Why Is the German election going to be awful for AFD
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  Why Is the German election going to be awful for AFD
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Author Topic: Why Is the German election going to be awful for AFD  (Read 1289 times)
thebeloitmoderate
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« on: September 21, 2021, 07:56:08 PM »

In case if you don't know it is a hard right anti migrant Eurosceptic party in Germany
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Hnv1
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2021, 02:20:52 AM »

Immigration less of an issue, they went bonkers about vaccinations, internal infighting pretty much left them as a consolidated group for nutters.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2021, 06:26:05 AM »

They will still be almost certainly the 5th biggest party (ahead of Die Linke)

The threat has gone into remission, but not disappeared.
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2021, 06:35:27 AM »

The AfD had the hegemony on the political discourse after 2015 - they were the only party to channel a widespread complete hostility towards refugees. Basically, every decision made by other parties was made with the underlying consideration of whether it might help or hurt the AfD, which is why CDU and CSU shifted significantly rightwards on migration policy--it has become a truism within the Union that "A situation like 2015 shall never happen again"--and the SPD, FDP and even Linke had deep internal discussions about how to handle the situation. None of the reactions were really sufficient, which is why the AfD achieved 12.6% at the last parliamentary election.

Somewhere between 2017 and 2021, the AfD--and the political right overall--had lost the hegemony on the political discourse. This is one aspect of the AfD's struggle to grow. As Hnv1 said, migration is not really an issue today. The top two issues are climate change, on which the AfD represents a deeply unpopular stance, and Covid, on which the AfD's stance is even more unpopular. The party is unable to moderate because, between 2017 and 2021, it has further radicalized to the right. This is also a reason why the party is unable to grow further: It is extremely toxic and supports stances and politicians that are held in wide contempt by the German public. Those ideas and people were there pre-2017, yes, but it was an extra-parliamentary opposition party then. There sure was the expectation by some that once the party has entered the institutions, it would moderate and learn how to play by the rules. It did not, and so the party is very uninteresting for many German voters: It is a right-wing party which has become so extremist and possibleyunconstitutional that German intelligence agencies are deliberating whether it should be surveilled (as some state branches already are!), they are utterly unable to produce a coherent policy proposal because there is deep party infighting, and they can't even get stuff done in parliament.
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Santander
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2021, 11:35:27 AM »

Immigration less of an issue, they went bonkers about vaccinations, internal infighting pretty much left them as a consolidated group for nutters patriots.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2021, 11:50:53 AM »

The party is unable to moderate because, between 2017 and 2021, it has further radicalized to the right. This is also a reason why the party is unable to grow further: It is extremely toxic and supports stances and politicians that are held in wide contempt by the German public. Those ideas and people were there pre-2017, yes, but it was an extra-parliamentary opposition party then. There sure was the expectation by some that once the party has entered the institutions, it would moderate and learn how to play by the rules. It did not, and so the party is very uninteresting for many German voters: It is a right-wing party which has become so extremist and possibleyunconstitutional that German intelligence agencies are deliberating whether it should be surveilled (as some state branches already are!), they are utterly unable to produce a coherent policy proposal because there is deep party infighting, and they can't even get stuff done in parliament.

It's telling that Bernd Lucke lost a power struggle in the party to Frauke Petry back in 2015 and two years later both of them were out of the party because it was too extreme to tolerate either of them.
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2021, 03:35:37 PM »

Immigration less of an issue, they went bonkers about vaccinations, internal infighting pretty much left them as a consolidated group for nutters patriots.


Hahahaha no they're really not
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2021, 03:49:12 AM »

I don't think that almost holding your vote share can and being established as a party with a staunch voter base, that will almost always get you above 5 per cent everywhere can be described as an "awful result", although the times, where there was no way to go but up, are over, hopefully.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2021, 03:58:26 AM »

Immigration less of an issue, they went bonkers about vaccinations, internal infighting pretty much left them as a consolidated group for nutters patriots.

I will wager that you never met any of the AfD Bauern or took a stroll in Marzhan or Chemnitz
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vitoNova
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2021, 04:43:04 AM »

Easy.  Because I lived and worked throughout that entire so-called "migrant crisis" in Germany in the  2010s and I can say that it was vastly overblown.

I've never seen so many white people in my life. 
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2021, 03:19:17 PM »

I don't think that almost holding your vote share can and being established as a party with a staunch voter base, that will almost always get you above 5 per cent everywhere can be described as an "awful result", although the times, where there was no way to go but up, are over, hopefully.

It definitely is. The AfD is politically impotent and will never join any government. They will get their 10%, sure, but that's complete meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

For a party that wanted to 'hunt down' (Gauland) the establishment, that is (and must be) extremely disappointing. Especially as Germany is rapidly becoming more multicultural and socially liberal.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2021, 02:04:52 AM »
« Edited: September 24, 2021, 02:52:35 AM by Yeahsayyeah »


It definitely is. The AfD is politically impotent and will never join any government. They will get their 10%, sure, but that's complete meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

For a party that wanted to 'hunt down' (Gauland) the establishment, that is (and must be) extremely disappointing. Especially as Germany is rapidly becoming more multicultural and socially liberal.

But that's more due to shifts in the importance of issues and politcal culture adapting then an election result itself, that won't be too bad for them. I'm not too sure at the "they will never join any government" part, especially in the East. In difference to other right wing parties, that rode protest waves, they clearly have established themselves uniting the camps of Nazis, right-wing-populists, cynical market radicals and protest voters. They will clearly stay and ride the waves of backlashes against liberal democracy and diverse society, especially in the more down-trodden parts of this country. Demography will help us a bit, but they have enough youth following to not vanish, even in the long term. You are surely more optimistic, here, than I am.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2021, 06:14:25 AM »
« Edited: September 24, 2021, 06:20:33 AM by It's morning again in America »

Immigration less of an issue, they went bonkers about vaccinations, internal infighting pretty much left them as a consolidated group for nutters patriots.


The AfD is very much conflicted about patriotism. For instance, past statements by Alexander Gauland and Beatrix von Storch indicate that they hate the German national soccer team because it isn't Aryan enough. Zhe AfD doesn't love Germany, they love the Germany that existed back in 1950... and in some cases perhaps even earlier, give that von Storch tries to emulate her grandfather, Hitler's minister of finance.
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thebeloitmoderate
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2021, 04:50:27 PM »

If AFD and Die Linke were American counterparts it would obliviously be the Trump faction of the GOP and for the latter the Bernie/AOC faction of the democratic party. CDU and SPD is pretty much the Manchin faction of the Democrat party or the Larry Hogan/kinziger faction of the GOP and liberal (not progressive) faction of the Democrat party.
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2021, 07:20:16 AM »

If AFD and Die Linke were American counterparts it would obliviously be the Trump faction of the GOP and for the latter the Bernie/AOC faction of the democratic party. CDU and SPD is pretty much the Manchin faction of the Democrat party or the Larry Hogan/kinziger faction of the GOP and liberal (not progressive) faction of the Democrat party.

This is not accurate at all
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2021, 09:51:56 AM »

If AFD and Die Linke were American counterparts it would obliviously be the Trump faction of the GOP and for the latter the Bernie/AOC faction of the democratic party. CDU and SPD is pretty much the Manchin faction of the Democrat party or the Larry Hogan/kinziger faction of the GOP and liberal (not progressive) faction of the Democrat party.

Almost impressive for such a detailed post to be wrong in almost every particular Smiley
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thebeloitmoderate
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2021, 12:10:06 PM »

I know! Comparing German political parties to US parties is like comparing water to soda! May be the same but actually different. AFD is mostly right though comparing it to The Trump faction of the GOP post Trump presidency. Far right, against COVID-19 restrictions, against (but not all opposed) to getting vaccines, against refugees though not as hardcore as it was in 2015-18 for AFD and 2017-18 for GOP
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parochial boy
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« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2021, 01:04:59 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2021, 01:08:45 PM by parochial boy »

Bernie Sanders would be in the FDP in Germany

*nods sagely and then beats self over the head with a brick*
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thebeloitmoderate
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« Reply #18 on: October 25, 2021, 03:20:56 PM »

Bernie Sanders would be in the FDP in Germany

*nods sagely and then beats self over the head with a brick*
lol
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2021, 10:32:24 AM »

It is often identified as a problem for parties of that ilk that they fall under the thumb of a single powerful leader with little time for party democracy and expects all internal matters to be little more than rubber stamping their own agenda. The afd kind of reflects what happens if this figure isn't present, because these central figures, even the ones with absolutely no interest in moderation like Geert Wilders, are constantly purging their parties of non aligned figures and tendencies. The AfD has no Farage or Le Pen with universal support amongst the memberbase, just a bunch of ephemeral political hacks.
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thebeloitmoderate
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« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2021, 11:00:03 AM »

It is often identified as a problem for parties of that ilk that they fall under the thumb of a single powerful leader with little time for party democracy and expects all internal matters to be little more than rubber stamping their own agenda. The afd kind of reflects what happens if this figure isn't present, because these central figures, even the ones with absolutely no interest in moderation like Geert Wilders, are constantly purging their parties of non aligned figures and tendencies. The AfD has no Farage or Le Pen with universal support amongst the memberbase, just a bunch of ephemeral political hacks.
Even Fidesz and Law And Justice have Orban and Kaczynski who mostly have support amongst their member bases but loathed across the liberal opposition but they are never going to moderate those 2 parties. Just look at their leaders 2 frequent feuds with the European Union. And orban's pandemic powers make him look like a more democratically version of Putin and Lukashenko
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2021, 07:09:53 AM »

It is often identified as a problem for parties of that ilk that they fall under the thumb of a single powerful leader with little time for party democracy and expects all internal matters to be little more than rubber stamping their own agenda. The afd kind of reflects what happens if this figure isn't present, because these central figures, even the ones with absolutely no interest in moderation like Geert Wilders, are constantly purging their parties of non aligned figures and tendencies. The AfD has no Farage or Le Pen with universal support amongst the memberbase, just a bunch of ephemeral political hacks.
Even Fidesz and Law And Justice have Orban and Kaczynski who mostly have support amongst their member bases but loathed across the liberal opposition but they are never going to moderate those 2 parties. Just look at their leaders 2 frequent feuds with the European Union. And orban's pandemic powers make him look like a more democratically version of Putin and Lukashenko

Not that much, though.
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