WI - Clarity Campaign (D): Tie

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/KoryKozloski/status/1440077320904007681

If the D internal has a tied race, my guess is Barnes is down by mid to high single digits, since this is Wisconsin, where polling has historically overestimated Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good everyone says Barnes can't win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/KoryKozloski/status/1440077320904007681

If the D internal has a tied race, my guess is Barnes is down by mid to high single digits, since this is Wisconsin, where polling has historically overestimated Democrats.

Lol Barnes is not down in this race, Tammy Baldwin won by 10 pts

[Xing]

Wisconsin is a state where polls were wrong specifically in 2016 and 2020, so I don't think we're necessarily going to get the same kind of polling error in 2022. Then again, this is an internal, so a tied race is probably too rosy for Democrats here. Sticking with my prediction of a three-point win for the Republicans for now.

[Spectator]

This should be a layup for Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wisconsin is a state where polls were wrong specifically in 2016 and 2020, so I don't think we're necessarily going to get the same kind of polling error in 2022. Then again, this is an internal, so a tied race is probably too rosy for Democrats here. Sticking with my prediction of a three-point win for the Republicans for now.

You forgot that D's had Feingold and Herb Kohl 2 D Senators before and Tammy Baldwin won by 10 pts in 2018

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It’s a tied internal and we’re not even halfway to the actual election. That’s pretty grim for the Barnes campaign.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s a tied internal and we’re not even halfway to the actual election. That’s pretty grim for the Barnes campaign.

No it's not, just because it's an internal doesn't mean didly squat, WI is always a close state, I don't know why you like Johnson so much he praised Proud Boys and Insurrectionists every comment you made you like Johnson

Johnson in 3 polls hasn't lead in one, he was down 48/44 in two change and tied in this one and is below 50 he is at 40%

Cook has WI a tossup, Sabato has it Lean R

[MT Treasurer]

Lean R race remains Lean R. It won’t be a wide margin (I agree with 3-4 points) simply because ~47% of this state would vote for any Democrat in a federal race pretty much no matter what and the D base here tends to be very reliable, but it’s very unlikely it actually flips after two years of a D trifecta.

It’s a tied internal and we’re not even halfway to the actual election. That’s pretty grim for the Barnes campaign.

Hope we can convince the Resistance that WI is more winnable than NH.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R race remains Lean R. It won’t be a wide margin (I agree with 3-4 points) simply because ~47% of this state would vote for any Democrat in a federal race pretty much no matter what and the D base here tends to be very reliable, but it’s very unlikely it actually flips after two years of a D trifecta.

It’s a tied internal and we’re not even halfway to the actual election. That’s pretty grim for the Barnes campaign.

Hope we can convince the Resistance that WI is more winnable than NH.

What, Cook has this a WI Tossup, he changed the Ratings, Sabato has it LEAN R

Johnson hasn't lead in a Single poll

[Progressive Pessimist]

I knew this was an overrated potential pickup for the Democrats. Let's focus on defense, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania instead please.

[Xing]

I knew this was an overrated potential pickup for the Democrats. Let's focus on defense, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania instead please.

I think North Carolina is even more of a stretch than this race, to be honest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I knew this was an overrated potential pickup for the Democrats. Let's focus on defense, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania instead please.

I think North Carolina is even more of a stretch than this race, to be honest.

Johnson hasn't lead in a single poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I knew this was an overrated potential pickup for the Democrats. Let's focus on defense, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania instead please.

.
Johnson hasn't lead in a SINGLE POLL

[Progressive Pessimist]

I knew this was an overrated potential pickup for the Democrats. Let's focus on defense, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania instead please.

I think North Carolina is even more of a stretch than this race, to be honest.

Honestly, they both probably are. Every election cycle there is one Senate race which the Democrats were capable of winning that ends up being blown horribly-either of them will likely be that. But trends at least look slightly better for Democrats in North Carolina. There is a future there whereas Wisconsin's near-permanent sunset for Democrats might be coming soon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I knew this was an overrated potential pickup for the Democrats. Let's focus on defense, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania instead please.

I think North Carolina is even more of a stretch than this race, to be honest.

Honestly, they both probably are. Every election cycle there is one Senate race which the Democrats were capable of winning that ends up being blown horribly-either of them will likely be that. But trends at least look slightly better for Democrats in North Carolina. There is a future there whereas Wisconsin's near-permanent sunset for Democrats might be coming soon.

Cook has this race a Tossup downplaying WI isn't gonna make Johnson win and we have competetive Gov race

[GALeftist]

Unless something weird happens between now and the election the only offense the Democrats should be seriously considering is Pennsylvania

[NewYorkExpress]

Unless something weird happens between now and the election the only offense the Democrats should be seriously considering is Pennsylvania

I wouldn't even consider Pennsylvania competitive unless Biden's approval rises dramatically.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unless something weird happens between now and the election the only offense the Democrats should be seriously considering is Pennsylvania

D's aren't abandoning this race and Evers has a tough reelection this isn't IA