What if: NJ/VA end up same as 2017

[wbrocks67]

Given that CA recall looks to be pretty close to 2018 (smidge higher), what would you think of the outlook if the NJ/VA races end up similar to 2017, despite having Biden in office instead of Trump?

[Duke of York]

Democrats have finally solved their midterm turnout problem.

[Xing]

It tells us everything about 2022 unless it doesn't.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is the most likely scenario.  I doubt the results are more than 2 points off in either direction unless Youngkin makes anymore blunders.  T-Mac has not sufficiently capitalized on Youngkins latest leaked audio.  I am hoping he's just saving that for down the line (which is the right strategy) but if he doesn't rip Youngkin harder than the most likely scenario is a repeat of 2017. 

If it's the same as 2017 then it means the electorate is too locked in for huge movement next year and that both the senate and house are a coin toss.  I actually think Dems have slightly better odds in the senate next year in that scenario because the map is a bit more favorable to them.  They have pickup opportunities in a number of Biden states.

But even if the results are exactly the same as 2017, I want to see where the votes are coming from.  You could have a situation where the GOP is not getting the rural turnout it needs but that is offset by very slight gains in wealthy suburbs.  That would be telling as well. 

In particular, the VA/NJ races will tell us a whole lot about PA because the electorate there is very similar.  NOVA is like the Philly suburbs.  New Jersey has cities that are a lot like the Philly electorate.  All three are in the mid-atlantic region.   

[Flyersfan232]

This is the most likely scenario.  I doubt the results are more than 2 points off in either direction unless Youngkin makes anymore blunders.  T-Mac has not sufficiently capitalized on Youngkins latest leaked audio.  I am hoping he's just saving that for down the line (which is the right strategy) but if he doesn't rip Youngkin harder than the most likely scenario is a repeat of 2017. 

If it's the same as 2017 then it means the electorate is too locked in for huge movement next year and that both the senate and house are a coin toss.  I actually think Dems have slightly better odds in the senate next year in that scenario because the map is a bit more favorable to them.  They have pickup opportunities in a number of Biden states.

But even if the results are exactly the same as 2017, I want to see where the votes are coming from.  You could have a situation where the GOP is not getting the rural turnout it needs but that is offset by very slight gains in wealthy suburbs.  That would be telling as well. 

In particular, the VA/NJ races will tell us a whole lot about PA because the electorate there is very similar.  NOVA is like the Philly suburbs.  New Jersey has cities that are a lot like the Philly electorate.  All three are in the mid-atlantic region.   

Expect the Philly Subs” don’t control the entire state in election.

[Bootes Void]

not much other than 2022 might not be a republican "wave" election but it doesnt mean that they cant back control by narrow margins

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would be more than okay with that. And while it may not entirely tell us everything about 2022, it does offer a glimmer of hope that Democrats haven't fallen back asleep and that white college-educated voters are in fact here to stay in the Democratic Party and can be increasingly relied upon.

 In fact, with New Jersey specifically, that may very well be what happens again. Murphy will probably be re-elected by little less than 13%, and probably no more than 15%.

[THG]

I expect Murphy to perform similarly to 2017, but T-Mac to underperform 2017 by a couple of points.

If T-Mac matches Northam's 2017 performance, I'd say it should set off some alarm bells for the GOP, even if it isn't a DEFCON 1 scenario by any means.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls in NJ and VA are moving R due to Biden agenda being stalked in the Congress, D's are gonna need a huge GOTV effort in VA early voting if T Mac needs to win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A Govt Shutdown of it last until Nov will be bad for T Mac

[2016]

I expect Murphy to perform similarly to 2017, but T-Mac to underperform 2017 by a couple of points.

If T-Mac matches Northam's 2017 performance, I'd say it should set off some alarm bells for the GOP, even if it isn't a DEFCON 1 scenario by any means.

I don't think McAuliffe will match the Northam Numbers from 2017. The most likely scenario is that his Numbers will be more in line with his 2013 Numbers when he narrowly beat Ken Cuccinelli by 2-3 Points.

McAuliffe won 2013 47.8 to 45.2

[THG]

I expect Murphy to perform similarly to 2017, but T-Mac to underperform 2017 by a couple of points.

If T-Mac matches Northam's 2017 performance, I'd say it should set off some alarm bells for the GOP, even if it isn't a DEFCON 1 scenario by any means.

I don't think McAuliffe will match the Northam Numbers from 2017. The most likely scenario is that his Numbers will be more in line with his 2013 Numbers when he narrowly beat Ken Cuccinelli by 2-3 Points.

McAuliffe won 2013 47.8 to 45.2

I could see this occurring if not for the fact that Virginia has gotten far bluer since 2013. I'd wager on McAwful winning by 4-6.