IA - Selzer/DMR: Grassley +18% over Finkenauer with outright majority of vote

[Spectator]

This is going to be funny. I can’t imagine Finkenauer actually thinking she has a chance. If she does, that just shows you how delusional or narcissistic politicians can be.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Grassley will win this even if the Iowa GOP have to very obviously pull a 'Weekend at Bernie's' for him.

[Cyrusman]

Watch the DNC blow 10-20 million on the race.

[SnowLabrador]

It's going to be a bigger red wave than 2010. Iowa is a red state, yes, but it's not this red unless it's going to be a red wave of Biblical proportions.

[DrScholl]

This is going to be funny. I can’t imagine Finkenauer actually thinking she has a chance. If she does, that just shows you how delusional or narcissistic politicians can be.

It is a democracy so everyone who wants to run has the right to run. Grassley shouldn't be elevated to Kim Jong Un status just because people online have some weird need to make memes about him or because he's elderly. The increasingly cult like attitude and love people have for Republican politicians is sickening.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's going to be a bigger red wave than 2010. Iowa is a red state, yes, but it's not this red unless it's going to be a red wave of Biblical proportions.

You think it's a red wave  Grassley was always safe but he's not winning by 18 PT's

[Biden his time]

When do you all reckon the Populist Fikenarr surge occurs?

[S019]

It's going to be a bigger red wave than 2010. Iowa is a red state, yes, but it's not this red unless it's going to be a red wave of Biblical proportions.

You think it's a red wave  Grassley was always safe but he's not winning by 18 PT's

Biden is -30 right now in Iowa lol, if anything, the undecideds probably lean Grassley.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's going to be a bigger red wave than 2010. Iowa is a red state, yes, but it's not this red unless it's going to be a red wave of Biblical proportions.

You think it's a red wave  Grassley was always safe but he's not winning by 18 PT's

Biden is -30 right now in Iowa lol, if anything, the undecideds probably lean Grassley.

..

This is one poll, stop taking one poll, it's 14 mnths til the Election

Biden Legislation us stalked in Congress due to R obstruction and Sinema and Manchin won't change the Filibuster
.

There is a Govt shutdown pending due to Debt Ceiling, voters are anxious..I wouldn't donate to IA but I would root for Fink

[S019]

It's going to be a bigger red wave than 2010. Iowa is a red state, yes, but it's not this red unless it's going to be a red wave of Biblical proportions.

You think it's a red wave  Grassley was always safe but he's not winning by 18 PT's

Biden is -30 right now in Iowa lol, if anything, the undecideds probably lean Grassley.

..

This is one poll, stop taking one poll, it's 14 mnths til the Election

Biden Legislation us stalked in Congress due to R obstruction and Sinema and Manchin won't change the Filibuster

It's also Iowa, this honestly gives me IA 2016 vibes, Grassley draws a decent opponent, but they still get blown out.

[MT Treasurer]

When do you all reckon the Populist Fikenarr surge occurs?

"What’s the break-even price for soybeans in Iowa, Senator? You grew up on a farm. You should know this."



Ernst needed an unprecedented retail campaigning blitzkrieg to survive the ensuing fallout from Soybeangate and win by the margin she eventually won by, but old out-of-touch D.C. Geezer Grass isn’t even a member of the Senate Motorcycle Caucus...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

VA did in 2009 and we lost in 2010 and we are ahead its a 304 map anyways unless we lose WI

CA is not VA.

We are gonna win NH and NV, those states lagged behind Hassan beat Ayotte in 2016 on Election night and so did SISOLAK and Rosen whom were all trailing up until the Election

And this matters why?

Don't underestimate Tim Ryan and Jeff Jackson that's why I still am predicting a Ryan and Jeff Jackson win, if Beshear won on R KY and Ryan looks like Beshear just like Kelly can win on KS we can have in 14 mnths a 54/46 S and 222/216 H and DC and PR Statehood, Barnes, Fetterman, Ryan all said they aren't for Crt packing but get rid of Fillibuster for DC Statehood, amid Covid cases going down if Biden passes his Infrastructure and Reconciliation with a 2.5T pricetag and lift the Debt Ceiling

Governors and Senate races are different.

If you couldn't win NC Senate in 2020, your chances of doing so in 2022 are much slimmer with a worse environment, cyclical politics working against you and no Thom Tillis (who has no charisma and wreaks of Charlotte banker come to take your house) to run against.

There are 12(25% Blk in OH and NC unlike IA and DeSantis and Rubio got a Surfside bump

We also have wave insurance candidates in Ben Downing, Bill Walker in AK and Beshear can win reelection in 2023 and Hobbs in AZ.
IA has 3% Afro Americans

Ah yes, the old "this time will defy gravity and we will gain seats" even as Biden's Presidency is a train wreck and things haven't gotten better so far bc "they be better next year for sure and Biden gonna get big bounce and Dems gain Senate seats".

"Oh so many times, have I heard this line..."

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

When do you all reckon the Populist Fikenarr surge occurs?

"What’s the break-even price for soybeans in Iowa, Senator? You grew up on a farm. You should know this."



Ernst needed an unprecedented retail campaigning blitzkrieg to survive the ensuing fallout from Soybeangate and win by the margin she eventually won by, but old out-of-touch D.C. Geezer Grass isn’t even a member of the Senate Motorcycle Caucus...

Woof!

https://twitter.com/RABAresearch/status/1322695513746165760

Good times!

[President Johnson]

Safe Republican, as expected.

A shame voters chose this bland old fellow over an ambitious young woman with good ideas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the Rs like Indy Rep that thought Fink was unbeatable are backtrack and say IA is safe R, she lost last time

Lesson you don't run retread candidates that lost if she lost in 2020, don't run her again

[progressive85]

Old Chuck will die in the Senate at the age of 109.  After which the grandson or the nephew (I honestly don't care which one) becomes the next Senator from Iowa.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This lead is inflated, Grassley isn't winning by 20, but 10 yes

[OSR stands with Israel]

I admit that f Biden doesn't get his 4.7T dollar package and Manchin and Sinema won't increase Debt Ceiling  or vote over 2T thru Reconciliation D's will lose next yr, but if Biden does get his massive spending bill D's can win 54 seats and 222 J seats and win DC statehood


All Manchin and Sinema has to do is make Rs do a standing Filibuster and Rs would relent and they said they are open to do it on VR and they can do it on Debt ceiling too

Lol the Election is 14 Mnths away, we won't win IA but other states with huge BLK votes in MI, WI and PA and OH and NC are different and Grassley isnt winning by 25 pts over Fink 5/7 pts ueah

You are joke Olowakandi! The Democrats are doomed no matter what happens with the Infrastructure Bill. IF they vote for it they will be labelled as "SOCIALISTS", IF they vote against it the Progressive Fraction of the Democratic Party might not come out and vote next year.

The Biden/Harris/Pelosi/Schumer Clown Show has already done massive OVERREACH in this Country over the last 8 months with the Vaccine Mandates. Biden is in a worse spot compared to Obama at the same time of their respective Presidencies.

Obama ended his 1st Year in Office (2009) with a +22.5 JA Rating according to Historical Data from the Real Clear Politics Website and Biden won't even come close to that as he is already underwater.

It all fell apart for Obama once the Democratic-led Congress passed the Affordable Care Act through Reconciliation.

Same thing will happen with the Budget/Infrastructure Bill.

Meanwhile when you look at Polls Inflation is the biggest Issue for Voters right now.

It's not a Red wave when Rs lose by a landslide in Cali Recall and lose by 5 in VA and losing by 9 in AZ, CO and PA and tied in WI and down by 2 in MI, Rs won MI, CO and VA Gov in 2010/2014, you think it is but I dont.
The only states you guys are up in are NV and NH and we are targeting OH and NC and Ryan leads by 1 in OH and tied in another

No polls in NC

CA really doesn't move in wave years. It just is what it is. It didn't really move in 2006 or 2010.

Not only that but the Republicans best cycle in California since 1998 happened in 2006 which further shows that California doesnt really get impacted by national conditions given how bad 2006 was for the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These R leads are suspect because Biden Approvals are down not just because of Afghanistan but the surge in Delta, Covid won't be over, but Delta cases are looking alot better now and will be gone soon

D's lead on Generic ballot by 4, and IA Grassley did win by 20 in 2016/ he ran against Patty Judge

Fink isn't Patty Judge, his lead is 10 not 20

Just like Sununu and Laxalt lead were in inflated leading by nine pts, CCM and Hassan aren't losing by nine

Wake me up if Aug of 2022/ when it gets closer to Election

[Calthrina950]

Finkenauer will get swamped just like all of Grassley's prior opponents have been over the past four decades, although it's possible that she will have the best performance out of any of them since his predecessor, Culver.

[THG]

It's going to be a bigger red wave than 2010. Iowa is a red state, yes, but it's not this red unless it's going to be a red wave of Biblical proportions.

Dude, I'm a Republican political insider with connections to Republican internal pollsters and some level of insider knowledge when it comes to campaigns, and while I can confirm that 2022 appears to be a red wave (so far), it isn't even going to be remotely close to 2010.

Education polarization alone makes another 2010/14 impossible- even if the GOP wins 54 senate seats, another Tea Party wave year simply isn't happening (as much as I personally wish it would occur, unlike you).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Snowlabrador, he is a pessimistic user, D's should win 51/52 Seats in the Sen and possibly more in a blue wave, Rs had a bigger Gerrymandering I'm 2010/2014/and they controlled WI, PA and MI

We control thise states now plus AZ, we were down to the bear minimum MI and PA. 3 seats each states now we have 8

CA Rs are gonna lose 5 or more seats

If Biden passed his domestic agenda which is stalled by Rs then a blue wave can develop

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's going to be a bigger red wave than 2010. Iowa is a red state, yes, but it's not this red unless it's going to be a red wave of Biblical proportions.

No it's not. Iowa is gone for Democrats (though even if it was still a swing state Grassley would be unbeatable) but it isn't a national bellwether anymore.