VA-PPP (D): McAullife +3

[wbrocks67]

McAuliffe (D) 45%
Youngkin (R) 42%

Democrats: 85% McAuliffe, 4% Youngkin, 11% not sure
Republicans: 86% Youngkin, 10% McAuliffe, 4% not sure
Independents: 40% McAuliffe, 37% Youngkin, 23% not sure

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/VirginiaPOCMemoResults.pdf

[Skill and Chance]

Yikes for T-Mac?  He needs to be doing better than that in a PPP poll.

[wbrocks67]

Yikes for T-Mac?  He needs to be doing better than that in a PPP poll.

Looking at the tabs, I assume Democrats will come home. T-Mac still up 3% when Dems are 11% undecided and Reps only 4%.

Also, Indies going for T-Mac would be great news for him, since exits even had Gillepsie winning in 2017.

[MT Treasurer]

Title should be PPP (D) because it was conducted for D-affiliated groups even if the margin/result is believable.

Biden approval is 47/46 (+1).

In any case, Youngkin has been very effective in going after McAuliffe, and a poll/margin like this is hardly consistent with him running "the worst gubernatorial campaign ever." I do think he knows what he’s doing, I just doubt it will be enough.

[wbrocks67]

Title should be PPP (D) because it was conducted for D-affiliated groups even if the margin/result is believable.

Biden approval is 47/46 (+1).

In any case, Youngkin has been very effective in going after McAuliffe, and a poll/margin like this is hardly consistent with him running "the worst gubernatorial campaign ever." I do think he knows what he’s doing, I just doubt it will be enough.

The problem for Youngkin in all of these polls is he's always around the 40-44% range. Nearly every time.

[MT Treasurer]

Title should be PPP (D) because it was conducted for D-affiliated groups even if the margin/result is believable.

Biden approval is 47/46 (+1).

In any case, Youngkin has been very effective in going after McAuliffe, and a poll/margin like this is hardly consistent with him running "the worst gubernatorial campaign ever." I do think he knows what he’s doing, I just doubt it will be enough.

The problem for Youngkin in all of these polls is he's always around the 40-44% range. Nearly every time.

This is certainly true. You could argue that McAuliffe struggling to break 50% somewhat offsets that, but it’s not a good sign for Youngkin. I’m still expecting partisanship to win out here, and of course I’m not saying that McAuliffe needs to run a particularly good campaign or anything to win this race (Hickenlooper basically sleepwalked in CO while Gardner pulled out all the stops and we know how that turned out). I’m expecting McAuliffe +3-4 when all is said and done, a swing roughly in line with the CA recall.

Will be interesting to see if we see a similar swing in NJ (would mean Murphy winning by 9-10, which is actually fairly plausible).

[vitoNova]

LOL pollsters intentionally stifling the D numbers in order to repent for 2016.

Daddy Mac by +15

[TML]

Remember that for this race in 2017, the final RCP polling average was D+3, yet the actual result was D+9.

[Skill and Chance]

Remember that for this race in 2017, the final RCP polling average was D+3, yet the actual result was D+9.

Well, yes, but I don't think we can expect that turnout pattern to repeat itself!

However, it is valid to note the VA polls didn't have a Shy R problem in the Trump era.  That hasn't been seen in VA since 2014. 

[Mr.Phips]

Remember that for this race in 2017, the final RCP polling average was D+3, yet the actual result was D+9.

Well, yes, but I don't think we can expect that turnout pattern to repeat itself!

However, it is valid to note the VA polls didn't have a Shy R problem in the Trump era.  That hasn't been seen in VA since 2014. 

Yeah polls in VA were pretty spot on in 2016 and 2020.

[Chips]

I have the race at a cautious Lean D right now. It could easily move to a pure toss-up if more high profile polling shows the race close or Likely D if McAuliffe rebounds and begins leading by high single-digits again.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm still not worried. McAuliffe will be fine. He'll pull away soon enough, just like what happened in the California.

[jamestroll]

TBH, I do not really get the same vibes as I did for MO-Gov 2016.. where back then I knew and felt like it was totally lost despite polling saying other wise.

This just feels like a very tight right race here but not necessarily a Democratic loss.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

among Afr Am: Youngkin getting 3%, but 27% are undecided, while 15% "Agree more that Glenn Youngkin is right to oppose Biden’s vaccine mandates and leave it up to individuals to decide".    Could be an opening for Youngkin to pick up some voters there.