VA Early Voting #s

[Skill and Chance]

Voted in-person early: 62,170
Voted by mail: 22,229

About 84K votes now in.

So far, it's the ancestrally R outer suburbs/small city districts (VA-01, VA-06, and VA-07) that are dominating the in-person EV.  These seats were competitive between Trump and Biden in 2020 (Biden even narrowly won VA-07) and of course Spanberger flipped VA-07 at the congressional level in 2018, but they also delivered significant Republican margins in the state-level races in 2017 and 2019.  These are likely to be Youngkin seats, but VA-07 and VA-01 should not be Youngkin landslides.

The 3 Safe Dem NOVA seats unsurprisingly dominate mail ballot requests.  Also unsurprisingly, few mail-in votes have been returned so far. 

The lowest turnout so far is in the 70% Trump coal country district (VA-09), but the second lowest turnout is in one of the VRA districts (VA-03).

IDK what to make of all this.

[Skill and Chance]

Continues to be dominated by the 3 Dem NOVA districts (mail-in votes) and the 3 exurban college+ R districts that extend north of Richmond (VA-06, VA-01, and VA-07, the latter of which barely flipped to Biden in 2020).

Hampton Roads is really lagging, including the VRA district and the swing district.  The coal country 70% Trump district, VA-09, is the lowest of all, but IMO there is every reason to assume almost every voter there is waiting for day of.

[Skill and Chance]

If I remember correctly, in 2020 VA had a red mirage situation where the in-person votes got counted before most of the absentee ballots and Trump was almost even with Biden for quite awhile earlier on in the night.

Hopefully it doesn't get repeated this time, or else it could stir another "stop the count" moment or invite more allegations of fraud

R's are always head in VA at the beginning. The tide turns when the NOVA votes come in. The last close race in VA was 2014, and Gillespie was ahead for hours and hours. Eventually NOVA saved Warner, but in an actual close race it can be quite suspenseful waiting for those votes to come in.

Yes, and keep in mind VA law now allows mail ballots postmarked by election day to count if they arrive as late as Friday.  If the final result is McAuliffe by 2 or less, there is real potential for a PA 2020 situation where it looks like Youngkin has won until the weekend after the election. 

[Skill and Chance]

If I remember correctly, in 2020 VA had a red mirage situation where the in-person votes got counted before most of the absentee ballots and Trump was almost even with Biden for quite awhile earlier on in the night.

Hopefully it doesn't get repeated this time, or else it could stir another "stop the count" moment or invite more allegations of fraud

R's are always head in VA at the beginning. The tide turns when the NOVA votes come in. The last close race in VA was 2014, and Gillespie was ahead for hours and hours. Eventually NOVA saved Warner, but in an actual close race it can be quite suspenseful waiting for those votes to come in.

Yes, and keep in mind VA law now allows mail ballots postmarked by election day to count if they arrive as late as Friday.  If the final result is McAuliffe by 2 or less, there is real potential for a PA 2020 situation where it looks like Youngkin has won until the weekend after the election. 

This is utterly stupid. Requiring ballots to be received by poll closing is not VoTER sUPPressION. Oregon, not exactly a red or purple state, does it.

I agree, especially when a state has drop boxes where people can take it day-of if they want to.  To compound the crazy, the VA constitution gives the legislature the final authority to decide who won a state level race if the loser files to dispute it after a recount.  But we probably wouldn't know which party controls the HoD for weeks either.  It also isn't clear if such a challenge would be heard by the new legislature in January or if Northam can/would call a special session before the end of December, and that could be decisive if the lower house flips.  This is just asking for a state-level election certification dispute.       

[Skill and Chance]

How do these numbers compare to 2017?

N/A because VA was excuse-only absentee back then.

[Skill and Chance]

Total EV continues to be dominated by the 3 NOVA Dem districts, plus the heavily college+ R districts VA-01 and VA-07 (which was a bare Biden 2020/Kaine 2018 win, but otherwise votes R). VA-06 (safe R, Shenandoah Valley) is fading and VA-04 (the closer and more rural of the 2 VRA seats) is rapidly gaining.  VA-08 (inner NOVA, most Dem district in the state post-Obama) is now in the overall lead including mail request

[Skill and Chance]

9th Cong. turnout continues to seriously lag in terms of overall voted in person/voted by mail/ballot requests.  It's sitting at just 25,000.  For context.  The 8th congressional district is closing in on 49,000.  People can argue that this doesn't matter all they want because people will vote on Election Day, but the reality is this is not going to have Presidential or even midterm level turnout so they better get in gear soon because Dems are banking a lot of votes and the GOP can only win if they solidly outperform Dem base areas.

Maybe, but the VRA district is the 2nd lowest after VA-09.  Given the election day propensity in downscale R areas, that is arguably more concerning. 

The big question is VA-07 and VA-01.  Whether or not they (and to a lesser extent, VA-10) have reverted to pre-Trump voting patterns should be what decides the race. 

[Skill and Chance]

9th Cong. turnout continues to seriously lag in terms of overall voted in person/voted by mail/ballot requests.  It's sitting at just 25,000.  For context.  The 8th congressional district is closing in on 49,000.  People can argue that this doesn't matter all they want because people will vote on Election Day, but the reality is this is not going to have Presidential or even midterm level turnout so they better get in gear soon because Dems are banking a lot of votes and the GOP can only win if they solidly outperform Dem base areas.

Maybe, but the VRA district is the 2nd lowest after VA-09.  Given the election day propensity in downscale R areas, that is arguably more concerning. 

The big question is VA-07 and VA-01.  Whether or not they (and to a lesser extent, VA-10) have reverted to pre-Trump voting patterns should be what decides the race. 

VA-01 and VA-07 will decide whether this resembles the Virginia of 2016 or the Virginia of 2020. They won’t decide who “wins” this race.

This.  Dems certainly don't need Trump era voting patterns in those two districts to win.  As long as NOVA turnout is typical off year level (i.e., at or above the state avg.) then Dems will win.  Virginia isn't a 50/50 state and thus Dems don't need to win the swingier parts of it.  They just need to maintain their base and base turnout. 

Yes, but a 2013 style (Cuccinelli+1) or even 2008 style (Obama+3) result in VA-10 would certainly put the statewide result in doubt given how the rest of the state has moved since then. 

[Skill and Chance]

I appreciate JMC analysis but why anyone would compare this to 2020 is beyond me.

Well, it's better than comparing to 2017, but only barely!

[Skill and Chance]

As of 10/18
Early in person: 284,511
Mail ballots returned: 160,179
Total = 444,690

As of 10/19
Early in person: 309,741
Mail ballots returned: 171,233
Total = 480,974

Definitely picking up. Fairfax opens 13 more satellite sites on Thursday, so that should help top.

Interesting.  The 3 Dem NOVA CDs have huge chunk of outstanding mail ballots vs. everywhere else. 

[Skill and Chance]

As of 10/18
Early in person: 284,511
Mail ballots returned: 160,179
Total = 444,690

As of 10/19
Early in person: 309,741
Mail ballots returned: 171,233
Total = 480,974

Definitely picking up. Fairfax opens 13 more satellite sites on Thursday, so that should help top.

Interesting.  The 3 Dem NOVA CDs have huge chunk of outstanding mail ballots vs. everywhere else. 

Could just be mail is taking forever - Larry Sabato posted that he didn't even get his mail ballot until weeks after he requested it. Seems to be a particular issue in the NOVA area.

This will be interesting.  In Virginia, it looks like they can be handed in on election day if there isn't enough time to mail it back, and that voters who never receive them can vote provisionally in person on election day and it will be counted after they verify the absentee was never received.  Expect to see a surge of drop-offs day of and perhaps the weekend before if this remains a serious issue.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm confused.  That doesn't look like a terribly impressive impact statewide?