VA Early Voting #s

[wbrocks67]

As of 9/28:
In-person early votes: 80,351
Mail ballots received: 41,255
Total = 121,606

Nearly 40K more votes in 2 days, thins starting to ramp up.

As of 9/29:

Voted in-person: 90,490
Mail ballots received: 49,296
Total: 139,786

[Non Swing Voter]

One reason VA-9 is so low is because it's quite literally much less populated than the NOVA districts, especially VA-10.

[Adam Griffin]

One reason VA-9 is so low is because it's quite literally much less populated than the NOVA districts, especially VA-10.

Yeah, this is a good point. Should probably take the total EV, divide it by 11 and then see proportionally how it compares. These are the adjusted 2020 pop estimates from DRA. In a perfectly-balanced world, CD-10 should have ~25% more EVs than CD-09.

2020 Equalized CD Pop:
768562 (100.00%)

CD-10:   115.24%
CD-01:   107.60%
CD-07:   106.25%
CD-11:   104.91%
CD-08:   103.91%
CD-04:   102.39%
CD-06:   99.44%
CD-03:   98.69%
CD-02:   97.86%
CD-05:   96.15%
CD-09:   90.74%

From a bird's eye glance (based on returned and requested ballots), CD 8 is overperforming the most, followed by CDs 11, 10 & 7. Even with CD 9 being the smallest, it's still vastly underperforming compared to the others based on population alone. CD 3 appears to be the second-worst, so there is a partisan correlation here - with some variance (see: CD 3).

2020 EV Avg by CD (9/29):
30336 (100.00%)

CD-08:   129.06%
CD-10:   121.09%
CD-11:   119.67%
CD-07:   117.16%
CD-01:   107.60%
CD-04:   95.40%
CD-05:   91.74%
CD-02:   88.67%
CD-06:   86.99%
CD-03:   82.58%
CD-09:   60.02%

[wbrocks67]

As of 9/29:

Voted in-person: 90,490
Mail ballots received: 49,296
Total: 139,786

As of 10/3
Early voting in person: 112,692
Mail ballots returned: 67,112
Total: 179,804

[SnowLabrador]

Numbers seem sluggish. Alarm bells should be going off for Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

Numbers seem sluggish. Alarm bells should be going off for Democrats.

Virginia isn't a huge early vote/mail vote type of state, though. Especially since this is only the second cycle they've even really done it.

[kingcharlesvii]

How do these numbers compare to 2017?

[It’s so Joever]

Numbers seem sluggish. Alarm bells should be going off for Democrats.

Compared to what?

[Skill and Chance]

How do these numbers compare to 2017?

N/A because VA was excuse-only absentee back then.

[Virginiá]

Even if they have full early voting now, it won't be a useful metric for at least a few cycles, or however long it takes voters to start using it more. Virginia long had really bare minimum voter access conveniences, so it's going to take a while for people to break old habits and start getting comfortable with the many more options they have to vote.

[Adam Griffin]

We can still compare just to illustrate that there's no reason to panic about turnout being low relative to what happened four years ago.

2017 Total EV Ballots Cast (11/7): 195634
2021 Total EV Ballots Cast (10/3): 181571

2017 Total EV + Unreturned VBM (11/7): 226343
2021 Total EV + Unreturned VBM (10/3): 367141

So actual cast ballots are already almost on par with total 2017 EV turnout - with a month to go. These ratios are fairly similar for both in-person vote (96% of 2017's total) and returned mail ballots (88%).

There are currently 6x the number of unreturned ballots/outstanding requests than there ended up being at the end in 2017 (186k vs 31k). Looks like around 70% of mail ballot requests were returned in 2017; if that proportion holds for this year, then we're already looking at >300k "banked" EVs (compared to 226k total in 2017).

[Skill and Chance]

Total EV continues to be dominated by the 3 NOVA Dem districts, plus the heavily college+ R districts VA-01 and VA-07 (which was a bare Biden 2020/Kaine 2018 win, but otherwise votes R). VA-06 (safe R, Shenandoah Valley) is fading and VA-04 (the closer and more rural of the 2 VRA seats) is rapidly gaining.  VA-08 (inner NOVA, most Dem district in the state post-Obama) is now in the overall lead including mail request

[Non Swing Voter]

Numbers seem sluggish. Alarm bells should be going off for Democrats.

In big counties like Fairfax (a) the mail is somewhat slow and (b) they don't have precincts everywhere.  I'm not driving to the central location.  It would take an hour.  Also, NOVA is turning out higher than the rest of the state.  I think we need to wait a few weeks before there's a real concern.

[Non Swing Voter]

it does seem like there's been a bit of an uptick this week.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1445889529718587395

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1445889529718587395

Republicans getting marginal improvement among hispanics in places like the Rio Grande was a terrible trade off versus their precipitous decline among college educated whites.  And I expect that to be noticeable in the midterms...

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/3
Early voting in person: 112,692
Mail ballots returned: 67,112
Total: 179,804

As of 10/6:
Early voting in person: 135,076
Mail ballots returned: 87,209
Total: 222,285

[Non Swing Voter]

In two weeks you will see early voting turnout surge in NOVA because that's when big counties like Fairfax open many additional early voting sites.  It is too time consuming to drive in traffic in FFX to a central site.  There are only 3 now.  There will be 13 additional ones in 2 weeks.

[Non Swing Voter]

early in person votes: 145,784

early mail ballots: 93,516

[SnowLabrador]

early in person votes: 145,784

early mail ballots: 93,516

Who is that good for?

[Non Swing Voter]

early in person votes: 145,784

early mail ballots: 93,516

Who is that good for?

I think it's too early to tell.  I want to see the numbers in a few weeks.  I don't agree with some election gurus on twitter (who shall remain nameless but have made historically inaccurate predictions) who claim that early voting numbers mean nothing.  Especially in VA where there is a huge regional divide.  Dems will vote in greater numbers early, that's a given, so I think the turnout matters because we know turnout will be a lot lower than a Presidential year so locking in votes now is a pretty big deal.

[Bootes Void]

early in person votes: 145,784

early mail ballots: 93,516

Who is that good for?

No one can honestly know because EV is new to VA so you have nothing to compare it to

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1445889529718587395

I am standing with my 7-9% win prediction for McAuliffe, this is not going to be close. The MAGAs sit out the off year non Trump elections while college educated whites vote more consistently.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1445889529718587395

I am standing with my 7-9% win prediction for McAuliffe, this is not going to be close. The MAGAs sit out the off year non Trump elections while college educated whites vote more consistently.

Correct.  I think people here are going to be shocked at the midterm results for this reason.  The consequence to the GOP tanking in UMC suburbs is off-year elections are no longer to their advantage.

[Non Swing Voter]

The context to look at these early vote numbers is in where it's coming from mostly.  For Youngkin to win he needs to change the makeup of the electorate.  Namely, NOVA needs to be a smaller share than usual.  As long as NOVA keeps pace he cannot win.  NOVA will probably early vote at a higher rate than statewide, so this means it would be "good" for Youngkin if NOVA is just keeping pace with the rest of the state.  So far that doesn't appear to be the case.  It appears to be outperforming in terms of total votes and ballot requests.  But I expect the gap to widen when more early vote locations open in Fairfax.  So right now I'd say the numbers look like a typical VA electorate.  In a couple of weeks the answer will be more clear.