Texas Senate
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2024, 05:21:24 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 100% pro-life no matter what)
  Texas Senate
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Texas Senate  (Read 147 times)
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 23, 2021, 06:52:27 PM »
« edited: September 23, 2021, 07:34:51 PM by jimrtex »

Since there is a committee hearing on the Senate map tomorrow, I decided to throw together a map.

This is my analysis. The numbers are in units of .001 of an ideal senate seat (940,178 person). Only six counties: Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis, and Collin must be split.


There are four major UCC in Texas: DFW, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. We want to contain districts within these areas as much as possible.

AreaEntitle
Houston7.336
DFW7.632
Austin2.276
San Antonio2.493
East4.049
West2.894
Border3.522
Central0.798

The other regions are to help lay out districts. The boundaries should be considered flexible for population balance reasons.

Houston has to shed a bit of population to get to seven districts, while DFW needs to add a similar amount to get to eight districts.

If we add the area ti DFW from the east region (say Kaufman, Grayson, and Hunt) and add Galveston to the eastern region then then the east region stays at 4 seats.

The Austin UCC drops Hays to get to two districts.

The Border area does not have enough for four districts. To go from 3.5 to four would either have to go close to Houston OR go into San Antonio. That is the preferred solution.

The border districts will be:

(1) El Paso + Trans-Pecos.
(2) Hidalgo + Starr
(3) Coastal Strip (Brownsville to Corpus Christi)
(4) Laredo to San Antonio

If we go a bit north of Corpus Christi, then that could free Guadalupe or Comal.

For the west we'll try the current configuation (Amarillo + Permian Basin; Lubbock + San Angelo + Abeline), but that will make the 3rd district  a long skinny north-south strip (Wichita Falls to Hill Country). Something like the congressional stack may work better (but remember senate districts are 22% larger than congressional districts).

East Texas will be:

Northeast, Southeast, East Central, and area between San Antonio/Austin and Houston.
Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2021, 07:34:07 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2021, 11:00:34 AM by jimrtex »

Single member districts.



AreaEntitleDistrictsDeviation
Houston6.9637-0.5%
DFW8.03780.5%
Austin2.02021.0%
San Antonio2.3833-0.5%
Border0.604
El Paso1.00410.4%
Hidalgo1.00110.1%
South Coast1.00010.0%
Northeast1.00310.3%
Southeast0.9911-0.9%
Deep East0.9971-0.3%
Coast0.9861-1.4%
Central1.00310.3%
West1.00210.2%
TX311.00210.2%
TX281.00510.5%

I removed Galveston from the Houston UCC, and added Grayson, Hunt, and Kaufman to the DFW UCC to get the two metro areas close to a whole number of representatives.

The Northeast and Southeast areas drew themselves. The Deep East district formed between the two. As I worked west, I discovered that I could not reach the quota by adding Freestone, Limestone, etc., but could by adding Brazos.

This then led to expansion of the Central area to the east. What had been considered a flexible area become a new district. Surprisingly, this is an open seat but strongly anchored by Waco, Temple, and Killeen.

The "Coast" district took up the remainder of the east region and includes Guadalupe which was detached from San Antonio.

The Border area was straightforward. It is not necessary to split Hidalgo or draw fajita strips. The El Paso district includes Loving, Winkler, Ward, and Crane because Val Verde was a little too much population.

The remaining of the border area will go into Bexar (San Antonio).

I started out with the current configurations of TX-28 and TX-31, but this left the remainder of the west area in a very thin strip along the eastern edge - it was not even fully contiguous. So I switched Wichita Falls and the Red River area into TX-28, and

Division of Metro Areas

Houston

Conceivably Montgomery, Fort Bend, and Brazoria could each extend into Harris to complete their district, but that would be kind of weird for the the Brazoria district. So I would split Fort Bend, adding most to Brazoria, and have a Houston district extending into Fort Bend. This might pull the Hispanic district too far south into the Clear Lake area. so the Brazoria district could include that area, and less of Fort Bend.

The Montgomery district would extend into Harris, probably into the northeast. This would leave the three minority districts in Harris. The final result would likely be three Republican seats, the Democrat and one competitive.

DFW

The three attached counties plus Rockwall form about 1/2 a district, which could be added to northern and eastern Collin. The remainder of Collin would be attached to northern Dallas. Add a Hispanic and Black district in Dallas, leaves a remnant of 0.432 which could be placed in a cross-border district with Tarrant. Denton could be kept as its own district, but I would be inclined to add a nibble (35K) from Tarrant.

Tarrant plus the remnant from Dallas along with Ellis and Johnson would form three districts. The city of Fort Worth has almost enough for a senate district, and with enclaves probably does. This would result in one district in eastern Tarrant including Arlington up to Denton line, and Ellis and Johnson being included in a district taking up southern and western Tarrant.

Austin

The two districts would be eastern Travis; and Williamson plus western Travis.

San Antonio

The extra counties would be added to northern Bexar. Webb (Laredo) and the other counties in the border area would be added to southern Bexar, and the third district would be the center of the county. We could also add the strip of Medina and Uvalde to the northern district.

Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2021, 10:47:59 PM »

This is an alternative version that preserves more incumbent opportunities.



It places Montague and Van Zandt in the Dallas area so that senators Springer and Hall are not paired with senators Perry and Hughes respectively.

This restores TX-31 to its current grouping of Lubbock, San Angelo, and Abilene. The central district is eliminated, recreating to some extent TX-5 (green) and TX-24 (rose). The current senator for TX-24 lives in Travis County. To preserve that opportunity, Hays could be added to Travis, and triple-splitting Travis.

There are seven senators along the border or in San Antonio (Blanco, Zaffirini, Hinojosa, Lucio, Menendez, Gutierrez, and Campbell). There are only six districts. To get to 7 districts you would have to add the green area. But that is a district in its own right. To make it available to the seven senators it would have to divided in three or more strips. The fundamental problem is that the border area is growing slower than the state as a whole.

The additional district will likely produce representation for Fort Bend.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.029 seconds with 11 queries.