Mississippi Abortion Ban Case to be Heard December 1 by Supreme Court

[I’m not Stu]

It might be a 5-1-3 decision with John Roberts in the minority.

[MasterJedi]

You know the politicians are pleading with the court behind the scenes to not overturn it because it would instantly kill any type of lead the Republicans would have in 2022.

[new_patomic]

Roberts definitely looks like he's trying to thread a needle here of overturning viability, but creating some sort of new standard so Mississippi's 15 week ban gets upheld but abortion in the first trimester isn't (technically) touched.

Kavanaugh and Barrett don't sound interested.

[RI]

The pro-life side clearly has 5 votes. It's just a question of how far they want to go.

[afleitch]

You know the politicians are pleading with the court behind the scenes to not overturn it because it would instantly kill any type of lead the Republicans would have in 2022.

Possibly. I think those who court pro-life voters are more concerned with state legislators making hay with the most punitive laws they can.

If Roe goes, expect at least one state to draft laws so restrictive it effectively criminalises miscarriage and places murder charges on someone's head.

So for the GOP you mobilise the leopards eating people's faces of and the Democratic opposition.

[SnowLabrador]

You know the politicians are pleading with the court behind the scenes to not overturn it because it would instantly kill any type of lead the Republicans would have in 2022.

I'm not so sure about that. If anything it would benefit the GOP to be able to say that they delivered what their base wanted.

[Person Man]

You know the politicians are pleading with the court behind the scenes to not overturn it because it would instantly kill any type of lead the Republicans would have in 2022.

I'm not so sure about that. If anything it would benefit the GOP to be able to say that they delivered what their base wanted.

When has that worked, though? It used to be a common occurrence where some weird town legalized marijuana only for the voters to become complacent and the law to be simply reinstated at the next opportunity.

[I’m not Stu]

I thought the GOP base usually has more consistent turnout in Democratic midterms. Wouldn’t a broad decision cause the Democratic base to turn out?

[Person Man]

You know the politicians are pleading with the court behind the scenes to not overturn it because it would instantly kill any type of lead the Republicans would have in 2022.

Possibly. I think those who court pro-life voters are more concerned with state legislators making hay with the most punitive laws they can.

If Roe goes, expect at least one state to draft laws so restrictive it effectively criminalises miscarriage and places murder charges on someone's head.

So for the GOP you mobilise the leopards eating people's faces of and the Democratic opposition.

It would be naïve to think that this would compel only a few, if any, people to migrate. I foresee a potential future where the sex ratio in Illinois is like 120:100 and 85:100 in Indiana.

[MasterJedi]

You know the politicians are pleading with the court behind the scenes to not overturn it because it would instantly kill any type of lead the Republicans would have in 2022.

Possibly. I think those who court pro-life voters are more concerned with state legislators making hay with the most punitive laws they can.

If Roe goes, expect at least one state to draft laws so restrictive it effectively criminalises miscarriage and places murder charges on someone's head.

So for the GOP you mobilise the leopards eating people's faces of and the Democratic opposition.

Yes, I’m sure the south would institute their own fugitive abortion law where they would try and force other states to extradite women back to their masters.

[Person Man]

You know the politicians are pleading with the court behind the scenes to not overturn it because it would instantly kill any type of lead the Republicans would have in 2022.

Possibly. I think those who court pro-life voters are more concerned with state legislators making hay with the most punitive laws they can.

If Roe goes, expect at least one state to draft laws so restrictive it effectively criminalises miscarriage and places murder charges on someone's head.

So for the GOP you mobilise the leopards eating people's faces of and the Democratic opposition.

Yes, I’m sure the south would institute their own fugitive abortion law where they would try and force other states to extradite women back to their masters.

I can see them creating some sort of Interstate Child Protection Compact.... or the ICP. I mean, they are clowns, right?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ryanlcooper/status/1466098858593763345

[Dereich]

https://twitter.com/ryanlcooper/status/1466098858593763345

1. Ignore judicial review
2. Right wing states ignore Roe and ban abortion
3.
4. Right-wing judicial tyranny is gone and leftists rule supreme 

[lfromnj]

The pro-life side clearly has 5 votes. It's just a question of how far they want to go.

The pro life side would be mandating abortion bans through the 14th .

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/ryanlcooper/status/1466098858593763345

This feels deeply ironic, given that he’s seeking to protect one of the most important SCOTUS decisions of the past half century (and that in the original article he only mentions it once and in passing). And frankly rather dismissive of how difficult it was to achieve gay marriage and other LGBTQ rights milestones - ENDA has still never passed, while Bostock set a sweeping precedent and was decided 6-3.

[Person Man]

The pro-life side clearly has 5 votes. It's just a question of how far they want to go.

The pro life side would be mandating abortion bans through the 14th .

You actually think they would do that?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Thinking that it will be 6-3, with Roberts assigning the opinion to himself and writing something that stresses that “we’re not technically overturning Roe” as the conservatives overturn Roe.

[Person Man]

What are the chances that Altio, Thomas, and the Trump Trio get together and find that fetuses have a right to not be aborted?

[I’m not Stu]

Thinking that it will be 6-3, with Roberts assigning the opinion to himself and writing something that stresses that “we’re not technically overturning Roe” as the conservatives overturn Roe.

No other conservative appeared interested. I believe it will formally overturn it in a 5-1-3 decision.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Thinking that it will be 6-3, with Roberts assigning the opinion to himself and writing something that stresses that “we’re not technically overturning Roe” as the conservatives overturn Roe.

No other conservative appeared interested. I believe it will formally overturn it in a 5-1-3 decision.

You’re probably right, yeah.

[lfromnj]

The pro-life side clearly has 5 votes. It's just a question of how far they want to go.

The pro life side would be mandating abortion bans through the 14th .

You actually think they would do that?

No, was just saying it. Anyway interestingly I actually wonder if the 14th argument if it somehow came to be would merely mean that murder laws apply to fetus's. Would Democratic states repeal their murder laws? Would Democratic governors just promise unconditional pardons for abortions?

[I’m not Stu]

If Roberts is in the minority, the decision will look even more partisan.

[Donerail]

Thinking that it will be 6-3, with Roberts assigning the opinion to himself and writing something that stresses that “we’re not technically overturning Roe” as the conservatives overturn Roe.

Barrett will write. It's why she's there.

[Person Man]

The pro-life side clearly has 5 votes. It's just a question of how far they want to go.

The pro life side would be mandating abortion bans through the 14th .

You actually think they would do that?

No, was just saying it. Anyway interestingly I actually wonder if the 14th argument if it somehow came to be would merely mean that murder laws apply to fetus's. Would Democratic states repeal their murder laws? Would Democratic governors just promise unconditional pardons for abortions?

You mean amnesty?

The other interesting thing you brought up is that in most places abortion would be illegal, it would be a felony. If it's a felony, especially a heinous one (Decades in Prison/Life/Death), you would have to have a jury trial. How would you even have a fair trial? Especially in a place like Georgia, Arizona, or even Texas. The chances of getting a jury willing to convict (at least in a place like Tuscon, Austin, or Atlanta) is very low and chances of juries ignoring the instructions and voting to acquit or not reach a verdict is high. Of course prosecutors and senior police from liberal areas will simply refuse to go after safe illegal abortion practices. That conservative state Governments would probably be forced to rely on the highway patrol, national guard, and special lawyers to prosecute abortion but then we would still be back to jurors claiming to do their jobs but then nullifying the case.

One interesting they could do is make abortion a misdemeanor so long as no one gets hurt or its not too late in gestation. For example, they could say that mailing or possessing less than a certain doses of abortion pills is a misdemeanor and then they wouldn't have to deal with juries. Even though the charges would be misdemeanors, they are certain misdemeanors that are considered felonies for certain social credit check situations, like licensure, firearm procurement, a getting a job or lease.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I listened to the arguments today, and I'm roughly thinking that it's going to be a 5-1-3 decision.  That is 6-3 in favor of upholding the MS law, but just 5-4 in favor of overruling Roe and returning abortion to the states.  I'm thinking one of the Trump appointees will write the majority decision.  Thomas will probably write a concurring decision saying that the 14th Amendment requires abortion to be banned nationwide, which Alito and/or Barrett may or may not join.  But, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh won't go for that position.