VA Early Voting #s (user search)
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Author Topic: VA Early Voting #s  (Read 17639 times)
Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,090
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Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: September 23, 2021, 12:04:58 PM »

Yes, nothing to see here thus far. If you take the percentage of requests from 2017 that weren't returned and apply it to 2021, then Virginia is already (more or less) at its 2017 EV turnout once requests are returned - that of course ignores how no-excuse EV now exists and didn't 4 years ago (LimoLiberal, ED 2017: "muh rain in NoVA")!

Reminds me a lot of how people freaked out about EV quintupling or whatever in MN after the first cycle where no-excuse EV was implemented.

Come back to this thread in 7-10 days to see anything meaningful.
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Adam Griffin
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*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2021, 05:10:49 PM »

Honestly, I'm supportive of ballots having to be received by Election Day (with an extra provision that ballots received post-ED will be counted if they're postmarked by the Friday before the election; to minimize potential postal issues).

This would hopefully help reduce the number of ballots that take days or weeks to count and mitigate all of these conspiracy theories about "votes being added at the last minute" or whatever. Most states send out mail ballots like 6-8 weeks in advance: that's really plenty of time to deal with them and doesn't cross into the realm of voter suppression.
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Adam Griffin
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*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2021, 09:39:50 PM »
« Edited: September 30, 2021, 09:52:10 PM by Adam Griffin »

One reason VA-9 is so low is because it's quite literally much less populated than the NOVA districts, especially VA-10.

Yeah, this is a good point. Should probably take the total EV, divide it by 11 and then see proportionally how it compares. These are the adjusted 2020 pop estimates from DRA. In a perfectly-balanced world, CD-10 should have ~25% more EVs than CD-09.

Quote
2020 Equalized CD Pop:
768562 (100.00%
)

CD-10:   115.24%
CD-01:   107.60%
CD-07:   106.25%
CD-11:   104.91%
CD-08:   103.91%
CD-04:   102.39%

CD-06:   99.44%
CD-03:   98.69%
CD-02:   97.86%
CD-05:   96.15%
CD-09:   90.74%

From a bird's eye glance (based on returned and requested ballots), CD 8 is overperforming the most, followed by CDs 11, 10 & 7. Even with CD 9 being the smallest, it's still vastly underperforming compared to the others based on population alone. CD 3 appears to be the second-worst, so there is a partisan correlation here - with some variance (see: CD 3).

Quote
2020 EV Avg by CD (9/29):
30336 (100.00%)


CD-08:   129.06%
CD-10:   121.09%
CD-11:   119.67%
CD-07:   117.16%
CD-01:   107.60%

CD-04:   95.40%
CD-05:   91.74%
CD-02:   88.67%
CD-06:   86.99%
CD-03:   82.58%
CD-09:   60.02%
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2021, 04:23:11 PM »

We can still compare just to illustrate that there's no reason to panic about turnout being low relative to what happened four years ago.

Quote
2017 Total EV Ballots Cast (11/7): 195634
2021 Total EV Ballots Cast (10/3): 181571

2017 Total EV + Unreturned VBM (11/7): 226343
2021 Total EV + Unreturned VBM (10/3): 367141

So actual cast ballots are already almost on par with total 2017 EV turnout - with a month to go. These ratios are fairly similar for both in-person vote (96% of 2017's total) and returned mail ballots (88%).

There are currently 6x the number of unreturned ballots/outstanding requests than there ended up being at the end in 2017 (186k vs 31k). Looks like around 70% of mail ballot requests were returned in 2017; if that proportion holds for this year, then we're already looking at >300k "banked" EVs (compared to 226k total in 2017).
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2021, 12:22:04 AM »

When did all of the advance in-person voting sites open in Fairfax in 2020? Was it earlier in the cycle or is it based on the same time-table as this year?
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2021, 03:08:23 PM »

I've been keeping an eye on mail ballot requests and comparing them to 2017's outcome: 70% of requested mail ballots were actually returned in 2017.

While it's a bit different this year in terms of scope and therefore the return rate may vary, if we use that percentage in conjunction with the number of votes that have definitively been cast/returned, then roughly 530,000 votes are already "locked in" (20% of 2017 turnout).

Also sucks that VPAP apparently removed the vote method breakdown for 2017 from the site in lieu of that 2021 EV timeline.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2021, 03:59:17 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2021, 04:06:20 AM by Adam Griffin »


With regard to turnout?

If so, a 3.3m+ vote electorate would not at all be surprising.

If VA followed GA's turnout pattern between the presidential election and the runoff, then we'd see 90% of the raw turnout of the presidential. That'd be 4m votes in Virginia.

That sounds a bit excessive given this isn't for control of the Senate, the entire country isn't trying to mobilize voters there and it's not immediately following a high-profile nationwide election. I could easily see 3.5m votes in this contest, though.



Including a projected percentage (70%) of outstanding mail ballots being returned, 638,000 votes have been banked thus far (24% of 2017 turnout).
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2021, 06:55:35 PM »

Based on TS data, if you assume all Ds vote D, all Rs vote R and indies go 60-40 Youngkin, you have almost exactly a 60-40 McAuliffe EV total thus far.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2021, 07:25:26 PM »

Based on TS data, if you assume all Ds vote D, all Rs vote R and indies go 60-40 Youngkin, you have almost exactly a 60-40 McAuliffe EV total thus far.

What is the 60-40 split for Indies based on?  Just Youngkin generally rising in the polls?

It just seems to be the "consensus" at this point. Not paying much attention but there was at least one poll pointing toward that. It's also how the TS numbers more or less have to break down for those who've been saying EV is +20 Mc all along. Obv a few Ds will vote R and vice-versa, so the actual indy split in this scenario would be a handful of points closer than my above example.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2021, 07:26:02 PM »

Ironically I haven't been paying attention to the data the past week because I've been staying in Roanoke!
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2021, 10:24:51 PM »

283k out of 383k returned already is a higher percentage (74%) than in 2017 (70%), so it's not necessarily a bad rate of return overall. Of course, the raw total outstanding is much larger than 4 years ago, and percentage-wise not even close to 2020 (90%).
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2021, 10:39:36 PM »

Ironically I haven't been paying attention to the data the past week because I've been staying in Roanoke!

Thoughts about Roanoke?

Any info from a birds eye view???

Finally back home, so I guess I'll share my anecdotal thoughts.

Of course it is more or less Appalachian - I could make a lot of compare/contrasts to Appalachian Georgia but I guess that's not too relevant. Many less affluent parts of it look and feel like the hollers further west and north.

First: I was staying in basically the only relatively black segment of the city. No signs anywhere. Plenty of Youngkin signs all over the suburban and even within the urban area. McAuliffe signs were basically either exclusively downtown or an occasional one here and there in some obviously rich white yard. Signs aren't indicative of votes, but they can be indicative of enthusiasm and/or how much work local orgs are doing outreach-wise to put signs in people's hands.

Odd observation: Roanoke/Salem seems very political. Tons of various bumperstickers and tags, various issue-based yard signs (non-campaign related), heaps of anti-abortion billboards, etc. I can't tell you how many businesses I saw that had not just McAuliffe or Youngkin signs in their windows/on display, but more detailed messages and the like. I distinctly remember one book store with "Terry McAuliffe doesn't have the right to tell our kids what they learn" on their sign.

I come from an obviously backwards and very heavily polarized environment, but seeing this extent of it was kind of amazing. Especially all the businesses "taking sides" in one way or another. Other than the occasional hardened partisan or business owner, it's not really something you see here.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2021, 06:51:39 AM »

What do these numbers tell us for those who know VA better?

Simplistically, I'd say: "Democrats better hope raw turnout is closer to 2017 levels than 2020 levels".
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