VA Early Voting #s
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  VA Early Voting #s
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Author Topic: VA Early Voting #s  (Read 17638 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #75 on: October 14, 2021, 11:03:00 AM »

It's also possible the mail is to blame again-

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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #76 on: October 14, 2021, 11:15:21 AM »

Right now some over and under performing counties (votes per 1,000 registered voters):

State Avg: 53.5

Henrico: 63.4

Albemarle: 66.5

Chesterfield: 62.5

Buchanan: 19.8

Lee: 17.5

Basically, NOVA being dragged down by few early voting sites at this point... will tick up tremendously when they open all sites in Fairfax. 

SW VA has shockingly low turnout in many (but not all of the counties). 

The turnout appears highest in big suburban counties OUTSIDE of NOVA.

The high turnout counties all seem like the type of counties that the nerds live in.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #77 on: October 14, 2021, 11:47:11 AM »

John Chauvilion over at jmc seems more pessimistic





Who knows what to believe.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #78 on: October 14, 2021, 12:10:38 PM »

Right now some over and under performing counties (votes per 1,000 registered voters):

State Avg: 53.5

Henrico: 63.4

Albemarle: 66.5

Chesterfield: 62.5

Buchanan: 19.8

Lee: 17.5

Basically, NOVA being dragged down by few early voting sites at this point... will tick up tremendously when they open all sites in Fairfax. 

SW VA has shockingly low turnout in many (but not all of the counties). 

The turnout appears highest in big suburban counties OUTSIDE of NOVA.

The high turnout counties all seem like the type of counties that the nerds live in.

With notable exceptions like Arlington and Fairfax.  But that's because of the number of early voting sites in NOVA right now.  So I caution everyone to note read into the numbers until the satellite sites open up next week.  Please ignore blue avatars promoting fake and/or dead wrong takes.  We saw how the CA recall went and how certain takes panned out.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #79 on: October 14, 2021, 12:18:30 PM »

Also don't forget that the 3 NOVA districts currently have the most mail in ballots that haven't yet been returned by far.  And again, that's for a very specific reason... When the satellite offices open up in NOVA the people will be able to just bring those ballots to the satellite office and drop them in a box.  When I was early voting last year I saw tons of people doing this.  You are going to see a huge bump not only in early voting but returned ballots when the satellite offices open up. 

I'm not saying this is going any better than normal for Democrats but it is going to plan.  And it's laughable that blue avatars are acting like the numbers so far are bad for Dems when the most Republican congressional district's numbers are lagging so bad that they are running at about 50% of each of the three NOVA districts.
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THG
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« Reply #80 on: October 14, 2021, 12:51:47 PM »

I will wait until Fairfax County fully opens up its voting booths before arriving to further conclusions.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #81 on: October 14, 2021, 02:52:32 PM »

I appreciate JMC analysis but why anyone would compare this to 2020 is beyond me.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #82 on: October 14, 2021, 03:22:10 PM »

I appreciate JMC analysis but why anyone would compare this to 2020 is beyond me.

Well, it's better than comparing to 2017, but only barely!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #83 on: October 14, 2021, 05:58:31 PM »

This stuff is just really inconclusive. Compared to 2020, far less early votes, but also the pandemic has receded since then with vaccines and Virginia was never a big early vote state before that. So we can't just say that's necessarily bad for Democrats. As we know, the same pattern of Dems disproportionately voting early and R's voting on election day is going to continue, so that needs to be kept in mind in all early voting data. So we do know that more early vote (particularly mail-in) = better for Democrats and more election day = better for Republicans, we just don't know how Republican the election day is going to break given many Democrats who voted mail/early last year will probably vote on election day this year.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #84 on: October 15, 2021, 12:22:04 AM »

When did all of the advance in-person voting sites open in Fairfax in 2020? Was it earlier in the cycle or is it based on the same time-table as this year?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #85 on: October 15, 2021, 09:43:43 AM »

When did all of the advance in-person voting sites open in Fairfax in 2020? Was it earlier in the cycle or is it based on the same time-table as this year?

They opened earlier in 2020 than they are opening this year.  According to this article they were already open at this point:

https://www.fox5dc.com/news/fairfax-county-expands-early-voting-sites

This is a huge thing that the blue avatars just gloss over.  Once the satellite sites open the early voting numbers in Fairfax and Alexandria are going to surge (my understanding is that some Alexandria residents actually vote in Fairfax).
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Duke of York
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« Reply #86 on: October 15, 2021, 10:21:31 AM »

https://twitter.com/justindotnet/status/1448974763863547905?s=20

Mayor of Alexandria says they have surpassed their total of early voters from 4 years ago.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #87 on: October 17, 2021, 12:44:46 PM »


As of 10/13
Early in person: 216,272
Mail ballots returned: 128,144
Total = 344,416

As of 10/16
Early in person: 255,821
Mail ballots returned: 147,929
Total = 403,750
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #88 on: October 17, 2021, 02:57:43 PM »

If it's true that all the early voting sites were open at this point in 2020 but aren't yet this year, then I don't see why anyone is making any optimistic or pessimistic claims so far.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #89 on: October 17, 2021, 02:59:19 PM »

If it's true that all the early voting sites were open at this point in 2020 but aren't yet this year, then I don't see why anyone is making any optimistic or pessimistic claims so far.

Jumping to conclusions is one of the core competencies around here. Wink
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #90 on: October 17, 2021, 03:08:23 PM »

I've been keeping an eye on mail ballot requests and comparing them to 2017's outcome: 70% of requested mail ballots were actually returned in 2017.

While it's a bit different this year in terms of scope and therefore the return rate may vary, if we use that percentage in conjunction with the number of votes that have definitively been cast/returned, then roughly 530,000 votes are already "locked in" (20% of 2017 turnout).

Also sucks that VPAP apparently removed the vote method breakdown for 2017 from the site in lieu of that 2021 EV timeline.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #91 on: October 17, 2021, 05:19:03 PM »

If it's true that all the early voting sites were open at this point in 2020 but aren't yet this year, then I don't see why anyone is making any optimistic or pessimistic claims so far.

Well for most of the state it's an apples to apples comparison because the smaller counties tend to have one or two sites that are open throughout.  For big counties like Fairfax it's a big difference because the number of early voting sites quadruples soon.  So really what you are seeing is that Northern Virginia's numbers are going to surge next week but most of the rest of the state should just tick up slightly because we are getting closer to the election.  Making claims is fine as long as all of that is factored in.  Right now my gut tells me this election looks pretty typical and reflective of 2017 so I expect a pretty typical result (T-Mac by 7-8) despite what the polls say.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #92 on: October 18, 2021, 09:38:01 PM »

State avg. per 1000 voters: 68.4

Alexandria: 79.8

Arlington: 80.1

Fairfax: 60.7

Prince William: 75.9


Fairfax is pretty much single handedly bringing down the NOVA average.  This is because sites haven't opened county-wide and it's an enormous, very congested county.  This is why the hot takes about NOVA not turning out are completely wrong.  It's obvious that Fairfax is just an outlier right now.  But it happens to be a HUGE outlier that is dragging down the whole region's average.

However, more sites open on Oct. 21, so watch the numbers explode in a week.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #93 on: October 19, 2021, 05:15:34 AM »

State avg. per 1000 voters: 68.4

Alexandria: 79.8

Arlington: 80.1

Fairfax: 60.7

Prince William: 75.9


Fairfax is pretty much single handedly bringing down the NOVA average.  This is because sites haven't opened county-wide and it's an enormous, very congested county.  This is why the hot takes about NOVA not turning out are completely wrong.  It's obvious that Fairfax is just an outlier right now.  But it happens to be a HUGE outlier that is dragging down the whole region's average.

However, more sites open on Oct. 21, so watch the numbers explode in a week.

and given that post from the other thread, it appears the few Fairfax sites that ARE open are now seeing major lines since there's so few of them.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #94 on: October 19, 2021, 05:16:41 AM »


As of 10/16
Early in person: 255,821
Mail ballots returned: 147,929
Total = 403,750

As of 10/18
Early in person: 284,511
Mail ballots returned: 160,179
Total = 444,690
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #95 on: October 19, 2021, 12:17:45 PM »

State avg. per 1000 voters: 68.4

Alexandria: 79.8

Arlington: 80.1

Fairfax: 60.7

Prince William: 75.9


Fairfax is pretty much single handedly bringing down the NOVA average.  This is because sites haven't opened county-wide and it's an enormous, very congested county.  This is why the hot takes about NOVA not turning out are completely wrong.  It's obvious that Fairfax is just an outlier right now.  But it happens to be a HUGE outlier that is dragging down the whole region's average.

However, more sites open on Oct. 21, so watch the numbers explode in a week.

and given that post from the other thread, it appears the few Fairfax sites that ARE open are now seeing major lines since there's so few of them.

Yeah though I don't think that's a deterrent for most.  If you are driving 30+ minutes to go to the central voting site u probably don't mind waiting in line 40 mins.  There will be long lines at the satellite sites as well.  In 2020 I think I waited about 2-3 hours to vote early at a satellite site.  That's why I'm voting on Election Day this time.  There's no wait.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #96 on: October 19, 2021, 12:21:54 PM »


As of 10/16
Early in person: 255,821
Mail ballots returned: 147,929
Total = 403,750

As of 10/18
Early in person: 284,511
Mail ballots returned: 160,179
Total = 444,690

It's definitely picking up.  At this right we are probably looking at ~40,000-50,000 votes a day until Oct. 21 when satellite sites open, then you're probably looking at ~75,000-100,000 a day until Election Day.  Could easily hit 1.5 million before Election Day.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #97 on: October 20, 2021, 05:09:24 AM »


As of 10/18
Early in person: 284,511
Mail ballots returned: 160,179
Total = 444,690

As of 10/19
Early in person: 309,741
Mail ballots returned: 171,233
Total = 480,974

Definitely picking up. Fairfax opens 13 more satellite sites on Thursday, so that should help top.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #98 on: October 20, 2021, 06:59:39 AM »


As of 10/18
Early in person: 284,511
Mail ballots returned: 160,179
Total = 444,690

As of 10/19
Early in person: 309,741
Mail ballots returned: 171,233
Total = 480,974

Definitely picking up. Fairfax opens 13 more satellite sites on Thursday, so that should help top.

Interesting.  The 3 Dem NOVA CDs have huge chunk of outstanding mail ballots vs. everywhere else. 
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #99 on: October 20, 2021, 07:05:45 AM »


As of 10/18
Early in person: 284,511
Mail ballots returned: 160,179
Total = 444,690

As of 10/19
Early in person: 309,741
Mail ballots returned: 171,233
Total = 480,974

Definitely picking up. Fairfax opens 13 more satellite sites on Thursday, so that should help top.

Interesting.  The 3 Dem NOVA CDs have huge chunk of outstanding mail ballots vs. everywhere else. 

Could just be mail is taking forever - Larry Sabato posted that he didn't even get his mail ballot until weeks after he requested it. Seems to be a particular issue in the NOVA area.
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