MI-GOV: Trafalgar: Craig +6
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  MI-GOV: Trafalgar: Craig +6
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Author Topic: MI-GOV: Trafalgar: Craig +6  (Read 2324 times)
NewYorkExpress
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« on: September 23, 2021, 12:03:32 AM »

https://thetrafalgargroup.org/MI-Gov-Sept-Poll-Report.pdf

James Craig 50.4%
Gretchen Whitmer 44.4%
Undecided 5.2%
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THG
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2021, 12:37:27 AM »

Trafalgar is generally more accurate in the Midwest than they are in other regions of America (apart from Florida maybe) though I don’t think the margin is this big for Craig.

I could definitely see Whitmer losing to Craig, just not by 6.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2021, 04:22:51 AM »

Whitmer might lose
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2021, 04:57:50 AM »

Tilt R.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2021, 10:42:06 AM »

Craig's own internal has him down 1, so...
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Person Man
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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2021, 10:19:13 AM »

I think if it’s this bad in the end, Biden might not seek re-election.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2021, 10:32:01 AM »

They were the most accurate pollster in 2020 so this is concerning.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2021, 11:03:34 AM »

R polls are inflated right now, Sununu and Laxalt aren't up by nine pts, and Whitmer isnt down by six
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2021, 11:48:33 AM »

Whitmer isn't going to lose by 6, but this race is definitely concerning. Toss-Up, and not significantly less likely to flip than Wisconsin, if at all.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2021, 11:50:43 AM »

Whitmer isn't going to lose by 6, but this race is definitely concerning. Toss-Up, and not significantly less likely to flip than Wisconsin, if at all.

Eh, Trafalgar is the gold standard.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2021, 12:00:14 PM »

Whitmer isn't going to lose by 6, but this race is definitely concerning. Toss-Up, and not significantly less likely to flip than Wisconsin, if at all.

Eh, Trafalgar is the gold standard.
It's more the pyrite standard than anything.
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2021, 05:25:47 PM »

Trafalgar is very reliable on the Midwest and Florida. They have a tough time in Georgia and states that are solid D states, so I can see this being true.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2021, 05:31:48 PM »

Did they poll SOS or AG?
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Vosem
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« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2021, 05:40:54 PM »

I think if it’s this bad in the end, Biden might not seek re-election.

Clinton and Obama both won in spite of really bad midterm backlashes, and Trump came extremely close. I think only a health scare might cause Biden not to seek reelection; aside from that he's all in. (And in public statements he's been incredibly clear, going back to his campaign launch in 2019, that his intention is to be a two-term President).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2021, 05:48:06 PM »

Trafalgar is very reliable on the Midwest and Florida. They have a tough time in Georgia and states that are solid D states, so I can see this being true.

GA ISNOT A SOLID D STATE, WARNOCK CAN EASILY LOSE IN A RUNOFF, HE HAS TO GET 51% TO AVOID A RUNOFF

WHITMER IS FINE SHE WILL WIN
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2021, 05:50:08 PM »

Whitmer isn't going to lose by 6, but this race is definitely concerning. Toss-Up, and not significantly less likely to flip than Wisconsin, if at all.

Eh, Trafalgar is the gold standard.

It's had some hilariously bad poll numbers for a supposed "gold standard." Plus, it missed Michigan by nearly five points in 2020, so while other pollsters weren't exactly great in the Midwest, perfect TrafLOLgar is not.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2021, 01:25:17 PM »

I don't trust Trafalgar any more than the other polling firms. I recognize that they were more accurate than anyone else (Selzer in Iowa aside) in the midwest so I won't write them off completely, but I hesitate to trust any polling company that behaves like unprofessional partisans. It makes it tough to know if they're accurate because their methodology is sound, or if they're only accurate in the midwest because that's the area where Republicans over-perform their polling averages most often.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: September 26, 2021, 12:49:40 PM »

They were the most accurate pollster in 2020 so this is concerning.

and titanium accurate in the CA-GOV race 2021 too!
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Beet
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« Reply #18 on: September 26, 2021, 12:52:06 PM »

Honestly I could see Whitmer losing by 10 as a possibility.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #19 on: September 27, 2021, 09:19:43 AM »

Honestly I could see Whitmer losing by 10 as a possibility.

I doubt it, Traggy had Trump winning MI last time, Gretchen is gonna win, the map is gonna follow the Blue 🧱🧱🧱

Biden Approvals aren't gonna stay at 45
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #20 on: September 27, 2021, 10:36:46 AM »

Whitmer should be fine. The partisan lean of Michigan, combined with just not ignoring it like Dems did in 2016, probably allows her to win by a 3-5% margin, but not more.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #21 on: September 27, 2021, 10:50:53 PM »

Trafalgar is generally more accurate in the Midwest than they are in other regions of America (apart from Florida maybe) though I don’t think the margin is this big for Craig.

I could definitely see Whitmer losing to Craig, just not by 6.

For a change I agree with you. Best case scenario for the GOP, what do you think Craig's margin is? I'd say 3 points or thereabouts.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2021, 09:53:03 AM »

Trafalgar is generally more accurate in the Midwest than they are in other regions of America (apart from Florida maybe) though I don’t think the margin is this big for Craig.

I could definitely see Whitmer losing to Craig, just not by 6.

For a change I agree with you. Best case scenario for the GOP, what do you think Craig's margin is? I'd say 3 points or thereabouts.

You really think Whitmer can't pull it out in 13 mnths
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #23 on: September 28, 2021, 11:06:14 AM »

Trafalgar is generally more accurate in the Midwest than they are in other regions of America (apart from Florida maybe) though I don’t think the margin is this big for Craig.

I could definitely see Whitmer losing to Craig, just not by 6.

For a change I agree with you. Best case scenario for the GOP, what do you think Craig's margin is? I'd say 3 points or thereabouts.

You really think Whitmer can't pull it out in 13 mnths

She definitely can, it's just not definitely ascertained yet, which is why I said a 3-point GOP flip is their best case scenario (worst case scenario for the GOP, they lose by about 4-5 points).
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beesley
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« Reply #24 on: September 29, 2021, 10:38:37 AM »

Whitmer isn't going to lose by 6, but this race is definitely concerning. Toss-Up, and not significantly less likely to flip than Wisconsin, if at all.

Eh, Trafalgar is the gold standard.
It's more the pyrite standard than anything.

That is a very good way of putting it. They leaned to the right which gives the impression of reduced polling error, in the same way that some Atlas posters were more accurate.
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