VA Early Voting #s
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October 16, 2021, 01:37:56 AM

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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  VA Early Voting #s
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Author Topic: VA Early Voting #s  (Read 2659 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #75 on: October 14, 2021, 11:03:00 AM »

It's also possible the mail is to blame again-

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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #76 on: October 14, 2021, 11:15:21 AM »

Right now some over and under performing counties (votes per 1,000 registered voters):

State Avg: 53.5

Henrico: 63.4

Albemarle: 66.5

Chesterfield: 62.5

Buchanan: 19.8

Lee: 17.5

Basically, NOVA being dragged down by few early voting sites at this point... will tick up tremendously when they open all sites in Fairfax. 

SW VA has shockingly low turnout in many (but not all of the counties). 

The turnout appears highest in big suburban counties OUTSIDE of NOVA.

The high turnout counties all seem like the type of counties that the nerds live in.
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Matty
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« Reply #77 on: October 14, 2021, 11:47:11 AM »

John Chauvilion over at jmc seems more pessimistic





Who knows what to believe.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #78 on: October 14, 2021, 12:10:38 PM »

Right now some over and under performing counties (votes per 1,000 registered voters):

State Avg: 53.5

Henrico: 63.4

Albemarle: 66.5

Chesterfield: 62.5

Buchanan: 19.8

Lee: 17.5

Basically, NOVA being dragged down by few early voting sites at this point... will tick up tremendously when they open all sites in Fairfax. 

SW VA has shockingly low turnout in many (but not all of the counties). 

The turnout appears highest in big suburban counties OUTSIDE of NOVA.

The high turnout counties all seem like the type of counties that the nerds live in.

With notable exceptions like Arlington and Fairfax.  But that's because of the number of early voting sites in NOVA right now.  So I caution everyone to note read into the numbers until the satellite sites open up next week.  Please ignore blue avatars promoting fake and/or dead wrong takes.  We saw how the CA recall went and how certain takes panned out.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #79 on: October 14, 2021, 12:18:30 PM »

Also don't forget that the 3 NOVA districts currently have the most mail in ballots that haven't yet been returned by far.  And again, that's for a very specific reason... When the satellite offices open up in NOVA the people will be able to just bring those ballots to the satellite office and drop them in a box.  When I was early voting last year I saw tons of people doing this.  You are going to see a huge bump not only in early voting but returned ballots when the satellite offices open up. 

I'm not saying this is going any better than normal for Democrats but it is going to plan.  And it's laughable that blue avatars are acting like the numbers so far are bad for Dems when the most Republican congressional district's numbers are lagging so bad that they are running at about 50% of each of the three NOVA districts.
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IíM GONNA TOOOOOOOOM
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« Reply #80 on: October 14, 2021, 12:51:47 PM »

I will wait until Fairfax County fully opens up its voting booths before arriving to further conclusions.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #81 on: October 14, 2021, 02:52:32 PM »

I appreciate JMC analysis but why anyone would compare this to 2020 is beyond me.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #82 on: October 14, 2021, 03:22:10 PM »

I appreciate JMC analysis but why anyone would compare this to 2020 is beyond me.

Well, it's better than comparing to 2017, but only barely!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #83 on: October 14, 2021, 05:58:31 PM »

This stuff is just really inconclusive. Compared to 2020, far less early votes, but also the pandemic has receded since then with vaccines and Virginia was never a big early vote state before that. So we can't just say that's necessarily bad for Democrats. As we know, the same pattern of Dems disproportionately voting early and R's voting on election day is going to continue, so that needs to be kept in mind in all early voting data. So we do know that more early vote (particularly mail-in) = better for Democrats and more election day = better for Republicans, we just don't know how Republican the election day is going to break given many Democrats who voted mail/early last year will probably vote on election day this year.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #84 on: October 15, 2021, 12:22:04 AM »

When did all of the advance in-person voting sites open in Fairfax in 2020? Was it earlier in the cycle or is it based on the same time-table as this year?
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #85 on: October 15, 2021, 09:43:43 AM »

When did all of the advance in-person voting sites open in Fairfax in 2020? Was it earlier in the cycle or is it based on the same time-table as this year?

They opened earlier in 2020 than they are opening this year.  According to this article they were already open at this point:

https://www.fox5dc.com/news/fairfax-county-expands-early-voting-sites

This is a huge thing that the blue avatars just gloss over.  Once the satellite sites open the early voting numbers in Fairfax and Alexandria are going to surge (my understanding is that some Alexandria residents actually vote in Fairfax).
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Duke of York
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« Reply #86 on: October 15, 2021, 10:21:31 AM »

https://twitter.com/justindotnet/status/1448974763863547905?s=20

Mayor of Alexandria says they have surpassed their total of early voters from 4 years ago.
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