Rate every county in your state

[100% pro-life no matter what]

TN:
Safe D: Davidson, Shelby
Tossup: Haywood
Safe R: Everything Else

Relative to the statewide margin:
Safe D: Davidson, Shelby, Haywood
Likely D: Hamilton, Knox, Montgomery, Madison
Lean D: Rutherford, Hardeman
Lean R: Williamson
Likely R: Lauderdale
Safe R: Everything Else

[Calthrina950]

Using 2020 as a basis, and rating counties for the gubernatorial election:

Safe D: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Costilla, Denver, Eagle, Gunnison, Jefferson, La Plata, Lake, Larimer, Ouray, Pitkin, Routt, Saguache, San Juan, San Miguel, Summit.

Likely D: Chaffee, Gilpin.

Lean D: Garfield, Pueblo.

Tossup: Alamosa, Grand, Huerfano.

Lean R: Conejos, Douglas, Las Animas.

Likely R: El Paso.

Safe R: The remainder.

The above assumes that Polis wins by double digits, and by more than Biden did in 2020. In terms of a firm map, I believe Polis will win all the counties that Biden did, in addition to Alamosa and Huerfano (which he carried in 2018) and Grand (where Biden lost by less than 2%).

[Tekken_Guy]

NJ has no statewide races so I'll do congress.

Safe R: Cape May, Hunterdon, Ocean, Salem, Sussex, Warren
Likely R: Monmouth
Lean R: Morris
Toss-up: Atlantic, Cumberland, Gloucester
Likely D: Bergen, Burlington, Passaic, Somerset
Safe D: Camden, Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, Union

[GeorgiaModerate]

159 counties?  I got better things to do.

[Hope For A New Era]

For the two statewide races this year-

Safe D: St. Louis City, St. Louis County, Boone, Jackson

Tossup: Platte, Clay

Safe R: Everything else
(Safe R but the R is unlikely to exceed a 2/3 majority of the vote: St. Charles, Buchanan, Adair, Cass, Cole)


Missouri is pretty boring politically these days.


One note about the two Tossup counties is that Clay has historically voted to the left of Platte, but in 2020 this reversed for the first time, and I expect it to be repeated this year. Both counties are moving left, but Platte is doing it faster and will go farther. This reflects an educational and cultural difference between the two counties. (Though don't take this to mean there's "a divide" between them - the whole area north of the river has a pretty unified identity as "The Northland").

[bagelman]

Gub:

Lean D: Cuyahoga, Franklin, Athens

Tossup: Lucas, Hamilton

Lean R: Summit

Safe R: All others

Sen: https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=i2vb Something like that.

Congressional: Various northwestern counties from above moved to tossup, Stark/Lake/Clark all Safe R.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

159 counties?  I got better things to do.

Anderson County, TX Safe R
Andrews County, TX Safe R
Angelina County, TX Safe R
Aransas County, TX Safe R
Archer County, TX Safe R
Armstrong County, TX Safe R
Atascosa County, TX Safe R
Austin County, TX Safe R
Bailey County, TX Safe R
Bandera County, TX Safe R
Bastrop County, TX Safe R
Baylor County, TX Safe R
Bee County, TX Safe R
Bell County, TX Safe R
Bexar County, TX Safe D
Blanco County, TX Safe R
Borden County, TX Safe R
Bosque County, TX Safe R
Bowie County, TX Safe R
Brazoria County, TX Safe R
Brazos County, TX Safe R
Brewster County, TX Safe R
Briscoe County, TX Safe R
Brooks County, TX Safe D
Brown County, TX Safe R
Burleson County, TX Safe R
Burnet County, TX Safe R
Caldwell County, TX Safe R
Calhoun County, TX Safe R
Callahan County, TX Safe R
Cameron County, TX Safe D
Camp County, TX Safe R
Carson County, TX Safe R
Cass County, TX Safe R
Castro County, TX Safe R
Chambers County, TX Safe R
Cherokee County, TX Safe R
Childress County, TX Safe R
Clay County, TX Safe R
Cochran County, TX Safe R
Coke County, TX Safe R
Coleman County, TX Safe R
Collin County, TX Tossup
Collingsworth County, TX Safe R
Colorado County, TX Safe R
Comal County, TX Safe R
Comanche County, TX Safe R
Concho County, TX Safe R
Cooke County, TX Safe R
Coryell County, TX Safe R
Cottle County, TX Safe R
Crane County, TX Safe R
Crockett County, TX Safe R
Crosby County, TX Safe R
Culberson County, TX Likely D
Dallam County, TX Safe R
Dallas County, TX Safe D
Dawson County, TX Safe R
De Witt County, TX Safe R
Deaf Smith County, TX Safe R
Delta County, TX Safe R
Denton County, TX Lean R
Dickens County, TX Safe R
Dimmit County, TX Likely D
Donley County, TX Safe R
Duval County, TX Lean D
Eastland County, TX Safe R
Ector County, TX Safe R
Edwards County, TX Safe R
El Paso County, TX Safe D
Ellis County, TX Safe R
Erath County, TX Safe R
Falls County, TX Safe R
Fannin County, TX Safe R
Fayette County, TX Safe R
Fisher County, TX Safe R
Floyd County, TX Safe R
Foard County, TX Safe R
Fort Bend County, TX Likely D
Franklin County, TX Safe R
Freestone County, TX Safe R
Frio County, TX Safe R
Gaines County, TX Safe R
Galveston County, TX Likely R
Garza County, TX Safe R
Gillespie County, TX Safe R
Glasscock County, TX Safe R
Goliad County, TX Safe R
Gonzales County, TX Safe R
Gray County, TX Safe R
Grayson County, TX Safe R
Gregg County, TX Safe R
Grimes County, TX Safe R
Guadalupe County, TX Safe R
Hale County, TX Safe R
Hall County, TX Safe R
Hamilton County, TX Safe R
Hansford County, TX Safe R
Hardeman County, TX Safe R
Hardin County, TX Safe R
Harris County, TX Safe D
Harrison County, TX Safe R
Hartley County, TX Safe R
Haskell County, TX Safe R
Hays County, TX Likely D
Hemphill County, TX Safe R
Henderson County, TX Safe R
Hidalgo County, TX Likely D
Hill County, TX Safe R
Hockley County, TX Safe R
Hood County, TX Safe R
Hopkins County, TX Safe R
Houston County, TX Safe R
Howard County, TX Safe R
Hudspeth County, TX Safe R
Hunt County, TX Safe R
Hutchinson County, TX Safe R
Irion County, TX Safe R
Jack County, TX Safe R
Jackson County, TX Safe R
Jasper County, TX Safe R
Jeff Davis County, TX Safe R
Jefferson County, TX Safe R
Jim Hogg County, TX Tossup
Jim Wells County, TX Safe R
Johnson County, TX Safe R
Jones County, TX Safe R
Karnes County, TX Safe R
Kaufman County, TX Safe R
Kendall County, TX Safe R
Kenedy County, TX Safe R
Kent County, TX Safe R
Kerr County, TX Safe R
Kimble County, TX Safe R
King County, TX Safe R
Kinney County, TX Safe R
Kleberg County, TX Safe R
Knox County, TX Safe R
La Salle County, TX Likely R
Lamar County, TX Safe R
Lamb County, TX Safe R
Lampasas County, TX Safe R
Lavaca County, TX Safe R
Lee County, TX Safe R
Leon County, TX Safe R
Liberty County, TX Safe R
Limestone County, TX Safe R
Lipscomb County, TX Safe R
Live Oak County, TX Safe R
Llano County, TX Safe R
Loving County, TX Safe R
Lubbock County, TX Safe R
Lynn County, TX Safe R
Madison County, TX Safe R
Marion County, TX Safe R
Martin County, TX Safe R
Mason County, TX Safe R
Matagorda County, TX Safe R
Maverick County, TX Likely D
McCulloch County, TX Safe R
McLennan County, TX Safe R
McMullen County, TX Safe R
Medina County, TX Safe R
Menard County, TX Safe R
Midland County, TX Safe R
Milam County, TX Safe R
Mills County, TX Safe R
Mitchell County, TX Safe R
Montague County, TX Safe R
Montgomery County, TX Safe R
Moore County, TX Safe R
Morris County, TX Safe R
Motley County, TX Safe R
Nacogdoches County, TX Safe R
Navarro County, TX Safe R
Newton County, TX Safe R
Nolan County, TX Safe R
Nueces County, TX Likely R
Ochiltree County, TX Safe R
Oldham County, TX Safe R
Orange County, TX Safe R
Palo Pinto County, TX Safe R
Panola County, TX Safe R
Parker County, TX Safe R
Parmer County, TX Safe R
Pecos County, TX Safe R
Polk County, TX Safe R
Potter County, TX Safe R
Presidio County, TX Safe R
Rains County, TX Safe R
Randall County, TX Safe R
Reagan County, TX Safe R
Real County, TX Safe R
Red River County, TX Safe R
Reeves County, TX Safe R
Refugio County, TX Safe R
Roberts County, TX Safe R
Robertson County, TX Safe R
Rockwall County, TX Safe R
Runnels County, TX Safe R
Rusk County, TX Safe R
Sabine County, TX Safe R
San Augustine County, TX Safe R
San Jacinto County, TX Safe R
San Patricio County, TX Safe R
San Saba County, TX Safe R
Schleicher County, TX Safe R
Scurry County, TX Safe R
Shackelford County, TX Safe R
Shelby County, TX Safe R
Sherman County, TX Safe R
Smith County, TX Safe R
Somervell County, TX Safe R
Starr County, TX Lean D
Stephens County, TX Safe R
Sterling County, TX Safe R
Stonewall County, TX Safe R
Sutton County, TX Safe R
Swisher County, TX Safe R
Tarrant County, TX Likely D
Taylor County, TX Safe R
Terrell County, TX Safe R
Terry County, TX Safe R
Throckmorton County, TX Safe R
Titus County, TX Safe R
Tom Green County, TX Safe R
Travis County, TX Safe D
Trinity County, TX Safe R
Tyler County, TX Safe R
Upshur County, TX Safe R
Upton County, TX Safe R
Uvalde County, TX Likely R (out of an abundance of caution - I dunno how the shooting will influence voting here, but Abbott should still win)
Val Verde County, TX Safe R
Van Zandt County, TX Safe R
Victoria County, TX Safe R
Walker County, TX Safe R
Waller County, TX Safe R
Ward County, TX Safe R
Washington County, TX Safe R
Webb County, TX Safe R
Wharton County, TX Safe R
Wheeler County, TX Safe R
Wichita County, TX Safe R
Wilbarger County, TX Safe R
Willacy County, TX Likely D
Williamson County, TX Lean D
Wilson County, TX Safe R
Winkler County, TX Safe R
Wise County, TX Safe R
Wood County, TX Safe R
Yoakum County, TX Safe R
Young County, TX Safe R
Zapata County, TX Safe R
Zavala County, TX Safe D

A (somewhat incomplete) rating of all Texas counties in this gubernatorial election.   Some errors are to be expected. Enjoy.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

159 counties?  I got better things to do.

Anderson County, TX Safe R
Andrews County, TX Safe R
Angelina County, TX Safe R
Aransas County, TX Safe R
Archer County, TX Safe R
Armstrong County, TX Safe R
Atascosa County, TX Safe R
Austin County, TX Safe R
Bailey County, TX Safe R
Bandera County, TX Safe R
Bastrop County, TX Safe R
Baylor County, TX Safe R
Bee County, TX Safe R
Bell County, TX Safe R
Bexar County, TX Safe D
Blanco County, TX Safe R
Borden County, TX Safe R
Bosque County, TX Safe R
Bowie County, TX Safe R
Brazoria County, TX Safe R
Brazos County, TX Safe R
Brewster County, TX Safe R
Briscoe County, TX Safe R
Brooks County, TX Safe D
Brown County, TX Safe R
Burleson County, TX Safe R
Burnet County, TX Safe R
Caldwell County, TX Safe R
Calhoun County, TX Safe R
Callahan County, TX Safe R
Cameron County, TX Safe D
Camp County, TX Safe R
Carson County, TX Safe R
Cass County, TX Safe R
Castro County, TX Safe R
Chambers County, TX Safe R
Cherokee County, TX Safe R
Childress County, TX Safe R
Clay County, TX Safe R
Cochran County, TX Safe R
Coke County, TX Safe R
Coleman County, TX Safe R
Collin County, TX Tossup
Collingsworth County, TX Safe R
Colorado County, TX Safe R
Comal County, TX Safe R
Comanche County, TX Safe R
Concho County, TX Safe R
Cooke County, TX Safe R
Coryell County, TX Safe R
Cottle County, TX Safe R
Crane County, TX Safe R
Crockett County, TX Safe R
Crosby County, TX Safe R
Culberson County, TX Likely D
Dallam County, TX Safe R
Dallas County, TX Safe D
Dawson County, TX Safe R
De Witt County, TX Safe R
Deaf Smith County, TX Safe R
Delta County, TX Safe R
Denton County, TX Lean R
Dickens County, TX Safe R
Dimmit County, TX Likely D
Donley County, TX Safe R
Duval County, TX Lean D
Eastland County, TX Safe R
Ector County, TX Safe R
Edwards County, TX Safe R
El Paso County, TX Safe D
Ellis County, TX Safe R
Erath County, TX Safe R
Falls County, TX Safe R
Fannin County, TX Safe R
Fayette County, TX Safe R
Fisher County, TX Safe R
Floyd County, TX Safe R
Foard County, TX Safe R
Fort Bend County, TX Likely D
Franklin County, TX Safe R
Freestone County, TX Safe R
Frio County, TX Safe R
Gaines County, TX Safe R
Galveston County, TX Likely R
Garza County, TX Safe R
Gillespie County, TX Safe R
Glasscock County, TX Safe R
Goliad County, TX Safe R
Gonzales County, TX Safe R
Gray County, TX Safe R
Grayson County, TX Safe R
Gregg County, TX Safe R
Grimes County, TX Safe R
Guadalupe County, TX Safe R
Hale County, TX Safe R
Hall County, TX Safe R
Hamilton County, TX Safe R
Hansford County, TX Safe R
Hardeman County, TX Safe R
Hardin County, TX Safe R
Harris County, TX Safe D
Harrison County, TX Safe R
Hartley County, TX Safe R
Haskell County, TX Safe R
Hays County, TX Likely D
Hemphill County, TX Safe R
Henderson County, TX Safe R
Hidalgo County, TX Likely D
Hill County, TX Safe R
Hockley County, TX Safe R
Hood County, TX Safe R
Hopkins County, TX Safe R
Houston County, TX Safe R
Howard County, TX Safe R
Hudspeth County, TX Safe R
Hunt County, TX Safe R
Hutchinson County, TX Safe R
Irion County, TX Safe R
Jack County, TX Safe R
Jackson County, TX Safe R
Jasper County, TX Safe R
Jeff Davis County, TX Safe R
Jefferson County, TX Safe R
Jim Hogg County, TX Tossup
Jim Wells County, TX Safe R
Johnson County, TX Safe R
Jones County, TX Safe R
Karnes County, TX Safe R
Kaufman County, TX Safe R
Kendall County, TX Safe R
Kenedy County, TX Safe R
Kent County, TX Safe R
Kerr County, TX Safe R
Kimble County, TX Safe R
King County, TX Safe R
Kinney County, TX Safe R
Kleberg County, TX Safe R
Knox County, TX Safe R
La Salle County, TX Likely R
Lamar County, TX Safe R
Lamb County, TX Safe R
Lampasas County, TX Safe R
Lavaca County, TX Safe R
Lee County, TX Safe R
Leon County, TX Safe R
Liberty County, TX Safe R
Limestone County, TX Safe R
Lipscomb County, TX Safe R
Live Oak County, TX Safe R
Llano County, TX Safe R
Loving County, TX Safe R
Lubbock County, TX Safe R
Lynn County, TX Safe R
Madison County, TX Safe R
Marion County, TX Safe R
Martin County, TX Safe R
Mason County, TX Safe R
Matagorda County, TX Safe R
Maverick County, TX Likely D
McCulloch County, TX Safe R
McLennan County, TX Safe R
McMullen County, TX Safe R
Medina County, TX Safe R
Menard County, TX Safe R
Midland County, TX Safe R
Milam County, TX Safe R
Mills County, TX Safe R
Mitchell County, TX Safe R
Montague County, TX Safe R
Montgomery County, TX Safe R
Moore County, TX Safe R
Morris County, TX Safe R
Motley County, TX Safe R
Nacogdoches County, TX Safe R
Navarro County, TX Safe R
Newton County, TX Safe R
Nolan County, TX Safe R
Nueces County, TX Likely R
Ochiltree County, TX Safe R
Oldham County, TX Safe R
Orange County, TX Safe R
Palo Pinto County, TX Safe R
Panola County, TX Safe R
Parker County, TX Safe R
Parmer County, TX Safe R
Pecos County, TX Safe R
Polk County, TX Safe R
Potter County, TX Safe R
Presidio County, TX Safe R
Rains County, TX Safe R
Randall County, TX Safe R
Reagan County, TX Safe R
Real County, TX Safe R
Red River County, TX Safe R
Reeves County, TX Safe R
Refugio County, TX Safe R
Roberts County, TX Safe R
Robertson County, TX Safe R
Rockwall County, TX Safe R
Runnels County, TX Safe R
Rusk County, TX Safe R
Sabine County, TX Safe R
San Augustine County, TX Safe R
San Jacinto County, TX Safe R
San Patricio County, TX Safe R
San Saba County, TX Safe R
Schleicher County, TX Safe R
Scurry County, TX Safe R
Shackelford County, TX Safe R
Shelby County, TX Safe R
Sherman County, TX Safe R
Smith County, TX Safe R
Somervell County, TX Safe R
Starr County, TX Lean D
Stephens County, TX Safe R
Sterling County, TX Safe R
Stonewall County, TX Safe R
Sutton County, TX Safe R
Swisher County, TX Safe R
Tarrant County, TX Likely D
Taylor County, TX Safe R
Terrell County, TX Safe R
Terry County, TX Safe R
Throckmorton County, TX Safe R
Titus County, TX Safe R
Tom Green County, TX Safe R
Travis County, TX Safe D
Trinity County, TX Safe R
Tyler County, TX Safe R
Upshur County, TX Safe R
Upton County, TX Safe R
Uvalde County, TX Likely R (out of an abundance of caution - I dunno how the shooting will influence voting here, but Abbott should still win)
Val Verde County, TX Safe R
Van Zandt County, TX Safe R
Victoria County, TX Safe R
Walker County, TX Safe R
Waller County, TX Safe R
Ward County, TX Safe R
Washington County, TX Safe R
Webb County, TX Safe R
Wharton County, TX Safe R
Wheeler County, TX Safe R
Wichita County, TX Safe R
Wilbarger County, TX Safe R
Willacy County, TX Likely D
Williamson County, TX Lean D
Wilson County, TX Safe R
Winkler County, TX Safe R
Wise County, TX Safe R
Wood County, TX Safe R
Yoakum County, TX Safe R
Young County, TX Safe R
Zapata County, TX Safe R
Zavala County, TX Safe D

A (somewhat incomplete) rating of all Texas counties in this gubernatorial election.   Some errors are to be expected. Enjoy.

Likely D Tarrant? More like Likely R...

[seskoog]

I'm going to do MI since that's where I live the majority of the year.
Alcona: Safe R
Alger: Likely R
Allegan: Safe R
Alpena: Safe R
Antrim: Safe R
Arenac: Safe R
Baraga: Safe R
Barry: Safe R
Bay: Lean R
Benzie: Likely R
Berrien: Likely R
Branch: Safe R
Calhoun: Likely R
Cass: Safe R
Charlevoix: Safe R
Cheboygan: Safe R
Chippewa: Safe R
Clare: Safe R
Clinton: Tossup/Tilt D
Crawford: Safe R
Delta: Safe R
Dickinson: Safe R
Eaton: Lean D
Emmet: Likely R
Genesee: Safe D
Gladwin: Safe R
Gogebic: Lean R
Grand Traverse: Tossup/Tilt D
Gratiot: Safe R
Hillsdale: Safe R
Houghton: Likely R
Huron: Safe R
Ingham: Safe D
Ionia: Safe R
Iosco: Safe R
Iron: Safe R
Isabella: Tossup/Tilt R
Jackson: Safe R
Kalamazoo: Safe D
Kalkaska: Safe R
Kent: Likely D
Keweenaw: Safe R
Lake: Safe R
Lapeer: Safe R
Leelanau: Likely D
Lenawee: Safe R
Livingston: Safe R
Luce: Safe R
Mackinac: Safe R
Macomb: Tossup/Tilt R
Manistee: Likely R
Marquette: Safe D
Mason: Safe R
Mecosta: Safe R
Menominee: Safe R
Midland: Safe R
Missaukee: Safe R
Monroe: Safe R
Montcalm: Safe R
Montmorency: Safe R
Muskegon: Likely D
Newaygo: Safe R
Oakland: Safe D
Oceana: Safe R
Ogemaw: Safe R
Ontonagon: Safe R
Osceola: Safe R
Oscoda: Safe R
Otsego: Safe R
Ottawa: Safe R
Presque Isle: Safe R
Roscommon: Safe R
Saginaw: Likely D
St Clair: Safe R
St Joseph: Safe R
Sanilac: Safe R
Schoolcraft: Safe R
Shiawassee: Likely R
Tuscola: Safe R
Van Buren: Likely R
Washtenaw: Safe D
Wayne: Safe D
Wexford: Safe R

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

159 counties?  I got better things to do.

[TEXAS SIZED COLLECTION OF COUNTIES]

A (somewhat incomplete) rating of all Texas counties in this gubernatorial election.   Some errors are to be expected. Enjoy.

Likely D Tarrant? More like Likely R...

This assumes a race that is in low single digits for Abbott. The DFW area has significantly worse trends for Rs than the state overall does.
If the margin is bigger, the rating changes very quickly. Remember, this only refers to the ultimate winner, regardless of the margin.
The race seems to have moved a bit away from Beto since. That, on the margin, could very quickly change some of these counties' ratings.

[Real Texan Politics]

159 counties?  I got better things to do.

[snip]

A (somewhat incomplete) rating of all Texas counties in this gubernatorial election.   Some errors are to be expected. Enjoy.

Probably should’ve just rated the ones that aren’t safe R.

[iceman]

Safe D - Broward, Leon, Gadsden, Alachua

Likely D - Orange

Lean D - Palm Beach

Tossup - Hillsborough

Lean R - Miami-Dade

Likely R - Pinellas, Duval, Seminole, Osceola

Safe R - rest of the state

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

159 counties?  I got better things to do.

[snip]

A (somewhat incomplete) rating of all Texas counties in this gubernatorial election.   Some errors are to be expected. Enjoy.

Probably should’ve just rated the ones that aren’t safe R.

Probably would have saved me time. But it wouldn't have been as good of a meme either. I was trying to one-up GeorgiaModerate by a) doing a state that had even more counties and b) by taking the whole thing completely seriously.

[jamestroll]

For the two statewide races this year-

Safe D: St. Louis City, St. Louis County, Boone, Jackson

Tossup: Platte, Clay

Safe R: Everything else
(Safe R but the R is unlikely to exceed a 2/3 majority of the vote: St. Charles, Buchanan, Adair, Cass, Cole)


Missouri is pretty boring politically these days.


One note about the two Tossup counties is that Clay has historically voted to the left of Platte, but in 2020 this reversed for the first time, and I expect it to be repeated this year. Both counties are moving left, but Platte is doing it faster and will go farther. This reflects an educational and cultural difference between the two counties. (Though don't take this to mean there's "a divide" between them - the whole area north of the river has a pretty unified identity as "The Northland").

I think Platte and Clay could be single digits, but they are effectively Safe R.

Relative to state.. they will be dem of course !

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

For 2022 Senate: Rand Paul vs Charles Booker

Safe D: Jefferson and Fayette
Tossup (Tilt D): Franklin
Safe R: Everything else

[Real Texan Politics]

Safe D - Broward, Leon, Gadsden, Alachua

Likely D - Orange

Lean D - Palm Beach

Tossup - Hillsborough

Lean R - Miami-Dade

Likely R - Pinellas, Duval, Seminole, Osceola

Safe R - rest of the state

Likely R Osceola is bold. Which race are you referring to?

[EternalOptimistPopulist]

Safe D - Philadelphia, Allegheny, Delaware, Montgomery, Chester
Likely D - Lehigh, Centre
Lean D -  Dauphin, Lackawanna, Monroe, Bucks
Tossup - Erie, Northampton
Lean R - Berks
Safe R - Rest of State

[Aurelius]

Safe D - Philadelphia, Allegheny, Delaware, Montgomery, Chester
Likely D - Lehigh, Centre
Lean D -  Dauphin, Lackawanna, Monroe, Bucks
Tossup - Erie, Northampton
Lean R - Berks
Safe R - Rest of State

Welcome to the forum!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Safe D - Philadelphia, Allegheny, Delaware, Montgomery, Chester
Likely D - Lehigh, Centre
Lean D -  Dauphin, Lackawanna, Monroe, Bucks
Tossup - Erie, Northampton
Lean R - Berks
Safe R - Rest of State

Welcome to the forum!

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Safe D: Genessee, Ingham, Kalamazoo, Marquette, Oakland, Washtenaw, Wayne
Lean / Likely D: Kent, Leelanau, Muskegon, Saginaw
Tossup: Eaton, Isabella
Lean / Likely R: Bay, Clinton, Gogebic, Grand Traverse, Macomb
Safe R: Everything else

This is roughly what a mid-single digits Whitmer win would look like.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Shades don't represent percentages but rather likeliness of victory:

[Schiff for Senate]

TN:
Safe D: Davidson, Shelby
Tossup: Haywood
Safe R: Everything Else

Relative to the statewide margin:
Safe D: Davidson, Shelby, Haywood
Likely D: Hamilton, Knox, Montgomery, Madison
Lean D: Rutherford, Hardeman
Lean R: Williamson
Likely R: Lauderdale
Safe R: Everything Else

This is easy when you're in a state like TN and much harder when you're in a state like CA lol.

As far as your general ratings for TN go, though - 100% agree on all 92 Safe Red counties (it's notable that despite significantly outperforming Clinton/Biden, even Phil Bredesen in 2018 couldn't crack a single one of the 92 Trump counties), and obviously on Davidson/Shelby, but I feel like (I could be wrong) Haywood is, like, Lean D at least. Doesn't it still go D by decent margins? It's also majority black and given how racially polarised the south is, unless Lee wins by a massive, massive amount (like, closer to Haslam 2014 than Lee 2018), I feel like it would stay blue by a decent enough margin, no?

[Schiff for Senate]

Safe D - Philadelphia, Allegheny, Delaware, Montgomery, Chester
Likely D - Lehigh, Centre
Lean D -  Dauphin, Lackawanna, Monroe, Bucks
Tossup - Erie, Northampton
Lean R - Berks
Safe R - Rest of State

Welcome to the forum!

Given the Doug Mastriano endorsement in the signature, I'm not too inclined to be too welcoming to this new arrival myself...

[100% pro-life no matter what]

TN:
Safe D: Davidson, Shelby
Tossup: Haywood
Safe R: Everything Else

Relative to the statewide margin:
Safe D: Davidson, Shelby, Haywood
Likely D: Hamilton, Knox, Montgomery, Madison
Lean D: Rutherford, Hardeman
Lean R: Williamson
Likely R: Lauderdale
Safe R: Everything Else

This is easy when you're in a state like TN and much harder when you're in a state like CA lol.

As far as your general ratings for TN go, though - 100% agree on all 92 Safe Red counties (it's notable that despite significantly outperforming Clinton/Biden, even Phil Bredesen in 2018 couldn't crack a single one of the 92 Trump counties), and obviously on Davidson/Shelby, but I feel like (I could be wrong) Haywood is, like, Lean D at least. Doesn't it still go D by decent margins? It's also majority black and given how racially polarised the south is, unless Lee wins by a massive, massive amount (like, closer to Haslam 2014 than Lee 2018), I feel like it would stay blue by a decent enough margin, no?

Haywood was only Biden +9, and I suspect Lee will win by a 2:1 margin or so, as opposed to Trump's 23 point win.  A likely uniform swing would have Haywood close to tied.  It's possible you're right that it goes for Martin because it's polarized and less elastic than some of the suburban areas that could see Lee significantly outrun Trump.

[Schiff for Senate]

TN:
Safe D: Davidson, Shelby
Tossup: Haywood
Safe R: Everything Else

Relative to the statewide margin:
Safe D: Davidson, Shelby, Haywood
Likely D: Hamilton, Knox, Montgomery, Madison
Lean D: Rutherford, Hardeman
Lean R: Williamson
Likely R: Lauderdale
Safe R: Everything Else

This is easy when you're in a state like TN and much harder when you're in a state like CA lol.

As far as your general ratings for TN go, though - 100% agree on all 92 Safe Red counties (it's notable that despite significantly outperforming Clinton/Biden, even Phil Bredesen in 2018 couldn't crack a single one of the 92 Trump counties), and obviously on Davidson/Shelby, but I feel like (I could be wrong) Haywood is, like, Lean D at least. Doesn't it still go D by decent margins? It's also majority black and given how racially polarised the south is, unless Lee wins by a massive, massive amount (like, closer to Haslam 2014 than Lee 2018), I feel like it would stay blue by a decent enough margin, no?

Haywood was only Biden +9, and I suspect Lee will win by a 2:1 margin or so, as opposed to Trump's 23 point win.  A likely uniform swing would have Haywood close to tied.  It's possible you're right that it goes for Martin because it's polarized and less elastic than some of the suburban areas that could see Lee significantly outrun Trump.

As you yourself said, places like Hamilton and Rutherford and Davidson and Shelby will have stronger Trump-to-Lee swings than rural areas (and I suspect even if Lee does outdo Trump by 10 statewide, there will be plenty of rural counties where he outruns Trump by much less, and/or a few where Trump does better than Lee) + I could be wrong, obviously (and you do know more about TN’s politics than I, as well), but I don’t know why Lee would win by so much anyway.