If Florida Had a Recall

[Real Texan Politics]

First and foremost, Florida DOES NOT have recall elections for governors. So there is no way DeSantis can be recalled (despite many wanting one).

But if the laws were different and Florida was able to hold recall elections, I'm almost certain democrats would successfully launch a recall election this year due to his handling of COVID.

So how would the hypothetical election go? Who would the replacement candidates be, and who would be the "Larry Elder" of the replacement pack?

Also, what would the county map potentially look like, for both the recall and replacement maps?

My prediction: Lean keep; Crist and Fried would probably lead the replacement pack, with Rebekah Jones potentially being the dark horse candidate (who'd probably end up losing embarrassingly like Caitlyn Jenner in California).

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

+5 Keep

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

We’ve now reached the hypothetical both sides portion of coping.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Keep 2%. I put lean keep on there.

[brucejoel99]

Honestly, I think I'd rate it as a Pure Tossup: you can just never know when it comes to off-year elections - let alone an off-year recall election - in swing*y* states. Fried & Crist would probably be the ones duking it out to win the replacement question, though, as the FLGOP would likely do what the CA Dems did: unite around the Governor, ensure that legit candidates don't run on the replacement question, & encourage the rank-&-file to leave the replacement question blank.

[S019]

Hot take coming, but I think Remove would win, I don't doubt that there are plenty of people who don't like DeSantis but would not vote for a Democrat, also an Elder-style figure becoming the main Democratic replacement candidate seems unlikely, if it is someone like Crist, who is himself a former Republican, these people could definitely feel more safe removing DeSantis. I mean to use the California parallel, let's not pretend that Faulconer wouldn't have done better than Elder, Elder actively sabotaged the GOP effort (yes it was a far reach, but there's a difference between losing by 15 and 25), I just can't see Crist doing that type of sabotage (or frankly, any type of sabotage) to the Dem effort, Remove+3.

[Ferguson97]

Like every Florida election, pure tossup.

DeSantis has only gotten more controversial since 2018, and he was narrowly elected.

If it uses the exact same system as California (50.1% YES means he is recalled), then it puts him in a very tough position.

If I had to bet, I would prooooobably put it on keep, but it really is close to a tossup.

[Progressive Pessimist]

^Why is anyone still overestimating Florida? When will you learn?

[brucejoel99]

^Why is anyone still overestimating Florida? When will you learn?

As much as my state is Florida, nothing would be off the table in off-year special - let alone recall - elections. It'd be wack.

[Cyrusman]

Like every Florida election, pure tossup.

DeSantis has only gotten more controversial since 2018, and he was narrowly elected.

If it uses the exact same system as California (50.1% YES means he is recalled), then it puts him in a very tough position.

If I had to bet, I would prooooobably put it on keep, but it really is close to a tossup.

Why is he more controversial since 2018? Because he is against strict covid rules?
I’d argue his base is WAY bigger than it was in 2018.

[Hollywood]

^Why is anyone still overestimating Florida? When will you learn?

Cause the Cuban and South American community hated Biden going into the 2020 election, and they've only grown to hate him and the Democrats more cause Biden didn't speak up for the Cuban people when they were protesting the government.  That's gonna keep Miami-Dade close.  

It spilled over into Broward Country.  There was a larger coalition of blue collar workers, and modern orthodox and conservative Jews that were outraged over Cuomo's targeting of Jews that were practicing their religion during the pandemic, especially after watching BLM rioters get special treatment to exercise their 1st amendment rights.  It blunted the Democratic advantage in the county.  They need to win Broward by 68-72%.

Biden actually did well in Republican areas, but losing those people in SE Florida has tipped the balance in favor of Republicans.  All those feelings didn't disappear in the last year.    

[Ferguson97]

Like every Florida election, pure tossup.

DeSantis has only gotten more controversial since 2018, and he was narrowly elected.

If it uses the exact same system as California (50.1% YES means he is recalled), then it puts him in a very tough position.

If I had to bet, I would prooooobably put it on keep, but it really is close to a tossup.

Why is he more controversial since 2018? Because he is against strict covid rules?
I’d argue his base is WAY bigger than it was in 2018.

I can’t imagine that anyone who voted for Gillum plans to vote for him in 22 tbh

[DaleCooper]

Like every Florida election, pure tossup.

DeSantis has only gotten more controversial since 2018, and he was narrowly elected.

If it uses the exact same system as California (50.1% YES means he is recalled), then it puts him in a very tough position.

If I had to bet, I would prooooobably put it on keep, but it really is close to a tossup.

Why is he more controversial since 2018? Because he is against strict covid rules?
I’d argue his base is WAY bigger than it was in 2018.

I can’t imagine that anyone who voted for Gillum plans to vote for him in 22 tbh

Why not?

[THG]

The race would get nationalized, the already incompetent Democrats in Florida would run horrible candidates that would rile up every Republican and turn off independents, the nationwide GOP would rally behind DeSantis, and he’d end up defeating the recall by similar to Trump 2020 margins if not way more.

Basically a really similar story to what happened in the California recall.

[THG]

^Why is anyone still overestimating Florida? When will you learn?

Cause the Cuban and South American community hated Biden going into the 2020 election, and they've only grown to hate him and the Democrats more cause Biden didn't speak up for the Cuban people when they were protesting the government.  That's gonna keep Miami-Dade close.  

It spilled over into Broward Country.  There was a larger coalition of blue collar workers, and modern orthodox and conservative Jews that were outraged over Cuomo's targeting of Jews that were practicing their religion during the pandemic, especially after watching BLM rioters get special treatment to exercise their 1st amendment rights.  It blunted the Democratic advantage in the county.  They need to win Broward by 68-72%.

Biden actually did well in Republican areas, but losing those people in SE Florida has tipped the balance in favor of Republicans.  All those feelings didn't disappear in the last year.    

Biden only really improved in Duval and Seminole, which are like the only two left trendimg counties in that state. The rest of the “Republican areas” in the state either didn’t budge or had really unconvincing trends.

Also, Palm Beach is trending rightwards too and has been doing so longer than Dade or Broward- as are so many exurban counties in the state. I feel like people who solely attribute the rightward trends of Florida to the Miami/SoFlo area ignore how conservative many of the central and southern exurbs have gotten and will continue to get.

[President Johnson]

Likely Keep.

DeathSantis wins 53-47%.

[MT Treasurer]

DeSantis/NO +4, in line with 2020-PRES and the increasing nationalization of non-federal races. Here, a slightly more favorable environment (in line with the CA 2020->2021 shift) would offset disproportionate D engegament/a slight drop-off in R turnout (remember: no all-mail voting in FL like in CA). On the other hand, it’s hard to believe that the drop-off in R turnout would be particularly dramatic in this state given that FL one of their very few wins in 2018 and 2020.

More R states should think about implementing all-mail voting, especially MT/WV/OH, where Democrats still have a chance of winning Senate races in 2024 (although MT more so than WV/OH, obviously). This was one of Bullock's biggest own goals.

[Cyrusman]

Like every Florida election, pure tossup.

DeSantis has only gotten more controversial since 2018, and he was narrowly elected.

If it uses the exact same system as California (50.1% YES means he is recalled), then it puts him in a very tough position.

If I had to bet, I would prooooobably put it on keep, but it really is close to a tossup.

Why is he more controversial since 2018? Because he is against strict covid rules?
I’d argue his base is WAY bigger than it was in 2018.

I can’t imagine that anyone who voted for Gillum plans to vote for him in 22 tbh

According to CNN exit polls, Gillum won independents 54-44. This was in a Democrat friendly year, before people knew about Gillum baggage, and when Desantis was an unknown. You can’t imagine even 1% of those independents flipping?

[SnowLabrador]

Like every Florida election, pure tossup.

DeSantis has only gotten more controversial since 2018, and he was narrowly elected.

If it uses the exact same system as California (50.1% YES means he is recalled), then it puts him in a very tough position.

If I had to bet, I would prooooobably put it on keep, but it really is close to a tossup.

Why is he more controversial since 2018? Because he is against strict covid rules?
I’d argue his base is WAY bigger than it was in 2018.

I can’t imagine that anyone who voted for Gillum plans to vote for him in 22 tbh

According to CNN exit polls, Gillum won independents 54-44. This was in a Democrat friendly year, before people knew about Gillum baggage, and when Desantis was an unknown. You can’t imagine even 1% of those independents flipping?

I don't expect DeSantis to come even remotely close to losing, but Gillum won't be his opponent in 2022.

[_.]

Like every Florida election, pure tossup.

DeSantis has only gotten more controversial since 2018, and he was narrowly elected.

If it uses the exact same system as California (50.1% YES means he is recalled), then it puts him in a very tough position.

If I had to bet, I would prooooobably put it on keep, but it really is close to a tossup.

Why is he more controversial since 2018? Because he is against strict covid rules?
I’d argue his base is WAY bigger than it was in 2018.

I can’t imagine that anyone who voted for Gillum plans to vote for him in 22 tbh

Why not?

Ah, you didn't quite hear the news

[Real Texan Politics]

Like every Florida election, pure tossup.

DeSantis has only gotten more controversial since 2018, and he was narrowly elected.

If it uses the exact same system as California (50.1% YES means he is recalled), then it puts him in a very tough position.

If I had to bet, I would prooooobably put it on keep, but it really is close to a tossup.

Why is he more controversial since 2018? Because he is against strict covid rules?
I’d argue his base is WAY bigger than it was in 2018.

I can’t imagine that anyone who voted for Gillum plans to vote for him in 22 tbh

Why not?

Ah, you didn't quite hear the news

If Gillum runs again at any point in the future then I'm just gonna laugh

[Schiff for Senate]

The race would get nationalized, the already incompetent Democrats in Florida would run horrible candidates that would rile up every Republican and turn off independents, the nationwide GOP would rally behind DeSantis, and he’d end up defeating the recall by similar to Trump 2020 margins if not way more.

Basically a really similar story to what happened in the California recall.

The only difference being that CA voted Democratic by 29 points and FL voted red by 3 in 2020. And unlike whatever you predicted (a 5-10 point Democratic win), Newsom won by 25 points. FL is still moderately competitive, whether or not you like it. FL is a legitimate swing-ish state that would be lean Republican, not safe Republican.

Also, there are strong Democrats in Florida, though I admit that overall they are a fairly weak party given the state's size and partisanship. Rep. Stephanie Murphy is a good example, and being a moderate, she could win over independents who don't like living in a death-ridden state.

Of course, you've learned from last time's mistakes inthat you are making bold and unrealistic predictions only for an election we all know won't be happening (and thus it will be impossible to prove your outlandish predictions wrong once again), and are done making any such predictions in elections which will actually be held (where you'd run a big risk of being proven wrong yet again).

The only way the CA recall and an FL recall would be remotely similar to each other would be you making a bold prediction that overestimates the GOP for both.

[Schiff for Senate]

DeSantis/NO +4, in line with 2020-PRES and the increasing nationalization of non-federal races. Here, a slightly more favorable environment (in line with the CA 2020->2021 shift) would offset disproportionate D engegament/a slight drop-off in R turnout (remember: no all-mail voting in FL like in CA). On the other hand, it’s hard to believe that the drop-off in R turnout would be particularly dramatic in this state given that FL one of their very few wins in 2018 and 2020.

Glad to see MT Treasurer provides a sane alternative to THG's nonsense 'predictions' and Olawakandi overestimating Democrats.

[EastwoodS]

58-42 keep, c’mon now