hurricanes and drought

3. The College debt issue is more apt to affect sunbelt suburbs where people are more globally oriented, tech employed or the like

4. The Republican Parties in the sunbelt be in the deep minority of Californian Republicans or the Southern Republican Parties, or Arizona with its long history of nationalist tinged politics, are basically going to function as the Captain Bartlett (from the Britannic) driving the nose of the ship underwater in a desperate beaching attempt expediting the inevitable demographic tide that is over taking them.

I talked about this in relation to Mississippi at some point flipping or getting close to it ten years from now and the likely response being one of the state party decrying it as fraud, trying to restrict voting etc and essentially nuking themselves and making the brand radioactive in the state similar to what CA Republicans did in the 1990s. These posts were made before 2020 and thus before the situation in GA and AZ, but it is clearly in play there right now.

- The reason why the recall so far appears to have basically been a repeat of similar results to previous gubernatorial elections in CA was due to the aforementioned demographic basically not budging whatsoever and actually trending left if anything. While non-white voters evidently moved a fair bit to the right, UMC whites did not, which was primarily why I got the recall margins so wrong- I assumed that whites as a whole would actually vote to recall Newsom and that college whites would move a fair bit to the right, neither of which ever materialized at all.

UMC in CA will not move back Republican to anything that remotely resembles Trumpism certainly in style, but also in policy. At minimum, a Republican would have to be pro-choice, moderate on immigration, climate conscious, having something tangible on health care and supportive of education, basically like a Hogan or a Baker type. They do have some hope for that with the top two system but right now everything is too hyper nationalized for that. 2026 or 2030 once Trump is gone or dead, and especially if we are in term two or three of Democrats and Arnold's time is far enough in the rear view mirror that it isn't a factor either. Then a Hogan type can break through and win CA Governor.

- Like in California, Virginia's polls understate Democratic support due to the high percentage of college educated whites in the state. You can look at how Northam lead by only a few points in 2017 only to actually win by 9, or how Newsom lead by 10-15 only to win by 2018 margins. A similar dynamic might be at play now when polls allegedly show the race as a tossup.

Its unusual for College educated whites to under poll but that might be the new thing that we are living in now.

- Basically, if your white population is heavily college educated, it overestimates Republicans such as in Colorado, Virginia, or California.

Historically the sunbelt underpolling for Democrats was driven by Hispanics and minorites. Even with these trends, minority voters as a group are heavily Democratic and thus I would imagine is still a factor here.

-If your white population is majority not college educated and you have a sizable Hispanic population, it underestimates Republicans, as we constantly see in Florida (and will continue to see, based on some of these laughable 2022 polls), or Texas, Nevada (sometimes), or the entire Midwest/Rustbelt (though they don't have a large minority population, they obviously have a ton of non-college whites).

Nevada can cut both ways on this score though maybe that is shifting the other direction now.

- Essentially, I do not buy the polls showing the race being close, and I expect T-Mac to win by 3-6. I don't expect this race to be nationalized like California, as even if Youngkin isn't running a perfect campaign, he isn't running a Larry Elder-esque campaign either. I also have to note that T-Mac is running one of the most laughable and inept campaigns I've ever seen, but I doubt any of these factors will truly make the race razor thin.

Yea I don't see NOVA or Denver burbs moving Republican. They flipped before Trump (mostly in 2008) and got more Democratic in reaction to him and the factors described above are at work in those states.


Where I see potential for Republican rebound in the suburbs is the places where local Republicans have already been outperforming Trump in such areas. Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, possibly also WI, MI and PA. There were trace amounts of this in Illinois as well but nothing that will make any kind of difference in state so Democratic.

The GOP is actually improving with minorities. But they’ve really declined with college whites recently- something pollsters also haven’t taken into account for.

The GOP has improved with minorities yes, but not enough to flip them obviously. I think on aggregate we are talking mid 70s D overall and certainly still in the mid to high 60s D for Hispanics overall. When you get into the types of voters that would have caused the polling issues in North Las Vegas, have the GOP really gained among that group? I am not sure as it seems the Hispanic gains were mostly with multi-century Spanish Americans in CO/NM, Cubans in Miami, Tejanos in Texas and select pockets of groups in Southern California.

Is that enough to counteract the Republican over poll? Likewise historically speaking, moves among college whites often were the most likely to be picked up in polls. These are types of people who have time to answer a poll, while many non-college whites would slam the phone down and many Latinos would similarly not respond or face a language barrier.

[THG]

WARNING: THG HOT TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.


- If there's something I've learnt the hard way from the recent California election, it is that college educated whites are not coming back to the GOP, particularly in blue states. In 2022 and in 2024 (with a non-Trump candidate) you may see some levels reversion in places like Texas, Arizona, and possibly even some minor reversion in Georgia, but you sure as hell aren't seeing any kind of major reversion with these voters in Northern Virginia or California.

Sunbelt suburbs are less likely to revert back for a variety of reasons I have been discussing for years.

1. Demographic change not just in terms of minorities moving in but also in terms of generational change, employment changes and the like, and internal migration. Few people are moving to the suburbs of Cincinnati or St. Louis, but a lot are moving to the suburbs of Dallas, Phoenix and Atlanta.

2. The Climate issue is more likely to be salient in a sunbelt suburb than elsewhere because of heat, hurricanes and drought

3. The College debt issue is more apt to affect sunbelt suburbs where people are more globally oriented, tech employed or the like

4. The Republican Parties in the sunbelt be in the deep minority of Californian Republicans or the Southern Republican Parties, or Arizona with its long history of nationalist tinged politics, are basically going to function as the Captain Bartlett (from the Britannic) driving the nose of the ship underwater in a desperate beaching attempt expediting the inevitable demographic tide that is over taking them.

I talked about this in relation to Mississippi at some point flipping or getting close to it ten years from now and the likely response being one of the state party decrying it as fraud, trying to restrict voting etc and essentially nuking themselves and making the brand radioactive in the state similar to what CA Republicans did in the 1990s. These posts were made before 2020 and thus before the situation in GA and AZ, but it is clearly in play there right now.

- The reason why the recall so far appears to have basically been a repeat of similar results to previous gubernatorial elections in CA was due to the aforementioned demographic basically not budging whatsoever and actually trending left if anything. While non-white voters evidently moved a fair bit to the right, UMC whites did not, which was primarily why I got the recall margins so wrong- I assumed that whites as a whole would actually vote to recall Newsom and that college whites would move a fair bit to the right, neither of which ever materialized at all.

UMC in CA will not move back Republican to anything that remotely resembles Trumpism certainly in style, but also in policy. At minimum, a Republican would have to be pro-choice, moderate on immigration, climate conscious, having something tangible on health care and supportive of education, basically like a Hogan or a Baker type. They do have some hope for that with the top two system but right now everything is too hyper nationalized for that. 2026 or 2030 once Trump is gone or dead, and especially if we are in term two or three of Democrats and Arnold's time is far enough in the rear view mirror that it isn't a factor either. Then a Hogan type can break through and win CA Governor.

- Like in California, Virginia's polls understate Democratic support due to the high percentage of college educated whites in the state. You can look at how Northam lead by only a few points in 2017 only to actually win by 9, or how Newsom lead by 10-15 only to win by 2018 margins. A similar dynamic might be at play now when polls allegedly show the race as a tossup.

Its unusual for College educated whites to under poll but that might be the new thing that we are living in now.

- Basically, if your white population is heavily college educated, it overestimates Republicans such as in Colorado, Virginia, or California.

Historically the sunbelt underpolling for Democrats was driven by Hispanics and minorites. Even with these trends, minority voters as a group are heavily Democratic and thus I would imagine is still a factor here.

-If your white population is majority not college educated and you have a sizable Hispanic population, it underestimates Republicans, as we constantly see in Florida (and will continue to see, based on some of these laughable 2022 polls), or Texas, Nevada (sometimes), or the entire Midwest/Rustbelt (though they don't have a large minority population, they obviously have a ton of non-college whites).

Nevada can cut both ways on this score though maybe that is shifting the other direction now.

- Essentially, I do not buy the polls showing the race being close, and I expect T-Mac to win by 3-6. I don't expect this race to be nationalized like California, as even if Youngkin isn't running a perfect campaign, he isn't running a Larry Elder-esque campaign either. I also have to note that T-Mac is running one of the most laughable and inept campaigns I've ever seen, but I doubt any of these factors will truly make the race razor thin.

Yea I don't see NOVA or Denver burbs moving Republican. They flipped before Trump (mostly in 2008) and got more Democratic in reaction to him and the factors described above are at work in those states.


Where I see potential for Republican rebound in the suburbs is the places where local Republicans have already been outperforming Trump in such areas. Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, possibly also WI, MI and PA. There were trace amounts of this in Illinois as well but nothing that will make any kind of difference in state so Democratic.

The GOP is actually improving with minorities. But they’ve really declined with college whites recently- something pollsters also haven’t taken into account for.

The GOP has improved with minorities yes, but not enough to flip them obviously. I think on aggregate we are talking mid 70s D overall and certainly still in the mid to high 60s D for Hispanics overall. When you get into the types of voters that would have caused the polling issues in North Las Vegas, have the GOP really gained among that group? I am not sure as it seems the Hispanic gains were mostly with multi-century Spanish Americans in CO/NM, Cubans in Miami, Tejanos in Texas and select pockets of groups in Southern California.

Is that enough to counteract the Republican over poll? Likewise historically speaking, moves among college whites often were the most likely to be picked up in polls. These are types of people who have time to answer a poll, while many non-college whites would slam the phone down and many Latinos would similarly not respond or face a language barrier.

Well Biden actually got 58-59% of Hispanics according to Pew in ‘20, and even in ultra liberal California, county data would indicate to me that Newsom got 58-62% of Hispanics, with him mostly staying afloat with coastal Hispanics but underperforming big time with the heavily Hispanics parts of the interior in California (especially the Central Valley). So there’s definitely a shift.

The only question is- will the GOP properly exploit it? It certainly seems like Democrats are trying their hardest to give Black and Hispanic voters to Republicans, but I don’t know if the GOP realizes this yet.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Time to update my signature just in case.

[Burke Bro]

This is a completely reasonable take. College educated white voters (and college educated voters in general) are very reliable voters (as evidenced by their high turnout numbers) and how they vote tends to be more predictable than non-college educated voters. That’s why the polls in states like mine with a high percentage of college educated voters tend to be spot-on or slightly overestimate Republicans. And why polls in mostly non-college educated states tend to underestimate Republicans.

What this means for 2022, I’m not entirely sure. But the picture is becoming clearer with each passing day. Maybe we’ll see democrats get massacred in these high-non college educated states in the Midwest + Nevada but miraculously hold on in states like Georgia. It would make for a really interesting dynamic, where republicans have less room to gain in the Hoise  due to a majority of these competitive congressional districts being highly college educated, but making bigger than expected  gains in the senate and in gubernatorial races.

[It’s so Joever]

WARNING: THG HOT TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.


- If there's something I've learnt the hard way from the recent California election, it is that college educated whites are not coming back to the GOP, particularly in blue states. In 2022 and in 2024 (with a non-Trump candidate) you may see some levels reversion in places like Texas, Arizona, and possibly even some minor reversion in Georgia, but you sure as hell aren't seeing any kind of major reversion with these voters in Northern Virginia or California.

Sunbelt suburbs are less likely to revert back for a variety of reasons I have been discussing for years.

1. Demographic change not just in terms of minorities moving in but also in terms of generational change, employment changes and the like, and internal migration. Few people are moving to the suburbs of Cincinnati or St. Louis, but a lot are moving to the suburbs of Dallas, Phoenix and Atlanta.

2. The Climate issue is more likely to be salient in a sunbelt suburb than elsewhere because of heat, hurricanes and drought

3. The College debt issue is more apt to affect sunbelt suburbs where people are more globally oriented, tech employed or the like

4. The Republican Parties in the sunbelt be in the deep minority of Californian Republicans or the Southern Republican Parties, or Arizona with its long history of nationalist tinged politics, are basically going to function as the Captain Bartlett (from the Britannic) driving the nose of the ship underwater in a desperate beaching attempt expediting the inevitable demographic tide that is over taking them.

I talked about this in relation to Mississippi at some point flipping or getting close to it ten years from now and the likely response being one of the state party decrying it as fraud, trying to restrict voting etc and essentially nuking themselves and making the brand radioactive in the state similar to what CA Republicans did in the 1990s. These posts were made before 2020 and thus before the situation in GA and AZ, but it is clearly in play there right now.

- The reason why the recall so far appears to have basically been a repeat of similar results to previous gubernatorial elections in CA was due to the aforementioned demographic basically not budging whatsoever and actually trending left if anything. While non-white voters evidently moved a fair bit to the right, UMC whites did not, which was primarily why I got the recall margins so wrong- I assumed that whites as a whole would actually vote to recall Newsom and that college whites would move a fair bit to the right, neither of which ever materialized at all.

UMC in CA will not move back Republican to anything that remotely resembles Trumpism certainly in style, but also in policy. At minimum, a Republican would have to be pro-choice, moderate on immigration, climate conscious, having something tangible on health care and supportive of education, basically like a Hogan or a Baker type. They do have some hope for that with the top two system but right now everything is too hyper nationalized for that. 2026 or 2030 once Trump is gone or dead, and especially if we are in term two or three of Democrats and Arnold's time is far enough in the rear view mirror that it isn't a factor either. Then a Hogan type can break through and win CA Governor.

- Like in California, Virginia's polls understate Democratic support due to the high percentage of college educated whites in the state. You can look at how Northam lead by only a few points in 2017 only to actually win by 9, or how Newsom lead by 10-15 only to win by 2018 margins. A similar dynamic might be at play now when polls allegedly show the race as a tossup.

Its unusual for College educated whites to under poll but that might be the new thing that we are living in now.

- Basically, if your white population is heavily college educated, it overestimates Republicans such as in Colorado, Virginia, or California.

Historically the sunbelt underpolling for Democrats was driven by Hispanics and minorites. Even with these trends, minority voters as a group are heavily Democratic and thus I would imagine is still a factor here.

-If your white population is majority not college educated and you have a sizable Hispanic population, it underestimates Republicans, as we constantly see in Florida (and will continue to see, based on some of these laughable 2022 polls), or Texas, Nevada (sometimes), or the entire Midwest/Rustbelt (though they don't have a large minority population, they obviously have a ton of non-college whites).

Nevada can cut both ways on this score though maybe that is shifting the other direction now.

- Essentially, I do not buy the polls showing the race being close, and I expect T-Mac to win by 3-6. I don't expect this race to be nationalized like California, as even if Youngkin isn't running a perfect campaign, he isn't running a Larry Elder-esque campaign either. I also have to note that T-Mac is running one of the most laughable and inept campaigns I've ever seen, but I doubt any of these factors will truly make the race razor thin.

Yea I don't see NOVA or Denver burbs moving Republican. They flipped before Trump (mostly in 2008) and got more Democratic in reaction to him and the factors described above are at work in those states.


Where I see potential for Republican rebound in the suburbs is the places where local Republicans have already been outperforming Trump in such areas. Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, possibly also WI, MI and PA. There were trace amounts of this in Illinois as well but nothing that will make any kind of difference in state so Democratic.

The GOP is actually improving with minorities. But they’ve really declined with college whites recently- something pollsters also haven’t taken into account for.

Wow, a THG post that actually is correct? I’m shocked.
And yes minorities are shifting R. This is why I expect cities to slowly shift R like in 2020 even as the suburbs push left.

[THG]

This is a completely reasonable take. College educated white voters (and college educated voters in general) are very reliable voters (as evidenced by their high turnout numbers) and how they vote tends to be more predictable than non-college educated voters. That’s why the polls in states like mine with a high percentage of college educated voters tend to be spot-on or slightly overestimate Republicans. And why polls in mostly non-college educated states tend to underestimate Republicans.

What this means for 2022, I’m not entirely sure. But the picture is becoming clearer with each passing day. Maybe we’ll see democrats get massacred in these high-non college educated states in the Midwest + Nevada but miraculously hold on in states like Georgia. It would make for a really interesting dynamic, where republicans have less room to gain in the Hoise  due to a majority of these competitive congressional districts being highly college educated, but making bigger than expected  gains in the senate and in gubernatorial races.

College educated white voters in places like Arizona and Texas are vastly different from those in Northern Virginia or California, so I wouldn’t look overtly into this. You may be right about Georgia however.

[THG]

I wanted to update this thread by pointing out that early voting stats indicate rather low turnout so far.

I wonder what this indicates? I am still rather cautious on Youngkin’s chances of potentially winning at the end of the day, but there is a potential for this race to be slightly closer than I initially expected.

However, even if Democrats are not energized so far, how energized shall they be in November? Will Youngkin turn out enough Republicans? Will T-Mac energize his own base? Will Youngkin energize the opposition? Who will win indies?

In my view, these questions will decide this race and the margins.


Keep in mind that I will change my predictions accordingly until the day before the election.

[MT Treasurer]

Don’t read anything into early voting stats, please. Everyone knows that Republicans are more likely to vote on election day and Democrats are more likely to vote early — even in all-mail voting states like CA, this pattern is very evident (ballots dropped off late favored YES to a much greater extent than those reported early).

Overall, lower turnout would benefit McAuliffe given that the D base tends to be more reliable in off-years, but I don’t think turnout will be particularly low in VA at the end of the day.

[THG]

Turnout in NOVA, particularly Fairfax County, has been fairly awful so far. I still won’t claim that Youngkin wins, but I can’t spin this as brilliant news for T-Mac.

However, I will say that this is extremely different from what happened in the California Recall or New Mexico’s 1st District.

[Skill and Chance]

Turnout in NOVA, particularly Fairfax County, has been fairly awful so far. I still won’t claim that Youngkin wins, but I can’t spin this as brilliant news for T-Mac.

However, I will say that this is extremely different from what happened in the California Recall or New Mexico’s 1st District.

I would be careful with this.  When VA was excuse-only, one of the excuses involved working in a different jurisdiction than you live in.  EV in NOVA was structurally higher than the rest of the state back then because basically everyone who commuted to DC was eligible.  The Arlington or Fairfax 2017 "baseline" can't really be compared to the rest of the state.

The Richmond exurb GOP surge looks legit though, and it fits with the consistently big Youngkin swing in Central VA seen in polling crosstabs.  Turnout in the western part of Central VA also looks really good for Youngkin.

Hampton Roads looks really good for McAuliffe, though.

Coal country turnout theoretically looks like a problem for Youngkin, but I have little doubt they will show up day-of.

Youngkin ain't Elder, I agree with you there.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

What about rain in NOVA

[Devils30]

Don’t read anything into early voting stats, please. Everyone knows that Republicans are more likely to vote on election day and Democrats are more likely to vote early — even in all-mail voting states like CA, this pattern is very evident (ballots dropped off late favored YES to a much greater extent than those reported early).

Overall, lower turnout would benefit McAuliffe given that the D base tends to be more reliable in off-years, but I don’t think turnout will be particularly low in VA at the end of the day.

VA had no early voting and very little absentee voting before 2020. With vaccines reducing the desire for mail voting, it's not surprising some people will just resort to old voting methods. That includes many Dems.

[It’s so Joever]

Cant believe Dem hacks are trying to spin this as not a big deal. LOOK AT FAIRFAX.

[Skill and Chance]

Cant believe Dem hacks are trying to spin this as not a big deal. LOOK AT FAIRFAX.

EV was structurally higher in NOVA in the old system, so it's not a fair comparison to 2017.

Central VA is a fair comparison, though, and it does look amazing for Youngkin. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Cant believe Dem hacks are trying to spin this as not a big deal. LOOK AT FAIRFAX.

I wish people would stop bumping this thread which is just a misinformation zone at this point.  As has been discussed on this forum in great detail.  Fairfax is artificially low because it's a huge county that doesn't open up adequate satellite early voting sites for another week or so.

[Schiff for Senate]

Let me reiterate: McAuliffe+7.2.

[THG]

This doesn’t look like a high single digit victory margin for the Democrats to me so far:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1448046285215371268

[Ferguson97]

This doesn’t look like a high single digit victory margin for the Democrats to me so far:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1448046285215371268

Eh I'd prefer to see a comparison to 2017. 2020 was a historically high turnout election.

[DaleCooper]

Comparing a state election that isn't even in a midterm year to the 2020 presidential election's turnout doesn't strike me as a fair comparison. I'll admit that on the surface it looks like some of these early voting numbers favor Youngkin, however, my gut instinct just doesn't buy that there's going to be a decline in turnout amongst Virginia's college educated voters.

[Spectator]

A lot of people voted by mail in 2020 because of the pandemic and there not being a vaccine yet.