If the GOP doesn't flip a single "blue" senate seat or governorship, will you be surprised?

[sg0508]

There's actually a possibility of the Republicans not flipping any democratic statehouses and senate seats this year. If that happens and they essentially get swept, would that surprise you? Forget the environment for a second, but if you believe any polls (and polls this year are suggesting Democratic supporters could be underrepresented from the one-off elections), the Democrats could have a sweep.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No. But I won't be surprised if they do manage to either.

[wesmoorenerd]

I wouldn't be stunned, but I would be mildly surprised.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

They should be able to win Kansas at the very least, possibly even Nevada or Wisconsin. Not taking anything would be very bad.

[ProgressiveModerate]

They should be able to win Kansas at the very least, possibly even Nevada or Wisconsin. Not taking anything would be very bad.

It'd also mean Dems would be in a better position on the state level than 2018 and arguably since 2010.

While Dems will prolly get the default flips of MA and MD, I rlly don't know how much that matters in reality because both their R govs were pretty moderate and the D supermajority legislatures had full control when they wanted it.

If Dems gain AZ and lose KS, I'd still say that's a slight improvement for Dems since there's no way the GOP is winning a supermajority in the AZ legislature, especially if Dems are winning statewide.

It's really funny how Dems being in such a poor position in legislatures to begin with means they aren't really defending much on that front (though neither is the GOP). Infact, I wouldn't be suprised if no chambers flip other than the AK House.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map anyways

[MATTROSE94]

Kind of. I currently have the Republicans winning Wisconsin, Kansas, Nevada, Mew Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Maine, but losing Maryland and Massachusetts.

[Mr.Phips]

They should be able to win Kansas at the very least, possibly even Nevada or Wisconsin. Not taking anything would be very bad.

It'd also mean Dems would be in a better position on the state level than 2018 and arguably since 2010.

While Dems will prolly get the default flips of MA and MD, I rlly don't know how much that matters in reality because both their R govs were pretty moderate and the D supermajority legislatures had full control when they wanted it.

If Dems gain AZ and lose KS, I'd still say that's a slight improvement for Dems since there's no way the GOP is winning a supermajority in the AZ legislature, especially if Dems are winning statewide.

It's really funny how Dems being in such a poor position in legislatures to begin with means they aren't really defending much on that front (though neither is the GOP). Infact, I wouldn't be suprised if no chambers flip other than the AK House.

I’d be very surprised if Republicans didn’t flip the MN House given that Dems only have a 70-64 margin there and have a handful of retirements and highly vulnerable incumbents in Trump districts outstate that alone would flip the chamber.  I’m thinking Republicans probably flip the ME House as well.

[ProgressiveModerate]

They should be able to win Kansas at the very least, possibly even Nevada or Wisconsin. Not taking anything would be very bad.

It'd also mean Dems would be in a better position on the state level than 2018 and arguably since 2010.

While Dems will prolly get the default flips of MA and MD, I rlly don't know how much that matters in reality because both their R govs were pretty moderate and the D supermajority legislatures had full control when they wanted it.

If Dems gain AZ and lose KS, I'd still say that's a slight improvement for Dems since there's no way the GOP is winning a supermajority in the AZ legislature, especially if Dems are winning statewide.

It's really funny how Dems being in such a poor position in legislatures to begin with means they aren't really defending much on that front (though neither is the GOP). Infact, I wouldn't be suprised if no chambers flip other than the AK House.

I’d be very surprised if Republicans didn’t flip the MN House given that Dems only have a 70-64 margin there and have a handful of retirements and highly vulnerable incumbents in Trump districts outstate that alone would flip the chamber.  I’m thinking Republicans probably flip the ME House as well.

There are also quite a few Biden district Rs who's seat got pulled in further to MSP. But ye the Iron Range may really cost Dems in the end. The median seat was like Biden + 3 or smtg so def not impossible Dems hold.

Given how tiny ME Lower Chamber seats are, a lot of those races may come down to some very local issues that even the best Atlas poster would have no idea about. Assuming the tossup races break about 50-50 it'll be very tight!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kind of. I currently have the Republicans winning Wisconsin, Kansas, Nevada, Mew Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Maine, but losing Maryland and Massachusetts.

That must be where the cool cats live.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They wont

[Mr.Phips]

They should be able to win Kansas at the very least, possibly even Nevada or Wisconsin. Not taking anything would be very bad.

It'd also mean Dems would be in a better position on the state level than 2018 and arguably since 2010.

While Dems will prolly get the default flips of MA and MD, I rlly don't know how much that matters in reality because both their R govs were pretty moderate and the D supermajority legislatures had full control when they wanted it.

If Dems gain AZ and lose KS, I'd still say that's a slight improvement for Dems since there's no way the GOP is winning a supermajority in the AZ legislature, especially if Dems are winning statewide.

It's really funny how Dems being in such a poor position in legislatures to begin with means they aren't really defending much on that front (though neither is the GOP). Infact, I wouldn't be suprised if no chambers flip other than the AK House.

I’d be very surprised if Republicans didn’t flip the MN House given that Dems only have a 70-64 margin there and have a handful of retirements and highly vulnerable incumbents in Trump districts outstate that alone would flip the chamber.  I’m thinking Republicans probably flip the ME House as well.

There are also quite a few Biden district Rs who's seat got pulled in further to MSP. But ye the Iron Range may really cost Dems in the end. The median seat was like Biden + 3 or smtg so def not impossible Dems hold.

Given how tiny ME Lower Chamber seats are, a lot of those races may come down to some very local issues that even the best Atlas poster would have no idea about. Assuming the tossup races break about 50-50 it'll be very tight!

Yes, any Dem majority in the MN House is going to require Dems to defeat at least a couple of Biden district Republicans.

I still can’t believe that Dems lost the North Mankato/St Peter seat in 2020 even as Biden was winning it.  That seat wasn’t even ancestrally Republican.

[Coldstream]

I’m still pretty sure they’ll win Kansas, but nowhere else. So I’d be surprised - though not shocked.

[Hope For A New Era]

Not really, no. It's not the most likely outcome, but it's a plausible one and has been since the beginning.

[Figueira]

Not really. The Democratic governors in swing states (and Kansas) are all running for re-election, and incumbents are typically hard to beat. The Senate seats are all winnable for Democrats.

[DS0816]

It's a 303 map anyways

Can you explain?

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's a 303 map anyways

Can you explain?

Don't bother. We either aren't dumb or smart enough to understand Olawakandi's reasoning or even his existence. He is an enigma that we all love, but know better than to try and converse with.

[2016]

Republicans have a very good chance flipping Wisconsin Governor. Tim Michels visisted Kenosha a week or so ago, the Site of those massiv ungodly and unneccessary violent protests in 2020.

And Bidens Speech last Night was right into the wheelhouse of Michels. Evers did nothing to condem the rioting & looting in 2020 and Michels made what happened there in 2020 central to his Campaign. I think there is now more than 50/50 Chance Evers goes down.

[Xing]

I’d be quite surprised if they couldn’t even flip Kansas, let alone a few more.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Some of the people eagerly predicting a flip in Wisconsin should keep in mind that one of the independents in the race is running on a decidedly MAGA-friendly platform. If it really does come down to the usual Wisconsin ultra-close race, that's a factor that could potentially advantage Evers.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Some of the people eagerly predicting a flip in Wisconsin should keep in mind that one of the independents in the race is running on a decidedly MAGA-friendly platform. If it really does come down to the usual Wisconsin ultra-close race, that's a factor that could potentially advantage Evers.

So far though, that Third Party seems to be taking from Evers and is possibly the main reason why he's under-performing Barnes in polling. Wisconsinites being polled don't seem to be aware of who they actually are...or maybe they do? I just can't fathom Barnes/Beglinger voters. Then again this is also the state that gave us a significant number of Clinton/Johnson voters and Baldwin/Walker voters. I will never understand ticket-splitters in general...

[DPKdebator]

Biden’s in better shape than he was a few months ago, but I think a lot of pundits are overestimating how much this will really help Dems. He’s still decently underwater, and I suspect much of the recovery is from liberal skeptics of Joe who like his climate bill and student loan debt cancellation.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden’s in better shape than he was a few months ago, but I think a lot of pundits are overestimating how much this will really help Dems. He’s still decently underwater, and I suspect much of the recovery is from liberal skeptics of Joe who like his climate bill and student loan debt cancellation.

That's almost certainly the case, but his relative unpopularity seems somewhat irrelevant to Democrats running across the country. It would spell a wave based on a referendum on his presidency if Democrats were down everywhere, but the fact that individual races seem to be happening in vacuums within their own districts/states suggests he isn't as tethered to down-ballot Democrats as Trump was (and probably still is) in 2018.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

They should be able to win Kansas at the very least, possibly even Nevada or Wisconsin. Not taking anything would be very bad.

It'd also mean Dems would be in a better position on the state level than 2018 and arguably since 2010.

While Dems will prolly get the default flips of MA and MD, I rlly don't know how much that matters in reality because both their R govs were pretty moderate and the D supermajority legislatures had full control when they wanted it.

If Dems gain AZ and lose KS, I'd still say that's a slight improvement for Dems since there's no way the GOP is winning a supermajority in the AZ legislature, especially if Dems are winning statewide.

It's really funny how Dems being in such a poor position in legislatures to begin with means they aren't really defending much on that front (though neither is the GOP). Infact, I wouldn't be suprised if no chambers flip other than the AK House.

I’d be very surprised if Republicans didn’t flip the MN House given that Dems only have a 70-64 margin there and have a handful of retirements and highly vulnerable incumbents in Trump districts outstate that alone would flip the chamber.  I’m thinking Republicans probably flip the ME House as well.

There are also quite a few Biden district Rs who's seat got pulled in further to MSP. But ye the Iron Range may really cost Dems in the end. The median seat was like Biden + 3 or smtg so def not impossible Dems hold.

Given how tiny ME Lower Chamber seats are, a lot of those races may come down to some very local issues that even the best Atlas poster would have no idea about. Assuming the tossup races break about 50-50 it'll be very tight!

Yes, any Dem majority in the MN House is going to require Dems to defeat at least a couple of Biden district Republicans.

I still can’t believe that Dems lost the North Mankato/St Peter seat in 2020 even as Biden was winning it.  That seat wasn’t even ancestrally Republican.

I was surprised by that too. But upon a precinct result breakdown it looks like the Republican had some personal vote in St. Peter. She still lost it by a lot but ran well enough that the rural areas were enough to overcome the margin.

Regardless that'll be a tough one to hold with Walz leading the ticket. Biden won that seat by 2.8 points. Walz in 2018 did by over 18 points.

[iceman]

seems like that’s what’s going to happen on November 8. Right now, I am actually thinking that the GOP does well in the blue states but falls short in all of them to win a single Gov. seat. All recent polls point to the DEMS holding on to their governorships even in Oregon and Wisconsin. But they would underperform in TX, GA and FL though.