If no states used commissions, what maps would we see?

[Tekken_Guy]

What maps would we see if no states used commissions to draw their maps?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

California would probably be different.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

California, Colorado, and New Jersey would be dem manders each with two republicans

[kwabbit]

California, Colorado, and New Jersey would be dem manders each with two republicans

NJ isn't too far off from what a Dem gerrymander would be. It was a purposeful decision to weaken Malinowski to shore up Sherill and Gottheimer. And Malinowski's seat is still Biden +4.

There used to be dreams of drawing out Van Drew, but I doubt a Democrat will be elected there for a long time.

[Tekken_Guy]

California, Colorado, and New Jersey would be dem manders each with two republicans

NJ isn't too far off from what a Dem gerrymander would be. It was a purposeful decision to weaken Malinowski to shore up Sherill and Gottheimer. And Malinowski's seat is still Biden +4.

There used to be dreams of drawing out Van Drew, but I doubt a Democrat will be elected there for a long time.

What would an actual Gerrymander look like?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

California, Colorado, and New Jersey would be dem manders each with two republicans

NJ isn't too far off from what a Dem gerrymander would be. It was a purposeful decision to weaken Malinowski to shore up Sherill and Gottheimer. And Malinowski's seat is still Biden +4.

There used to be dreams of drawing out Van Drew, but I doubt a Democrat will be elected there for a long time.

What would an actual Gerrymander look like?

I assume two GOP sinks - one in Northern Jersey, one in South. Or two in South, none in North. Perhaps three - 2 south, 1 north. In all cases, the rest of the seats would at least be Lean D.

[ProgressiveModerate]

California would be really intersting to see how agressive Dems go.

Colorado would also be interesting to see if Dems keep Colorado Springs whole. A 6-2 map is very possible by giving CO-03 more of Boulder County, but 7-1 is pretty difficult because of geography

[TML]

In Montana, we would probably see two seats where even recent downballot Democrats lost both districts by double digits.

[lfromnj]

In Montana, we would probably see two seats where even recent downballot Democrats lost both districts by double digits.

I would actually be interested to see Montana's map.  I think the GOP's initial commission  proposal would probably be the actual map. Splitting the state north-south instead of East West for an extra 2 points and destroying the fabric of how the state is divided is just something legislators wouldn't want to do.

An interesting thing about Montana is how relatively organized the GOP was compared to other states with commissions like Michigan or California.

[patzer]

California would be really intersting to see how agressive Dems go.

Colorado would also be interesting to see if Dems keep Colorado Springs whole. A 6-2 map is very possible by giving CO-03 more of Boulder County, but 7-1 is pretty difficult because of geography

In Colorado the main question is if they would be brave enough to split Denver- that's the one thing that would make aggressive gerrymanders possible as you wouldn't be sinking so many Democratic voters then.

If they were as aggressive as Illinois was, then a 6D-2C-0R map like this (with Hispanic-majority 1st, as a Hispanic district would be the obvious excuse for making a Denver split) could be on the cards. https://davesredistricting.org/join/7b4a3e03-79df-4992-83f9-652caad16cad

[I’m not Stu]

Maybe something similar to this in Maine?

[David Hume]

IA, HI: no change.

AZ: probably 7-2 R gerrymander if they are aggressive enough, like this one https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::0f550399-0127-40d4-a444-f251da43a128

CA: more aggressive D gerrymander, to the point that CASC feels comfortable, at least safe 47-5.

CO: aggressive D gerrymander, to the point that COSC feels comfortable, at least safe 6-2

WA: aggressive D gerrymander, to the point that WASC feels comfortable, at least safe 8-2

MT: safe 0-2.

IA: Unpack IA-04 to make 3 safe R and 1 toss-up.

VA: Dems may pass a gerrymander before Youngkin took office, but it gets struck down by the R VASC, which draws the current map.

NJ: Dems pass a gerrymander, but not too extreme, since the NJSC is moderate R. Probably similar to the current one.

MI: the 4-3 D MISC draws the map, not sure how aggressive they are, probably similar to the current one. But if R flip the governorship and SC, they can draw a very aggressive gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

IA, HI: no change.

AZ: probably 7-2 R gerrymander if they are aggressive enough, like this one https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::0f550399-0127-40d4-a444-f251da43a128

CA: more aggressive D gerrymander, to the point that CASC feels comfortable, at least safe 47-5.

CO: aggressive D gerrymander, to the point that COSC feels comfortable, at least safe 6-2

WA: aggressive D gerrymander, to the point that WASC feels comfortable, at least safe 8-2

MT: safe 0-2, like an even split between the north and south.

IA: Unpack IA-04 to make 3 safe R and 1 toss-up.

VA: Dems may pass a gerrymander before Youngkin took office, but then struck down by the R VASC, which draws the current map.

NJ: Dems pass gerrymander, but not too extreme, since the NJSC is moderate R. Probably similar to the current one.

MI: the 4-3 D MISC draws the map, not sure how aggressive they are, probably similar to the current one. But if R flip the governorship and SC, they can draw a very aggressive gerrymander.

 

This is unlikely and ignores Montana geography. East West is the clear divide. The issue is the West is bigger than the East so something has to be excised(Bozeman/Helena/Flathead) . The West is medium red, Bozeman is medium blue, Flathead is deep red and Helena is medium red. The GOP initial proposal would have been the map.

[7,052,770]

California could easily go 52-0, and it's a real shame they didn't repeal their commission about a year ago to try to add leverage to national Democrats trying to ban gerrymandering.

[Tekken_Guy]

NJ probably wouldn’t have to get rid of Tom Malinowski. They’d just unpack NJ-12 instead.

AZ is probably more aggressive. Greg Stanton might get a vote sink while Schweikert is shored up.

CA probably takes out every Republican except for LaMalfa, McCarthy, and a few others. Garcia’s seat dips deeper south into very blue parts.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

California could easily go 52-0, and it's a real shame they didn't repeal their commission about a year ago to try to add leverage to national Democrats trying to ban gerrymandering.

Considering the commission was the result of a ballot measure, I think it can only repealed through another ballot measure

[Libertas Vel Mors]

California could easily go 52-0, and it's a real shame they didn't repeal their commission about a year ago to try to add leverage to national Democrats trying to ban gerrymandering.

California would not go 52-0.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

(Also, California couldn't really go 52-0 because doing so would violate the VRA in the Central Valley and OC-Riverside-LA areas. At most I could see CA going 49-3.)