NJ-Monmouth: Murphy +13 among RVs, +9/+14 among electorate models

[Devils30]

I bet it will be the usual 56-41 New Jersey election but I expect some movement from 2017 in certain regions. Pretty sure Murphy will do considerably better in Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris but much worse in Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland.

[Devils30]

I bet it will be the usual 56-41 New Jersey election but I expect some movement from 2017 in certain regions. Pretty sure Murphy will do considerably better in Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris but much worse in Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland.

Can you see Murphy winning Hunterdon? That would be a shock, winning Christie Whitman's county, home of the rich and the farms.......

It's a political realignment....Gloucester/Salem/Cumberland are WWC Republican-leaning places now and the wealthy Somerset/Hunterdon/Morris, once the base of the NJGOP is now Democratic-leaning now...

I doubt Hunterdon flips, usually NJ areas first flip at the top of the ticket. I would think if Dems win in 2024 then it's possible Hunterdon flips. Places like Hunterdon, Hamilton/IN, Delaware/OH, Fayette/GA, Denton + Collin/TX seem like the last step of the realignment. Of course Lackawanna/PA, Muskegon/MI, Portage/WI, Carlton/MN cut the other way as well.

[Devils30]

I bet it will be the usual 56-41 New Jersey election but I expect some movement from 2017 in certain regions. Pretty sure Murphy will do considerably better in Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris but much worse in Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland.

100% agreed. Murphy might even do better in Monmouth too. And Atlantic might be among the South Jersey realignment too, of the counties moving away from the Democrats.

I don't think any counties flip in the end though, other than Morris maybe.

There is no chance Murphy carries Morris County. It has changed A LOT clearly, but it's not going to flip. He will do better there than Salem County.

There's definitely a chance, only lost it by 8 in 2017 and that election was more of a 2012 throwback in terms of coalitions.