Growth of Haredi Jews?

[Biden his time]

I have created many posts about American Haredi Jews in the past but wanted to make a proper thread to talk about the topic of the crux of my curiosity (which is mainly the hypothetical future flipping of Rockland County Republican in U.S. Presidential elections) but also these other questions

How shall the population growth of the Haredi Jews economically, culturally, and politically affect the areas of their growth (especially Rockland County, NY; Orange County, NY; Brooklyn, NY; Ocean County, NJ)?
Will areas containing Haredi Jews become more Republican because of population gains?
When does it happen (especially for Rockland County and Orange County)?
Should we expect these population and political trends to continue into the future?
How likely is it that the Haredi Jews stay monolithically Republican considering their more bipartisan political history?
In the future, will they be granted Voting-Rights Act congressional districts due to their concentration and population in certain parts of the country?

[Oryxslayer]

Will they keep growing? Yes, plenty of evidence from Israel and similar religious minorities suggests that if you are in the community, you will have a big family?

VRA districts? No. One can draw such districts at the local level but Dems prefer to crack if available, pack if the districts are too small to do so. The VRA does not cover religious minorities and so for all purposes the Hasidim are white. The VRA would have to be extended through another Gingles-style case, and that would likely require a significant sea case in the American population's religious views so one can establish clear block voting among other groups. Also, there's the problem that the census does not count religion - that's the ACS.

The group is not bipartisan in the slightest. It is monolithic. It follows the endorsements of the community leaders, who are as numerous and diverse as the Jewish faith. If that's for a Dem or Rep, than that's who gets the vote.

Therefore, the better question should be if the leadership remains as lockstep GOP as it was in 2020. That's up to one's own estimation. Some factions have never voted Dem presidentially since Lieberman was on the ticket, others did plenty of times. Some factions take inspirations from the Religious Right. The faith has always been 'insular' in that it prefers as limited contact with secular authority as possible. What things they did need often come from the Democrats - for example low income assistance (very poor families because religious study takes cultural priority over work, but not to the degree in Israel) and protection against religious intolerance. COVID's masks and lockdowns pushed all the buttons the community hated, so of course everyone looks at the guy who didn't want these things.

[Biden his time]

VRA districts? No. One can draw such districts at the local level but Dems prefer to crack if available, pack if the districts are too small to do so. The VRA does not cover religious minorities and so for all purposes the Hasidim are white. The VRA would have to be extended through another Gingles-style case, and that would likely require a significant sea case in the American population's religious views so one can establish clear block voting among other groups. Also, there's the problem that the census does not count religion - that's the ACS.

Hasn't the argument been made though that things that aren't racial groups can be considered voting rights act districts? For example I've seen the argument many times that Jacksonville should not be cracked and split because it violates the voting rights act, reason being that it purposely dilutes the representation of the people of Jacksonville and Duval County. I agree with this personally.

Do you not think this could extend to the Haredi Jews as well? For example, if we got to a point where there are 400K Haredi Jews in Brooklyn living in a contiguous area, and if a map is drawn that cracks and splits this bloc between five different districts in order to dilute their influence as part of the Democratic gerrymander, could that not be considered a VRA violation, as it purposefully attempts to deprive them of representation? I would argue that this indeed is the case, and that a religious census is not required to make this apparent. Unless I misunderstand the Voting Rights Act, in which case I apologize for the ignorance and would like to be corrected.

Also, a minor note, religion data is not collected in the American Community Survey, and in fact it isn't at all collected nationwide by any American governmental institution.

The group is not bipartisan in the slightest. It is monolithic. It follows the endorsements of the community leaders, who are as numerous and diverse as the Jewish faith. If that's for a Dem or Rep, than that's who gets the vote.

Therefore, the better question should be if the leadership remains as lockstep GOP as it was in 2020.

Yes! Thank you, that's what I meant when I was saying the word "bipartisan" but no doubt you have better word choice.

And the last sentence in the above quote is precisely what I was attempting to ask!

That's up to one's own estimation. Some factions have never voted Dem presidentially since Lieberman was on the ticket, others did plenty of times. Some factions take inspirations from the Religious Right. The faith has always been 'insular' in that it prefers as limited contact with secular authority as possible. What things they did need often come from the Democrats - for example low income assistance (very poor families because religious study takes cultural priority over work, but not to the degree in Israel) and protection against religious intolerance. COVID's masks and lockdowns pushed all the buttons the community hated, so of course everyone looks at the guy who didn't want these things.

Interesting analysis!

[Oryxslayer]

I think what you are talking about when it comes to duval is "communities of interest" (COI) - a group of people defined to have a similar set of somethings. A COI can be applied to almost anything is defined exactly enough and it is a clear enough group, for example town built to accommodate horses in Riverside CA. However, some COI's are by definition self-explanatory; these include ethnic groups, locality lines, metro areas, etc. Therefore a city-county like Duval can be an obvious COI, and the Hasidim can be an obvious COI. But the VRA does not protect COIs. Only redistricting reform can.

Even then, the VRA prefers destroying COIs when necessary. The core proponent of this is not block voting, for while AAs are the obvious example, the VRA has been extended to groups with much less uniform values depending on the group and part of the country in question. it is also not dependent on majority-minority seats, which may go back to Duval. Coalition seats can be protected if the minority can control the primary and then the minority and her allies can control the general. If however there are no obvious amount of allies available, you need to gradually raise the threshold. This applies to both the deep south, where AAs have almost no whites anymore to help a group with lower turnout so the districts must go well above 50%, and urban cities where two democratic ethnic groups put up their own candidates in a primary.

At the end of the day, the VRA is about ensuring equal access to the ballot box and equal participation in government for those who would lack it without. VRA districts are only one angle, also ballots laws were previously under review. For the Hasidim they are the beneficiaries of access laws in NY (not sure about NJ) that give them time to vote that does not conflict with any potential religious holidays. As far as access goes, the Congress has a number of Jews in both parties, and I think the NY leg as well. Many of whom are elected to districts with very few Jewish voters. So the broader electorate does not have fault with these groups, so there is no need for districts to ensure access.

Tennessee is a great example. It has two Jewish reps, one from both party, both elected to districts without sizable Jewish populations. But one would not be able to win election without the AA district, and because he has proven himself to be the preferred candidate of that community many times, minority access is working.

[Biden his time]

I think what you are talking about when it comes to duval is "communities of interest" (COI) - a group of people defined to have a similar set of somethings. A COI can be applied to almost anything is defined exactly enough and it is a clear enough group, for example town built to accommodate horses in Riverside CA. However, some COI's are by definition self-explanatory; these include ethnic groups, locality lines, metro areas, etc. Therefore a city-county like Duval can be an obvious COI, and the Hasidim can be an obvious COI. But the VRA does not protect COIs. Only redistricting reform can.

Even then, the VRA prefers destroying COIs when necessary. The core proponent of this is not block voting, for while AAs are the obvious example, the VRA has been extended to groups with much less uniform values depending on the group and part of the country in question. it is also not dependent on majority-minority seats, which may go back to Duval. Coalition seats can be protected if the minority can control the primary and then the minority and her allies can control the general. If however there are no obvious amount of allies available, you need to gradually raise the threshold. This applies to both the deep south, where AAs have almost no whites anymore to help a group with lower turnout so the districts must go well above 50%, and urban cities where two democratic ethnic groups put up their own candidates in a primary.

At the end of the day, the VRA is about ensuring equal access to the ballot box and equal participation in government for those who would lack it without. VRA districts are only one angle, also ballots laws were previously under review. For the Hasidim they are the beneficiaries of access laws in NY (not sure about NJ) that give them time to vote that does not conflict with any potential religious holidays. As far as access goes, the Congress has a number of Jews in both parties, and I think the NY leg as well. Many of whom are elected to districts with very few Jewish voters. So the broader electorate does not have fault with these groups, so there is no need for districts to ensure access.

Tennessee is a great example. It has two Jewish reps, one from both party, both elected to districts without sizable Jewish populations. But one would not be able to win election without the AA district, and because he has proven himself to be the preferred candidate of that community many times, minority access is working.

Thank you very much for taking the time to write this out! Great explanation!

[Sol]

I'm not as updated on Hasidic sociolinguistics as I should be, but isn't there a decent argument that they might constitute a language minority under the VRA, given the continuing use of Yiddish in many communities?

In any case, the question assumes that different Hasidic communities necessarily would want to share a congressional district--which is questionable. There's a lot of internal diversity within the community.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm not as updated on Hasidic sociolinguistics as I should be, but isn't there a decent argument that they might constitute a language minority under the VRA, given the continuing use of Yiddish in many communities?

In any case, the question assumes that different Hasidic communities necessarily would want to share a congressional district--which is questionable. There's a lot of internal diversity within the community.

We have had this discussion before on the board, and the conclusion was Yiddish is only used by a small minority of those groups you references as a primary language. Secondary - absolutely ofc.

[Biden his time]

Some data all of you all may find interesting:


Population of Rockland County, New York

2000 U.S. Census: Total Population 286,753 (80,286 under 18)
Ramapo Township - 108,905 People (36,608 under 18)

2010 U.S. Census: Total Population 311,687 (87,580 under 18)
Ramapo Township - 126,595 People (44,823 under 18)

2020 U.S. Census: Total Population 338,329 (98,813 under 18)
Ramapo Township - 148,919 People (58,559 under 18)


Population of Orange County, New York

2000 U.S. Census: Total Population 341,367 (99,156 under 18)
Kiryas Joel Village - 13,138 People (7,557 under 18)

2010 U.S. Census: Total Population 372,813 (101,529 under 18)
Kiryas Joel Village - 20,175 People (12,197 under 18)

2020 U.S. Census: Total Population 401,310 (102,007 under 18)
Kiryas Joel Village - 32,954 People (19,328 under 18)


Population of Ocean County, New Jersey

2000 U.S. Census: Total Population 510,916 (119,046 under 18)
Lakewood Township - 60,352 People (19,186 under 18)

2010 U.S. Census: Total Population 576,567 (134,919 under 18)
Lakewood Township - 92,843 People (38,842 under 18)

2020 U.S. Census: Total Population 637,229 (154,629 under 18)
Lakewood Township - 135,158 People (64,765 under 18)

[Biden his time]

Some more data you all might find interesting:

See the maps in Dave's Redistricting App here

Image Link


Borough Park (ZIP Codes 11204 and 11219) (in Blue on the Map)

2016 U.S. Presidential Election: 56.7% Trump, 39.4% Clinton; 31,607 votes total

2020 U.S. Presidential Election: 65.7% Trump, 33.3% Biden; 39,720 votes total

Swing: R+15.1


South Williamsburg, Brooklyn (in Red on the Map)

2016 U.S. Presidential Election: 61.0% Clinton, 35.4% Trump; 5,796 votes total

2020 U.S. Presidential Election: 72.1% Trump, 27.0% Biden; 11,854 votes total

Swing: R+70.7

Image Link


Ramapo town, Rockland County (in Green on the Map)

2016 U.S. Presidential Election: 52.0% Clinton, 44.6% Trump; 43,096 votes total

2020 U.S. Presidential Election: 59.1% Trump, 40.1% Biden; 50,127 votes total

Swing: R+26.4


Palm Tree town, Orange County (in Purple on the Map)

2016 U.S. Presidential Election: 50.4% Trump, 39.5% Clinton; 3,281 votes total

2020 U.S. Presidential Election: 98.5% Trump, 1.3% Biden; 6,371 votes total

Swing: R+86.3